印度尼西亚汽车市场的商机

印度尼西亚作为全球第四人口大国、东盟最大经济体，近年来经济一直保持快速增长。尽管受到世界金融危机、全球经济不景气的影响，印尼经济增速放缓，但依然是亚洲地区经济增长最快的国家之一，并得到越来越多的国际投资者的青睐和关注。本文在分析印尼经济增长趋势后，重点分析印尼汽车行业的产销量、市场格局和特点，结合印尼汽车市场的消费习惯，对中国汽车企业进军印尼市场提出风险提示和相应的对策。     

Does Intimate Partner Violence Epidemiology Differ Between Homes With and Without Children? A Population-Based Study of Annual Prevalence and Associated Risk Factors

We sought to determine whether intimate partner violence (IPV) risk factors differed depending upon the presence of children in the home, and to estimate the annual prevalence of IPV first in the general population and then in homes with and without children. We analyzed data from a cross-sectional random sample of 6,836 women in southeastern Pennsylvania interviewed by telephone in 2004. The magnitude of association between IPV and risk factors varied between homes with and without children for women’s alcohol problems (with children, odds ratio (OR) 7.7; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.9, 20.9; without children, OR 2.4; 95% CI 0.9, 6.0), and mental health problems (with children, OR 4.0; 95% CI 1.8, 8.9; without children, OR 3.0; 95% CI 1.6, 5.7). Poverty was significantly associated with IPV only in homes without children (OR 3.6; 95% CI 1.9, 7.2). Annual IPV prevalence was 1.2% overall, 1.4% in homes with children, and 1.1% in homes without children. One in 63 children lived in a home with IPV. Differences in IPV risk factors in homes with and without children suggest distinct underlying IPV mechanisms or consequences in these contexts.     

国产动画《喜羊羊与灰太狼》成功要素分析

中国原创动画《喜羊羊与灰太狼》（以下简称《喜与灰》）的成功，打破了国产动画多年低迷的窘境，让国产动画盼到了曙光。几年来，《喜与灰》走出了一条大胆的、开放式的商业化运作路线，树立了中国原创动画未来运作的典范，它的成功值得我们深度分析和借鉴。     

侦查程序中律师帮助权若干问题研究

侦查程序中 ,犯罪嫌疑人的人权最容易被忽视。就我国的司法实践而言 ,起诉和审判在很大程度上依赖侦查的结果 ,侦查程序是真正决定犯罪嫌疑人、被告人命运的关键程序。我国刑事诉讼法在增加庭审抗辩色彩的同时 ,却没有相应地增加侦查程序中的对抗因素 ,犯罪嫌疑人在侦查程序中的律师帮助权与其他国家相比尚存在亟待改进之处。     

Childhood Sexual Abuse and HIV Risk Among Men Who Have Sex with Men: Initial Test of a Conceptual Model

Childhood sexual abuse has been associated with HIV transmission risk behavior in men who have sex with men. This study examined an adapted model that was originally developed to explain the relationship between childhood sexual abuse and HIV risk behavior among women in a sample of men who have sex with men. Men attending a large gay pride event (n=647) completed anonymous surveys that assessed demographic characteristics, childhood sexual abuse, symptoms of dissociation, trauma-related anxiety, borderline personality characteristics, hopelessness, substance use, and sexual risk behavior. A latent variable partial least squares analysis was conducted to test the interrelationships between childhood sexual abuse, exchanging sex for money or drugs, emotional disturbances, drug use, substance use in the context of sexual behavior, and sexual risk behavior. The model fit the data well and accounted for 10% of the total variance in sexual risk behavior. History of childhood sexual abuse predicted exchanging sex for money or drugs and this relationship was partly accounted for by active drug use. Substance use proximal to sexual behavior also emerged as a key factor in predicting sexual risk behavior. Findings from this study, therefore, indicate a direct association between history of child sexual abuse and high risk for HIV infection related to engaging in sex trade.     

关于我国财政风险成因的几点思考——我国国有企业财务风险与财政风险转换机制分析

财政风险和国有企业财务风险是两个不同层次的风险,但两者之间存在着相互转化的关系。我国这两种风险的转化中存在着一定的不合理性,其根源在于制度缺陷,这将是以后改革的重点。研究国有企业财务风险的成因,分析国企财务风险与国家财政风险之间相互转化的机理,斩断其向财政风险的转化链条,对我国财政风险的根本好转有着极为重要的意义。     

The Family Court–Based Stepping Stones Model of Triage: Some Concerns About Safety,Process, and Objectives*

This article critically evaluates the recommendation that family court–based mandatory mediation incorporated in a tiered service delivery model be replaced by a mandatory screening process incorporated in a stepping stones triage model in which couples are matched with an appropriate conflict resolution proceeding. My conclusion is that implementation of this recommendation should be made contingent upon the willingness of its advocates to address concerns with the safety, process, and objectives as described herein.

Key Points for the Family Court Community:
• Domestic violence screening should be incorporated in the larger triadic process of screening–risk assessment–risk management.
• A Safety First Rule should be followed in screening couples into or out of conflict resolution proceedings.
• Screening decisions must be grounded in an empirically validated method of matching couples with appropriate conflict resolution proceedings.
• Causal mechanisms must be included as items in any risk assessment instrument used in family courts.

     

解析经济责任审计风险

经济责任审计是对领导干部进行经济行为监督和经济责任评价的重要手段,在社会主义市场经济中发挥着重要作用。由于审计人员本身的失误或其他客观原因,许多因素能导致审计风险。因此,为了达到审计目的,保证审计效果,必须采取有效措施来防范审计风险。     

中央代发地方政府债券的理论分析与实践探讨——以2009年地方政府债券为例

受当前国际金融危机影响，我国经济发展速度放缓。政府作出中央财政部代理地方政府债券的发行这一决议来刺激地方经济发展，开放地方政府债券市场时机日益成熟。本文从金融危机、准市政债券、中央债务依存度及区域经济发展差异这四方面作为发行地方政府债券的背景入手，从理论和实践两方面分析了我国发行地方政府债券产生的拉动经济增长、完善地方财政职能、完备我国资本市场的经济效果及可能面临的经济、社会风险，并提出了相应的政策建议。