乐观主义、风险与法制现代化——评公丕祥《法制现代化的理论逻辑》

作为"法制现代化"论说的代表之作,《法制现代化的理论逻辑》一书存在着法制乐观主义倾向。无论其思想来源,对传统与现代性的看法,以及对人性改造的主张等,都带有乐观主义倾向。这种乐观主义的理论盲点集中体现在其忽视了对风险的认识。因此,需要检讨法制现代化的基本立场,对其注入社会危机、风险等理论元素。     

Intimate Partner Violence in Extremely Poor Women: Longitudinal Patterns and Risk Markers

Despite high revalence rates of intimate partner violence in the lives of extremely poor women with dependent children, few studies have investigated the patterns of violence that occur over time, and the characteristics of women that serve as risk markers for partner violence. This paper describes patterns of domestic violence longitudinally and uses multivariate analyses to delineate childhood and adult risk markers for recent intimate partner violence in this population of women. Analyses draw upon a sample of 436 homeless and extremely poor housed mothers receiving welfare, in a mid-sized city in Massachusetts with a large Hispanic population of Puerto Rican descent and relatively fewer Blacks. We found that among women with complete longitudinal data (N=280), almost two-thirds experienced intimate partner violence at some point during their adult life by the end of study follow-up, and that the abuse before and after the baseline interview was episodic and limited over time. To examine the role of individual women's factors, while controlling for partner characteristics, we used baseline data on women who had been partnered during the past year (N=336). Among childhood predictors, we found that sexual molestation contributed most significantly to adult intimate partner violence that occurred during the past year prior to the baseline interview. Adult risk markers included inadequate emotional support from non-professionals, poor self-esteem, and a partner with substance abuse problems. Having a partner with poor work history was another independent predictor of recent abuse. Ethnicity did not significantly predict whether women were abused or not during the past year, contrary to other findings reported in the literature.     

The Role of Perceived Parental Knowledge on Emerging Adults’ Risk Behaviors

The purpose of this study was to gain a clearer understanding of the relation between parents’ knowledge of their emerging-adult children and emerging adults’ risk behaviors. Participants included 200 undergraduate students between the ages of 18 and 25 (121 women, 78 men; M _age = 19.59, SD = 1.62) and both of their parents. Results revealed that knowledge of the emerging-adult child’s activities varied as a function of parent- and child-reports, and that child outcomes associated with parental knowledge were generally positive, including less drinking, drug use, and risky sexual behavior (although this varied as a function of reporter). The links between maternal knowledge and lower drug and alcohol use were particularly strong in the presence of maternal closeness. Implications for understanding the parent–child relationship during the transition to adulthood were discussed.

关于缓解县乡财政困难的思考

近年来县乡财政形势严峻,收支矛盾尖锐、债务负担沉重、虚收与财政风险等问题十分突出。缓解县乡财政困难根本在于县域经济持续快速健康发展,内在动力是不断深化改革:加大结构调整力度,强化收入监管力度,完善现行的“分税制”财政体制,加快地方公共财政体系建设,大力推进县乡机构改革和事业单位改革。     

山东服务业发展研究

我省服务业总体上规模偏小、结构层次较低、竞争能力不强,思想观念、管理体制、政策环境等制约发展的问题还十分突出。目前,服务业将会出现一个高速增长的时期,我省正面临着前所未有的机遇。因此,需要加快行政管理体制改革,加快服务业的开放力度,加大服务业投入,进一步优化服务业发展环境,走创新发展之路来促进山东服务业发展。     

Psychologists as ‘the quiet ones with the power’: understanding indeterminate sentenced prisoners’ experiences of psychological risk assessment in the United Kingdom

ABSTRACT

Prisoners serving indeterminate sentences in the United Kingdom do not know when or if they will be released from prison. Release and progression decisions are determined by the risk the ISP presents of reoffending. This makes the assessment of risk a high stakes business for ISPs. Whilst there is a large body of literature focused on prisoners’ general experiences of prison, there is an absence of specific empirical exploration of prisoners’ experiences of risk assessment. This paper aims to address this gap by reporting the results of a qualitative exploration of ISPs’ experiences of psychological risk assessment. Interviews with 10 ISPs were conducted and analysed using Grounded Theory methods. Analysis indicated that prisoners experienced the prison environment as characterised by violence, volatility and suffering. Psychological risk assessment is embedded within this emotionally and physically challenging context but also contributes to the experience of suffering. Within this context, prisoners felt stuck, powerless and out of control in relation to risk assessment, and experienced psychologists as untrustworthy yet powerful. Understanding prisoners’ experiences is the first step in resolving some of the long-reported difficulties in working relationships between psychologists and prisoners as well as making the process more procedurally just.     

美国的商业银行管制给我们的启示

商业银行的改革方向该往何处去,对商业银行如何监管,这是摆在金融改革面前最严峻的问题,未来的商业银行可能成为城市的银行、利益集团的银行、富人的银行。如果真的这样会在中国金融业推出许多新东西,这更需要国家进行更严格的适度的监管,美国的银行监管体制一直在不断地改革和调整,他们的经验对我们仍然是很好的启示。     

2020年香港经济形势分析及未来展望

报告从宏观层面对2020年香港经济形势进行了分析,对2021年香港经济发展前景做了展望,对香港经济中期发展面临的风险和机遇进行了研判,并提出了一些对策和建议。分析表明,香港经济在2020年陷入深度衰退,在2021年将迎来复苏,复苏程度取决于疫情防控状况。香港经济未来几年的发展风险与机遇并存:一方面,中美竞争加剧、社会贫富差距加大、政府财政赤字持续等是不利因素;另一方面,我国"十四五"规划的出台和粤港澳大湾区建设的深入推进将帮助香港进一步融入国家发展大局,获得更广阔的发展空间。     

A Rationale and Method for Examining Reasons for Linkages Among Adolescent Risk Behaviors

A large volume of research has investigated interrelations among adolescent risk behaviors. Although several theoretical accounts have been proposed, researchers have not directly examined hypotheses for why risk behaviors are linked. In the present paper, a distinction is drawn between predictive factors that explain variance in risk behaviors and “linkage factors” which may provide an explanation for why risk behaviors are interrelated. The relevance of linkage factors to risk behavior research, theory, and practice is described. Further, a simple to use and easy to interpret analytic technique for exploring linkage-related issues is illustrated. Using this technique, hypotheses regarding the role of predictors in explaining linkages among risk behaviors can be tested directly. The proposed line of inquiry will provide valuable input for intervention efforts and theoretically relevant information concerning linkages among adolescent risk behaviors. Research Associate at the Brock Research Institute for Youth Studies at Brock University, Ontario, Canada. He received his M.A. in Clinical Psychology from the University of North Dakota. His major research interests are adolescent risk behavior involvement and youth activity involvement as a context for positive development. Professor in the Department of Child and Youth Studies at Brock University, Ontario, Canada. She received her Ph.D. in Developmental Psychology from the University of Waterloo. Her major research interests include adolescent risk taking and resilience, including academic underachievement and media/technology influences on lifestyle choices and learning. Assistant Professor in the Department of Child and Youth Studies at Brock University, Ontario, Canada. She received her Ph.D. in Developmental Psychology from Brock University. Her major research interests are adolescent risk-behavior involvement, particularly related to gambling, and risk and resilience.     

Mental Disorder, Violence, and Gender

Recent studies have reported comparable rates of violence among men and women with mental disorder, raising important issues for clinical risk assessment. This study examines the relationship between gender and violence using data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study. Patients in acute psychiatric wards were interviewed 5 times over the year following their discharge to the community. Results showed some differences between men and women in the violence committed immediately following discharge, with rates for men being higher. But the prevalence of violence over the 1 year was similar for female and male discharged patients. However, there were substantial gender differences in the situational context of the violence committed. Men were more likely to have been drinking or using street drugs, and less likely to have been adhering to prescribed psychotropic medication, prior to committing violence. The violence committed by men was more likely to result in serious injury than the violence committed by women, and men were more likely than women to be arrested after committing a violent act. Women were more likely to target family members and to be violent in the home.