中国后扶贫时代中的返贫风险控制策略——基于风险源分析与人力资源开发视角

党的十九届五中全会明确将“巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果”作为“民生福祉达到新水平”的重要任务。巩固扶贫成果的关键在于防止返贫,而防止返贫的关键在于控制返贫风险。基于新中国农村扶贫的实践与政策分析,当前中国存在救济型扶贫、保障型扶贫、易地搬迁型扶贫、开发型扶贫和参与型扶贫五种扶贫模式,可以分析比较出不同扶贫模式下返贫的直接风险源和根本风险源。借助人力资源开发理论与方法,可以从自我开发、培训开发、岗位开发、干部开发、组织开发等方面实现风险控制,为地方政府与领导干部防止返贫风险与实现乡村振兴提供了有效参考。     

风险社会与侵权损害救济途径多元化

现代风险社会给人们带来更多的不确定性和不安全感,传统侵权法律制度在面对不断涌现的新型侵权行为以及灾难性、大规模的人身损害事故时存在局限性。对此,我国《侵权责任法》在功能定位、保障范围、加害事由、归责原则等方面的制度设计,对风险社会的现实状况和生活形态作出了回应,尤其强化了侵权法的救济功能。侵权法的这种制度变化改变了我国责任风险的原有形态;同时,在侵权法律体系内也不可能完全解决对受害人的赔偿和救济问题,由此给责任保险和社会保障制度提供了更大的发展空间。在以侵权法、责任保险和社会保障为主体的多元救济体系中,各项制度之间应注意协调,避免赔偿不足或赔偿过度。     

Fairness of Allocations among Groups of Unknown Others

The aim of three experiments was to examine the idea that when judging the fairness of allocations people are influenced both by differences in relative payoffs and the number of comparisons among payoffs. The hypothesis tested was that judged fairness would be inversely related to the average difference between payoffs; average difference was defined as the sum of absolute differences between outcomes to groups divided by the number of pairwise comparisons between the groups. In Experiment 1, 24 undergraduates rated fairness and goodness (desirability) of allocations to one privileged and one underprivileged group consisting of fellow students. The participants were not themselves members of the groups and their ratings did not depend on evaluations by the groups members. Results showed, as expected, that differences in payoff determined judgments of fairness but also that larger sums were to some extent rated as more fair than smaller sums. However, as the sum increased, the effect of difference was shown to decrease. Fairness ratings partially mediated ratings of goodness. In Experiment 2, 72 undergraduates rated fairness and goodness of combinations of payoffs to two or four groups consisting of fellow students. Results confirmed that rated fairness was inversely related to the average difference between payoffs. The total sum of the groups payoffs was again found to somewhat increase rated fairness, whereas the number of members in the groups did not have any clear effect. In Experiment 3, 24 undergraduates rated the goodness of allocations to two, three, and four groups. The results showed similar effects as in the preceding experiments.     

商业银行应对利率市场化探析

由于受利率市场化影响,我国商业银行信贷经营面临资产重新定价的问题,要加强资金头寸管理和利率缺口管理,进一步规范金融同业竞争秩序。商业银行应对利率市场化的对策主要是建立高效的现代利率管理机制,建立科学合理的本外币存贷款定价机制,加大中间业务和金融产品创新力度,建立完善的利率风险内控机制,积极推行资产证券化业务。     

政府财务境况和财政风险：一个分析框架

评估财政风险应从政府拥有的公共资源及政府应承担的公共支出责任和义务2方面入手,从资产负债存量和财政收支流量两个角度来动态地考察。政府财务报告的目标之一是提供财务境况信息,以评估财政风险。利用政府综合年度财务报告所提供的信息来分析和评价财政风险,可提高评估的准确性,并使之制度化和规范化。从政府会计的角度出发,讨论了财务境况的定义和计量,提出了从环境因素、组织因素和财务因素3方面来综合评估财政风险的一个分析框架,并设计了一套财务指标体系用以评估和预警财政风险。     

An Unbearable Price: War Casualties and Warring Democracies

Israeli society has changed its attitude to the sacrifice of life in war, a change that is reflected in the bereavement discourse. Attitudes have shifted from the unquestioned justification of military losses prior to the First Lebanon War (1982) to the emergence of an antiwar bereavement discourse after the war and during the South Lebanon war of attrition that followed it. More recently, following the Al-Aqsa Intifada and the Second Lebanon War (2006), a discourse that accepts losses has emerged. While the retreat from the hegemonic discourse prior to the First Lebanon War is explained by the changing attitudes to military sacrifice among the social elites, the latter shift took place in parallel with the alteration of the social composition of the Israeli Defence Force. It is argued that the social composition of the military affects the level of sensitivity to losses. While secular upper-middle class groups tend to show a high level of sensitivity to war losses, which they then translate into a subversive bereavement discourse, religious and peripheral groups with a hawkish agenda are more tolerant of military losses, or, alternatively, may seek to avoid excessive casualties by improving the military’s performance or the quality of the political directives.

大型活动安保风险评估概论

风险评估是大型活动安全保卫的核心和关键。它是运用各类数学原理、模型、方法和风险数据库，通过全方位、多渠道的广泛收集可能导致各类大型活动突发事件发生的危险有害因素，预先识别潜在的各类威胁、弱点，评估险种类等级、可能造成的影响，对危机灾害后果进行准备和预警，制定应对的安全策略建议和安全解决方案，为规避与调整风险、管理决策提供科学依据的过程。大型活动风险评估的方法主要分为定性和定量两种。大型活动风险评估的过程包括风险识别、风险评价和风险控制三个组成部分。     

略论配偶的房屋共有权风险及防范

随着我国物权制度的确立和完善,针对目前房屋仍然居于夫妻共同财产和家庭共同财产的核心地位的现状,以及受传统观念影响大多婚中房屋所有权仅登记于配偶一方名下的实际情况,对于配偶的财产权,尤其是关系重大的房屋共有权的实现与保障研究,更加具有非同寻常的意义.     

Assertions of “Future Dangerousness” at Federal Capital Sentencing: Rates and Correlates of Subsequent Prison Misconduct and Violence

The federal prison disciplinary records of federal capital inmates (n=145) who were sentenced to life without possibility of release (LWOP) by plea bargain, pre-sentencing withdrawal of the death penalty, or jury determination were retrospectively reviewed (M=6.17 years post-admission). Disaggregated prevalence rates were inversely related to infraction severity: serious infraction =0.324, assaultive infraction =0.207, serious assault =0.09, assault with moderate injury =0.007, assault with major injuries or death =0.00. Frequency rates of misconduct were equivalent to other high-security federal inmates (n=18,561), regardless of infraction severity. Government assertions of "future dangerousness" as a nonstatutory aggravating factor were not predictive of prison misconduct. These findings inform federal capital risk assessments and have public policy implications for procedural reliability in death penalty prosecutions.     

The civil liability of European nuclear operators: which coverage for the new 2004 Protocols? Evidence from France

In Western Europe, the nuclear liability is governed by two international conventions, drafted by the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD: the Paris (1960) and Brussels (1963) Conventions. These conventions traditionally limited the liability of the nuclear power plant operators to relatively low amounts. In France, the liability of the (state owned) operator of €91 million is covered by insurance (for €31 million) and reserves (for €60 million). A recent modification to the conventions occurred in 2004 and increased the liability limit to €700 million. In this paper we aim to evaluate the costs for covering the increased liability for the nuclear risk after the introduction of the 2004 amendments. In order to do so, we calculate the actuarial insurance premium for the nuclear risk and find that the current premium charge is very large. The paper tries to explain the high price of nuclear liability insurance. Also the costs of the own reserves for the coverage of potential nuclear accidents are examined. We then aim to evaluate the different options (mostly insurance and reserves) and indicate the optimal combination of both instruments to cover the future operators’ liability limit, introduced by the latest 2004 amending Protocols.