Construct validity and internal reliability of the Finnish risk and needs assessment form

Validation of risk and needs assessment instruments used to predict, and reduce, recidivism and misconduct is of ethical, practical and scientific importance. We argue for a focus on variable (i.e. changeable over time) risk factors, and that validation begins with establishing construct validity. The Finnish Risk and Needs Assessment Form, in Finnish Riski- ja tarvearvio (RITA), is a semi-structured interview form adapted from the Offender Assessment System used in England and Wales and consists primarily of variable risk factors. In this study, we examined the construct validity and internal reliability of RITA. The results suggest that the original RITA sections do not provide an adequate statistical model for describing the relationship between scored questions, and we, therefore, offer an improved model. In our proposed model, several scores are influenced by more than one dimension of risk and the dimensions correlate with each other considerably. We suggest that the dimensions that can be measured with RITA are Problems managing economy, Alcohol problems, Resistance to change, Drug abuse and associated behaviour, Aggressiveness and Employment problems. All factors except Drug abuse and associated behaviour had very good internal reliability. We propose this new model to be used in future research with, and in development of, RITA.     

美国次贷危机对我国的启示

美国次级债券引发的风波已经波及全球,世界上主要的金融领域公司业绩产生了巨大损失,美国房地产市场也已开始走向衰落。深入探究此次危机,可以使我们更清楚地了解美国房地产泡沫从产生到破灭的全过程,使我们能够正确看待住房贷款市场的风险和金融创新的两面性,这些都对正处在“风口浪尖”的我国经济有着深刻的警示意义。     

信任与稳定--销售渠道的制胜根基

在销售渠道的网络结构中,制造商和代理商之间的信任尤为重要。信任是稳定销售渠道的前提。公司加强与代理商之间的信任关系,重在信守承诺,向代理商表示信任,共同承担经营风险,实行人员交流,加强信息协调。还应当加强销售渠道的冲突管理,即加强销售渠道设计,优化销售渠道管理,加强渠道成员间的信息沟通,积极开展对中间商的服务。     

“香烟”弥漫的青春:作为一种“过渡期仪式”的青少年香烟消费

青少年吸烟不仅是一种健康风险行为,也是一个备受争议的学术话题。本文将青少年男性的吸烟行为视为一种"过渡期仪式",并从仪式道具、仪式剧本、仪式表演角色和仪式观众四个维度分析了青少年男性是如何借助仪式实践而顺利实现青春期的角色转变和身份认同。文章最后对过渡期仪式实践的起始与终结、男性气质与健康风险行为的内在关联进行了深入的思考。     

美国的商业银行管制给我们的启示

商业银行的改革方向该往何处去,对商业银行如何监管,这是摆在金融改革面前最严峻的问题,未来的商业银行可能成为城市的银行、利益集团的银行、富人的银行。如果真的这样会在中国金融业推出许多新东西,这更需要国家进行更严格的适度的监管,美国的银行监管体制一直在不断地改革和调整,他们的经验对我们仍然是很好的启示。     

Optimizing risk mitigation in management of sexual offenders: a structural model

Sexual violence is an insidious and pervasive problem that insinuates itself into all aspects of contemporary society. It can neither be mitigated nor adequately controlled through current socio-legal practices. A more promising approach must embrace four integrated elements: (1) public policy, (2) primary prevention, (3) statutory management, and (3) secondary intervention. In the present paper we tackle the 3rd and 4th elements by proposing an integrated model for reducing and managing sexual violence among known sex offenders. Relying on the highly effective Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model as the core of our Sex Offender Risk Mitigation and Management Model (SORM³), we draw together evidence based practices from clinical interventions and risk assessment strategies. Developed by Andrews & Bonta (2006), RNR has a strong empirical track record of efficacy when applied to diverse samples of offenders, including sex offenders (Hanson, Bourgon, Helmus, & Hodgson, 2009). We offer a detailed structural model that seeks to provide a more seamless integration of risk assessment with management and discretionary decisions, including a primary focus on RNR-based post-release aftercare. We end with the mantra that sex offender treatment alone will never effectively mitigate sexual violence in society, since the problem is not confined to the handful of offenders who spend time in prison and are offered some limited exposure to treatment. Any truly effective model must go well beyond the management of those known to be violent and embrace a comprehensive and integrated approach that begins by recognizing the seeds of sexual violence sown by society. Such a public health paradigm places victims - not offenders - at the center, forcing society to come to address the full gamut of hazards that fuel sexual violence.     

Risk Assessment for Juvenile Justice: A Meta-Analysis

Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.     

Unilateral CDM—can developing countries finance generation of greenhouse gas emission credits on their own?

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was originally seen as an instrument with a bi- or multilateral character where an entity or fund from an industrialised country invests in a project in a developing country. The sluggish implementation of incentives for industrialised country companies to embark on CDM projects and low carbon prices led to a preference for just buying Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) instead of investing in projects. Thus a third option has gained prominence—the unilateral option where the project development is planned and financed within the developing country. We propose that a project should be called “pure unilateral” if it involves no foreign direct investment (FDI), only has the approval of the Designated National Authority (DNA) of the host country and sells its CERs after certification directly to an industrialised country. Unilateral projects can become attractive if the host country risk premium for foreign investors is high despite a high human, institutional and infrastructural capacity and domestic capital availability. Moreover, transaction costs can be reduced compared to foreign investments that have to overcome bureaucratic hurdles. On the other hand, technology transfer is likely to be lower, capacity building has to be undertaken by the host country and all risks have to be carried by host country entities. The potential to carry out unilateral CDM projects strongly varies among host countries. Whereas several countries from Asia and Latin America can design and implement projects autonomously, most of the Sub-Saharan countries rely on foreign support. International donors of capacity building grants should increasingly address those countries that are not presently focused on by foreign investors and support them in the design of local projects.

Open source software (OSS) governance in the organisation

Going into the century's second decade, Open Source Software (OSS) is ubiquitous. But there remains a disconnect between OSS use and its effective management. In order to ensure that OSS is used in a way which complies with relevant licence requirements and reduces risk (for example, of adverse action from the OSS community and IP leakage through unintended application of the ‘copyleft’ terms of the GPL2); organisations should consider putting in place an effective OSS governance mechanism. OSS governance should take account of the people context, seeking to get buy-in from all stakeholder groups inside and outside the organisation. The high-level OSS strategy should then be agreed between the stakeholders, consistently with other statements of operational strategy. The next level down is the OSS policy statement, which should be clear, brief, event-driven, able to settle 80% of OSS decisions arising day to day and set out what information is to be collected and tracked. Finally, appropriate processes should be put in place to take the strain of OSS governance. Organisations should consider appointing an Open Source Compliance Officer and acquiring a software based indicator tool enabling a number of key governance processes (code review, setting agreed ‘do's and dont's’) to be automated.     

风险社会与当前中国民众的风险认知研究

风险感知的两种理论范式——个体主义的和背景主义的范式——分别强调个体认知结构因素和社会环境背景因素对人们风险感知的决定作用。本研究根据风险感知的"知识理论"、风险的社会扩大理论及社会制度结构对风险感知的束缚作用,分别建立相关的研究假设,试图寻找这些理论在中国经验中的证据。文章的数据来自中国综合社会调查(CGSS2006)的调查数据,研究发现,总体而言,当前中国民众对中国社会发展可能面临的问题有强烈的风险认知,尤其对当前中国社会发展可能面临的能源问题和环境问题有最强烈的风险认知。另外,民众的风险认知主要受个人的认知能力、媒介接触、城乡分割和社会阶层地位的影响。具体说来,受教育程度越高的人、媒介接触越频繁的人、阶层地位越高的人风险认知越强;城市居民比农村居民有更强的风险认知。