地区犯罪规模影响因素的混沌分析

区域社会和经济存在与发展的因素对犯罪规模有着不同程度的影响。文章基于这一事实将警务效率、人均GDP、受教育状况、人口密度和基尼系数作为地区犯罪规模的评价因素，采用复回归方法建立了地区犯罪率模型，通过模糊动态聚类分析得到了影响犯罪规模各因素的混沌特征，从这种混沌优化的学习过程中确定了各个影响因素的权重，将它作为地区犯罪规模影响因素的程度。结果表明，警务效率对犯罪率的影响最大，其次是人口密度和受教育程度的影响．     

风险的属性及其对政府重大决策社会风险评估的启示

政府的重大决策事关改革发展大局,事关社会的稳定和谐。因此,政府的重大决策应该进行社会风险评估。风险是一个心理学概念,以感知为基础,而不是以事实为基础,这种感知是以认识到的危险的质性特征而不是量化特征为基础。如果政府的重大决策具有一定的社会性风险,那么在重大决策的风险评估和管理过程中,应该考虑政策信息披露的可信性、特异性和行动信息的具体性。在政府重大决策的社会风险评估过程中,应该注意:(1)风险评估主体除了官员和专家,应该把一般民众纳入进来;(2)政府机构与普通民众之间信任关系的建立是关键;(3)在政府重大决策的社会风险评估中,应该正确使用媒体的力量;(4)树立公共优先的原则,协调重大决策各方之间的利益关系。     

A Rationale and Method for Examining Reasons for Linkages Among Adolescent Risk Behaviors

A large volume of research has investigated interrelations among adolescent risk behaviors. Although several theoretical accounts have been proposed, researchers have not directly examined hypotheses for why risk behaviors are linked. In the present paper, a distinction is drawn between predictive factors that explain variance in risk behaviors and “linkage factors” which may provide an explanation for why risk behaviors are interrelated. The relevance of linkage factors to risk behavior research, theory, and practice is described. Further, a simple to use and easy to interpret analytic technique for exploring linkage-related issues is illustrated. Using this technique, hypotheses regarding the role of predictors in explaining linkages among risk behaviors can be tested directly. The proposed line of inquiry will provide valuable input for intervention efforts and theoretically relevant information concerning linkages among adolescent risk behaviors. Research Associate at the Brock Research Institute for Youth Studies at Brock University, Ontario, Canada. He received his M.A. in Clinical Psychology from the University of North Dakota. His major research interests are adolescent risk behavior involvement and youth activity involvement as a context for positive development. Professor in the Department of Child and Youth Studies at Brock University, Ontario, Canada. She received her Ph.D. in Developmental Psychology from the University of Waterloo. Her major research interests include adolescent risk taking and resilience, including academic underachievement and media/technology influences on lifestyle choices and learning. Assistant Professor in the Department of Child and Youth Studies at Brock University, Ontario, Canada. She received her Ph.D. in Developmental Psychology from Brock University. Her major research interests are adolescent risk-behavior involvement, particularly related to gambling, and risk and resilience.     

怎样科学地认识我国生产力跨越式发展问题--从马克思恩格斯的跨越理论谈起

生产力的发展是连续的、渐进的自然历史过程,但不排除发展中的间断性、反复性和跳跃性。我国生产力的发展状况,已经基本具备与当今世界先进生产力接轨的条件。但是必须注意生产力跨越式发展的限度、风险和不平衡问题。     

Mental Disorder, Violence, and Gender

Recent studies have reported comparable rates of violence among men and women with mental disorder, raising important issues for clinical risk assessment. This study examines the relationship between gender and violence using data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study. Patients in acute psychiatric wards were interviewed 5 times over the year following their discharge to the community. Results showed some differences between men and women in the violence committed immediately following discharge, with rates for men being higher. But the prevalence of violence over the 1 year was similar for female and male discharged patients. However, there were substantial gender differences in the situational context of the violence committed. Men were more likely to have been drinking or using street drugs, and less likely to have been adhering to prescribed psychotropic medication, prior to committing violence. The violence committed by men was more likely to result in serious injury than the violence committed by women, and men were more likely than women to be arrested after committing a violent act. Women were more likely to target family members and to be violent in the home.     

日本新国家安全战略及其对中国的“强烈关注”

日本2001年度<防卫白皮书>中有关中国军事力量的描述与评论表明,现今的日本已将中国看作事实上的防卫对象和对其构成"潜在"威胁的国家,中国在日本安全战略中地位上升.日本政府的这一动向,表明了日本对现今国际局势、东亚地区安全,特别是对中、日、俄等国国家力量消长变化的认识和因此进行的政策调整,突出反映了日本对华政策中的防范和制约内容,这对未来的中日关系将产生消极影响.     

论票据伪造的风险负担

票据是具有流通性的有价证券,易被他人伪造。当出现票据伪造时,票据当事人之间的风险责任与损失分担问题就变得较为复杂。由善意的付款人还是善意的持票人承担较为合理,两大票据法系规定不一。将两大票据法系票据伪造风险负担规则进行比较,对我国票据立法的相关规定进行评析,维护当事人之间的利益平衡,更好地保障票据的流通与交易安全。     

风险文化与马克思主义时代化的路径选择

摘要：理论形态的发展与文化形态的发展具有时代同步性。马克思主义理论形态产生于理性主义和社会主义的文化氛围，而当代的风险文化是构建马克思主义新形态的文化土壤，由此显现了以文化路径推进马克思主义时代化的可能性。风险文化是时代化马克思主义的文化内核，风险文化学是当代马克思主义的新形态，它以风险意识为核心概念，并以马克思主义风险文化思想为理论主体，同时以科学发展为实践归宿。     

后危机时代商业银行信用风险管理研究——基于风险一收益均衡控制视角

后危机时代经济运行态势的不确定性对银行业的信用风险管理体系提出了新的挑战。商业银行要主动研究新能源、新技术、新产业市场拓展问题，培育新兴信贷市场，加快信贷结构调整来应对信贷大投放后的信贷业务持续发展，并研究在经济周期下行压力下企业及其关联方风险承受能力的状况，提升信贷风险识别和风险计量水平，创新信贷定价模式，优化经济资本配置。     

中国未来和平发展面临的主要制约因素

经过30年改革开放，中国的和平发展业已取得了辉煌成就。展望未来，中国的和平发展道路依然曲折而漫长，面临国际国内诸多制约因素，需要切实统筹内外两个大局，心中有数，真抓实干，迎难而上，为中华民族迎来全面复兴打下更加坚实的基础。