Supply Response and Risk in Chinese Agriculture

The main objective of this paper is to model the production and supply response in Chinese agriculture, which includes not only the standard arguments like expected prices but also risk. We extend Lin's work [1991, 1992] by modelling supply response as a three-equation model. We fit our model to data for 28 Chinese provinces from 1970 to 1997 to determine whether national Chinese agricultural supply is price and price risk responsive. Further, we fit our model to data for North, Northeast, South and Southeast regions. Results from the three systems equations are compared to single equation estimations. At the national level, Chinese agriculture is found to be price and price risk responsive. The regional analyses suggest that significant regional differences exist. Unlike Lin, we do not find the household responsibility system (HRS) to be the dominant factor in increased yields in different regions of China.     

“第三条道路”与朴槿惠政府对朝政策走向

朴槿惠在韩国总统竞选期间与胜选后多次指出,要改善对朝关系,既不继续大国家党李明博政府的强硬政策,也不采取民主党金大中政府与卢武铉政府的“阳光政策。’’,宣称要走“第三条道路”。本文首先分析另外“两条道路”,即“阳光政策”与李明博对朝政策之间的主要分歧。以此为背景,本文从影响朴槿惠对朝政策的因素入手,指出朴槿惠对朝政策“第三条道路”的出发点是要改变另外“两条道路”非“软”即“硬”的做法。总体方向上很可能是安全上继续保持强大威慑与高压态势,但在经济合作等层面释放更大善意与灵活性。在不降低李明博政府强硬政策“硬”的一面的同时,继承“阳光政策”“软”的一面,甚至会更软。最后部分也指出了在朝鲜第三次核试验后“第三条道路”的实施前景。     

中国企业在发展中国家投资矿业的风险与应对策略

近年来,中国企业对外矿业投资发展迅速。鉴于市场竞争程度、开发成本及自身实力等原因,许多中国企业选择了在发展中国家进行投资。本文对中国企业在发展中国家开发矿产资源过程中的风险和问题进行分析,并提出应对建议。     

Risky business: Covering slow‐onset hazards as rapidly developing news

The emerging field of risk communication has yet to thoroughly grapple with how the mass media report risk. Through a content analysis of five newspapers noted for their science reporting, newspaper coverage of four environmental hazards is compared to media coverage of more traditional risky events. In general, these slow‐to‐develop stories are reported in much the same way as more traditional disaster stories. News accounts emphasized an event orientation, framed risks in terms of human activity rather than social and political contexts, described risk in terms of harms and benefits, and relied on traditional sources. The authors then explore how this version of mass‐mediated risk might change current definitions of risk communication and how a mediated construction of risk may influence public perception of the political choices these issues raise.     

Catastrophe risk

This paper examines the recent emergence of initiatives involving the reinsurance industry and the capital markets to develop mechanisms to finance the losses arising from catastrophic events. These initiatives are discussed from two perspectives. One perspective explores these financing mechanisms from the contention that catastrophic events are becoming increasingly non-insurable within contemporary risk society. In this regard the paper addresses issues relating to the coherence and sustainability of the risk networks underpinning efforts to maintain the insurability of catastrophic events. These catastrophe-financing initiatives are also discussed from a second, although related perspective. This refers to the very emergence of these different financing mechanisms. In this regard the moving potential of liberal government or the inventive mechanics driving the development of different ways to manage catastrophic risk become significant. The paper argues that the emergence of these different catastrophe-financing mechanisms is occurring at the intersection of concerns over the non-insurability of the catastrophic and the extremes of capitalist ingenuity, suggesting both perspectives might offer insights into some of the possible future trajectories of risk society.     

The moral hazards of neo-liberalism: lessons from the private insurance industry

The key tenets of neo-liberalism regarding risk, governance, and responsibility are critically evaluated through an empirical study of the private insurance industry. Recent tendencies in this industry towards increasing segmentation of consumers regarding risk, and towards an expansion of private policing of insurance fraud, are analysed. The definition of moral hazard is broadened to include all parties in the insurance relationship, not just the insured. Moral hazards embedded in the social organization of private insurance lead to various kinds of immoral risky behaviour by insureds, insurance companies, and their employees, and to intensified efforts to regulate this behaviour. The analysis concludes with some critical observations about the neo-liberal emphasis on minimal state, market fundamentalism, risk-taking, individual responsibility, and acceptance of inequality.     

Risk,Reflexivity and Sub-politics: Environmental Politics in Hong Kong

Increasing attention has been drawn to the risk posed by air pollution, a risk that has wide-ranging effects (on the environment, health, the economy, culture, urban design and politics). New environmental movements and political agendas have emerged in the past 10 years. A growing number of social groups have been formed to express their concerns and challenge established laws and rules. This paper will borrow Ulrich Beck's concepts of risk, reflexivity and sub-politics to analyse the new social movement that addresses air quality in Hong Kong. While previous environmental problems were considered manageable, air pollution is a risk that seems to defy solution. As a result of the institutional failure to deal with this risk, there has been a new alignment of interests and the emergence of a new form of politics—a sub-politics that leads to a sharing of power between established and informal politics, and the government and society. Although established political institutions have been receptive, altering the rules and increasing public participation, the extent of sub-politicization is still limited. This is due, in part, to the overall absence of reflexive self-regulation among individuals in the society, which might lead to a state of ‘disorganized irresponsibility’.     

Competence Trust,Reflexivity and Risk Management in Hong Kong

Abstract

Trust is an essential element of governance. Lack of trust in government engenders doubts regarding its competence, weakens its legitimacy, and creates difficulties in the process of governing. As suggested, declining trust was related to reflexivity. This article, based on a Hong Kong study, confirms that a lack of competence trust in the government's ability to manage work-related risks correlated with reflexivity. Self-identified social status also influences the degree of reflexivity and competence trust. The conventional approach to cultivating trust through managed social participation has been widely practiced, but the results have not led to an increase in competence trust in Hong Kong, even when the policy outcomes are positive. While recognizing that reflexivity and its impacts on trust are inevitable, this article argues that efforts should be made to develop critical trust through meaningful participation in the deliberative process.     

警察执行力：内涵、构成要素及提升路径

警察执行力是警察通过准确理解党和政府的政策、法律,精心设计方案,有效使用财物,信息,制度等资源,完成既定目标的综合效力.一般来讲,警察执行力是由理解认同力、计划确定力、组织协调力、实施控制力和监察调整力组成的,提升警察执行力需要从提高警察的素质、引导群众对警察执行的认同、优化执行资源和改善执行环境等方面来进行.     

A Study of the Predictors of Persistence in Stalking Situations

Stalkers engaging in persistent campaigns of harassment have the potential to cause immense harm to their victims and themselves. Being able to estimate which stalkers are likely to persist longest is important to clinicians dealing with both perpetrators and victims. This study of 200 stalkers investigated characteristics of the stalkers and their behaviour that were associated with increased persistence. Logistic regression models were developed to predict low, moderate, and highly persistent stalking. The results supported previous research indicating that the type of prior relationship between stalker and victim is strongly associated with persistence, with prior acquaintances the most persistent, and strangers least. Being aged over 30, sending the victim unsolicited materials, and having an intimacy seeking or resentful motivation was also associated with greater persistence, as was the presence of psychosis.