Competence Trust,Reflexivity and Risk Management in Hong Kong

Abstract

Trust is an essential element of governance. Lack of trust in government engenders doubts regarding its competence, weakens its legitimacy, and creates difficulties in the process of governing. As suggested, declining trust was related to reflexivity. This article, based on a Hong Kong study, confirms that a lack of competence trust in the government's ability to manage work-related risks correlated with reflexivity. Self-identified social status also influences the degree of reflexivity and competence trust. The conventional approach to cultivating trust through managed social participation has been widely practiced, but the results have not led to an increase in competence trust in Hong Kong, even when the policy outcomes are positive. While recognizing that reflexivity and its impacts on trust are inevitable, this article argues that efforts should be made to develop critical trust through meaningful participation in the deliberative process.     

警察执行力：内涵、构成要素及提升路径

警察执行力是警察通过准确理解党和政府的政策、法律,精心设计方案,有效使用财物,信息,制度等资源,完成既定目标的综合效力.一般来讲,警察执行力是由理解认同力、计划确定力、组织协调力、实施控制力和监察调整力组成的,提升警察执行力需要从提高警察的素质、引导群众对警察执行的认同、优化执行资源和改善执行环境等方面来进行.     

A Study of the Predictors of Persistence in Stalking Situations

Stalkers engaging in persistent campaigns of harassment have the potential to cause immense harm to their victims and themselves. Being able to estimate which stalkers are likely to persist longest is important to clinicians dealing with both perpetrators and victims. This study of 200 stalkers investigated characteristics of the stalkers and their behaviour that were associated with increased persistence. Logistic regression models were developed to predict low, moderate, and highly persistent stalking. The results supported previous research indicating that the type of prior relationship between stalker and victim is strongly associated with persistence, with prior acquaintances the most persistent, and strangers least. Being aged over 30, sending the victim unsolicited materials, and having an intimacy seeking or resentful motivation was also associated with greater persistence, as was the presence of psychosis.

Psychopathy and Stalking

We examined the association between psychopathy, assessed using the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised: Screening Version (Hart et al., Manual for the psychopathy checklist screening version (PCL:SV), 1995), and stalking in 61 men convicted of stalking-related offenses. Psychopathic symptoms were rare, but their presence—especially that of affective deficit symptoms—was associated with victimization of casual acquaintances and with several risk factors from the Guidelines for Stalking Assessment and Management (SAM) (Kropp et al., Guidelines for stalking assessment and management, 2008a), including stalking in violation of supervision orders, degree of preoccupation with victims, and targeting of victims with limited access to external resources. The findings suggest that in spite of their rarity, psychopathic traits may be important in the assessment and management of stalking risk.

物流金融中商业银行的风险及防范

物流金融业务作为一种较新的金融及物流创新服务产品,不仅解决了部分中小企业融资难问题,而且给商业银行带来了新的赢利增长点,为银行业的金融创新提供了条件。但是这种新兴的业务也会使商业银行面临质押物的风险、信托责任缺失风险、风险指标失灵风险、信用环境软约束风险和物流企业的管理体制风险。分析这些风险,并提出相应的规避和防范措施。     

Analyzing the Performance of Risk Assessment Instruments: A Response to Vrieze and Grove (2007)

In a recent article, Vrieze and Grove (Law Hum Behav, doi: 10.1007/s10979-007-9092-x , 2007) argue that, because of low recidivism base rates and limited predictive accuracy, an actuarial risk assessment instrument (ARAI) may produce decisions about sex offenders that are worse than simply predicting that no one will commit another sex offense. This article examines: (1) the construction and potential overfitting of ARAIs; (2) the meaning, value, and limitations of ROC areas; and (3) the relationship between the operating point that maximizes an ARAI's correct classifications and the legal criterion-"likely to reoffend"-used for sex offender designations. Contrary to what Vrieze and Grove suggest, ARAIs of modest accuracy yield probabilistic information that is more relevant to legal decision-making than just "betting the base rate."     

Criminal Recidivism Among Juvenile Offenders: Testing the Incremental and Predictive Validity of Three Measures of Psychopathic Features

We studied the predictive, comparative, and incremental validity of three measures of psychopathic features (Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version [PCL:YV]; Antisocial Process Screening Device [APSD]; Childhood Psychopathy Scale [CPS]) vis-à-vis criminal recidivism among 83 delinquent youth within a truly prospective design. Bivariate and multivariate analyses (Cox proportional hazard analyses) showed that of the three measures, the CPS was most consistently related to most types of recidivism in comparison to the other measures. However, incremental validity analyses demonstrated that all of the predictive effects for the measures of psychopathic features disappeared after conceptually relevant covariates (i.e., substance use, conduct disorder, young age, past property crime) were included in multivariate predictive models. Implications for the limits of these measures in applied juvenile justice assessment are discussed.     

An Indepth Actuarial Assessment for Wife Assault Recidivism: The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide</Emphasis>

An actuarial tool, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), predicts recidivism using only variables readily obtained by frontline police officers. Correctional settings permit more comprehensive assessments. In a subset of ODARA construction and cross-validation cases, 303 men with a police record for wife assault and a correctional system file, the VRAG, SARA, Danger Assessment, and DVSI also predicted recidivism, but the Hare Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R) best improved prediction of recidivism, occurrence, frequency, severity, injury, and charges. In 346 new cases, ODARA and PCL-R independently predicted recidivism. An algorithm was derived for a combined instrument, the Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (DVRAG), and an experience table is presented (N=649). Results indicated the importance of antisociality in wife assault.     

Charities and Political Campaigning: The Impact of Risk-Based Regulation

This article examines the effects of the Charity Commission’s implementation of risk-based regulation on the political campaigning activities of charities. In doing so, it draws on the findings of a recent empirical study which explored charity representatives’ awareness of relevant law and regulation and their perceptions of the obstacles they faced in their campaigning work. The article begins with a brief exploration of the emergence of risk-based approaches to regulation, followed by consideration of the legal and regulatory requirements for risk management by charities. Moving to its main focus of political campaigning, the article notes the unique legal issues faced by charities in campaigning work. It provides a comparative evaluation of the 2004 and 2008 versions of Charity Commission guidance CC9 on campaigning and political activity by charities (CC9) in terms of their approach to legal compliance, their formulation of the specific risks of campaigning and their approach to the process of risk management itself. In addition, the article considers the relevance to campaigning activity of the Commission’s current plans for an ‘enhanced approach’ to risk in its compliance work. The article concludes by considering the potential impacts on charitable campaigning of both the Commission’s overall approach to campaigning and its perceived risks, and of further entrenchment of risk principles in charity regulation.

第二语言习得成功的关键因素--学习动机的激发与培养

学习动机是影响第二语言习得的诸多因素中最具能动性的,学习动机的激发与培养是直接导致第二语言习得成败的关键所在.学习动机是仅次于语言学习技能的最强有力的学习效果预测因素.与学习动机相关的主要因素有学习成就、动机的强度、社会文化因素以及学习者探索外部世界、渴望学习知识、提高自我能力、通过各种考试的几种不同需要.教师可以从树立学习理想,端正学习态度,明确学习目标,确定学习内容;强化激励机制,营造学习氛围;丰富教学方法,精选"教材"教具;平等善待学生,鼓励参与活动;重视文化输入,培养学习兴趣等六个方面进行激发和培养学生第二语言的学习动机.