Dealing with natural disasters

Over the past two decades, natural disasters have severely hit the Southeast Asian region causing dramatic environmental, economic and social consequences. Through the lens of Beck's risk society framework and the theory of reflexive modernization, this article attempts at empirically taking stock of how the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is addressing disaster risk through the creation of new regional institutions and mechanisms. In particular, it argues that the accumulation of the experience of catastrophes is leading ASEAN members towards the development of new precautionary initiatives to deal with disasters, and to forge a new way forward for the promotion of disaster cooperation and joint emergency response. The article is divided into five sections, which will only consider initiatives endorsed within the ASEAN framework. The first introduces risk societies as forms of modern societies and of the insecurities of the present world. In the second section attention is drawn to natural disasters as a paradigmatic example of Beck's risk society. The third section explores how ASEAN normative governance is evolving to include the issue of disaster management within its security and social agenda. Then the main institutional and operational innovations and tools through which ASEAN is preparing to deal with disaster risk are explored. Finally, the article suggests that despite ASEAN overall institutional innovations, the practice of cooperation still is effected by several factors, above all the lack of adequate resources and the difficulty of reconciling principles of solidarity with national sovereignty, which hinder ASEAN effectiveness in this area.     

Construct validity and internal reliability of the Finnish risk and needs assessment form

Validation of risk and needs assessment instruments used to predict, and reduce, recidivism and misconduct is of ethical, practical and scientific importance. We argue for a focus on variable (i.e. changeable over time) risk factors, and that validation begins with establishing construct validity. The Finnish Risk and Needs Assessment Form, in Finnish Riski- ja tarvearvio (RITA), is a semi-structured interview form adapted from the Offender Assessment System used in England and Wales and consists primarily of variable risk factors. In this study, we examined the construct validity and internal reliability of RITA. The results suggest that the original RITA sections do not provide an adequate statistical model for describing the relationship between scored questions, and we, therefore, offer an improved model. In our proposed model, several scores are influenced by more than one dimension of risk and the dimensions correlate with each other considerably. We suggest that the dimensions that can be measured with RITA are Problems managing economy, Alcohol problems, Resistance to change, Drug abuse and associated behaviour, Aggressiveness and Employment problems. All factors except Drug abuse and associated behaviour had very good internal reliability. We propose this new model to be used in future research with, and in development of, RITA.     

美国次贷危机对我国的启示

美国次级债券引发的风波已经波及全球,世界上主要的金融领域公司业绩产生了巨大损失,美国房地产市场也已开始走向衰落。深入探究此次危机,可以使我们更清楚地了解美国房地产泡沫从产生到破灭的全过程,使我们能够正确看待住房贷款市场的风险和金融创新的两面性,这些都对正处在“风口浪尖”的我国经济有着深刻的警示意义。     

信任与稳定--销售渠道的制胜根基

在销售渠道的网络结构中,制造商和代理商之间的信任尤为重要。信任是稳定销售渠道的前提。公司加强与代理商之间的信任关系,重在信守承诺,向代理商表示信任,共同承担经营风险,实行人员交流,加强信息协调。还应当加强销售渠道的冲突管理,即加强销售渠道设计,优化销售渠道管理,加强渠道成员间的信息沟通,积极开展对中间商的服务。     

“香烟”弥漫的青春:作为一种“过渡期仪式”的青少年香烟消费

青少年吸烟不仅是一种健康风险行为,也是一个备受争议的学术话题。本文将青少年男性的吸烟行为视为一种"过渡期仪式",并从仪式道具、仪式剧本、仪式表演角色和仪式观众四个维度分析了青少年男性是如何借助仪式实践而顺利实现青春期的角色转变和身份认同。文章最后对过渡期仪式实践的起始与终结、男性气质与健康风险行为的内在关联进行了深入的思考。     

美国的商业银行管制给我们的启示

商业银行的改革方向该往何处去,对商业银行如何监管,这是摆在金融改革面前最严峻的问题,未来的商业银行可能成为城市的银行、利益集团的银行、富人的银行。如果真的这样会在中国金融业推出许多新东西,这更需要国家进行更严格的适度的监管,美国的银行监管体制一直在不断地改革和调整,他们的经验对我们仍然是很好的启示。     

Medical–Legal Partnerships: How Legal Services can Dramatically Improve Health Outcomes,and the Missed Opportunity to Help Women Seeking Abortions

There are significant health disparities in the United States, with low‐income and minority Americans experiencing higher rates of chronic disease and autoimmune disorders. Research has firmly established that social factors ‐ such as malnutrition, limited access to healthcare, and safe housing ‐ play a critical role in these health disparities. Medical‐Legal Partnerships are a relatively new approach to improving the health of people living in poverty by addressing the root causes of these health‐harming social factors. This article discusses the benefits of Medical‐Legal Partnerships and argues for continued expansion of the model, particularly in pediatricians’ offices, because parents are more likely to seek medical care for their children than themselves. This article further discusses how legal constraints prevent federal funding for Medical‐Legal Partnerships in abortion clinics; this creates a missed opportunity to work with women who are seeking abortions, many of whom face considerable social and economic challenges that could be addressed through legal assistance. This article digs into the legal restrictions that create this missed opportunity and proposes potential solutions to better serve the vulnerable population of abortion‐seeking women.     

Optimizing risk mitigation in management of sexual offenders: a structural model

Sexual violence is an insidious and pervasive problem that insinuates itself into all aspects of contemporary society. It can neither be mitigated nor adequately controlled through current socio-legal practices. A more promising approach must embrace four integrated elements: (1) public policy, (2) primary prevention, (3) statutory management, and (3) secondary intervention. In the present paper we tackle the 3rd and 4th elements by proposing an integrated model for reducing and managing sexual violence among known sex offenders. Relying on the highly effective Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model as the core of our Sex Offender Risk Mitigation and Management Model (SORM³), we draw together evidence based practices from clinical interventions and risk assessment strategies. Developed by Andrews & Bonta (2006), RNR has a strong empirical track record of efficacy when applied to diverse samples of offenders, including sex offenders (Hanson, Bourgon, Helmus, & Hodgson, 2009). We offer a detailed structural model that seeks to provide a more seamless integration of risk assessment with management and discretionary decisions, including a primary focus on RNR-based post-release aftercare. We end with the mantra that sex offender treatment alone will never effectively mitigate sexual violence in society, since the problem is not confined to the handful of offenders who spend time in prison and are offered some limited exposure to treatment. Any truly effective model must go well beyond the management of those known to be violent and embrace a comprehensive and integrated approach that begins by recognizing the seeds of sexual violence sown by society. Such a public health paradigm places victims - not offenders - at the center, forcing society to come to address the full gamut of hazards that fuel sexual violence.     

城市居民住房满意度及其影响因素

让居民对其住房感到满意是建设和谐社会的一项重要内容。与一般商品的消费不同,居民对其住房满意与否不仅涉及到住房的品质和价格,还涉及到与此相关的外部环境,如小区环境、物业管理以及配套设施等因素。基于"适当性-重要性加权"模型,本研究从一个较为全面的视角探讨了城镇居民住房满意度水平的影响因素。研究发现:(1)住房的面积、住房的品质、小区环境以及物业管理等因素对居民住房满意度有着显著的影响。不过,这些因素的影响不及居民的家庭成员人数和对经济负担的主观感受等因素,更不及住房相关的公共配套设施对居民住房满意度的影响;(2)公共配套设施因素中的次类因素,如基础教育、医疗卫生以及生活服务设施等,对居民的住房满意度都有显著的影响。     

Risk Assessment for Juvenile Justice: A Meta-Analysis

Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.