风险最糟糕情景认知模式及行政法制之改革

以行为决策学关于风险认知的两种模式及其相互关系的理论,阐述了政府官员（公众）对风险最糟糕情景的判断过程,从个体情感角度揭示其过度反应或反应不足的原因;运用社会心理学中的易（非易）得性启示及概率忽视的原理,进一步分析了政府官员（公众）过度反应或反应不足的机理。从行政法角度而言,政府对风险的最糟糕情景反应不足或过度反应都是不具有合法性的行政行为。为确保政府科学管理风险最糟糕情景,行政法需要进行制度变革。这些改革措施包括：组建风险最糟糕情景模拟实验室,定期公布模拟结果;建立并更新风险最糟糕情景信息超级数据库,以及确定相应的预警标准;成立超级风险规制机构以及设计更为精致和灵敏的分析性工具。     

赖昌星“难民”案的法律分析

赖昌星携家人潜逃加拿大后,向加拿大移民部提出了"难民"申请,由于加拿大难民制度完善而复杂,该案也一波三折。本文就赖昌星"难民"案所涉及的加拿大难民法律制度、该案争讼的焦点和该案目前的进展与前景做了简要介绍和分析。     

Fairness of Allocations among Groups of Unknown Others

The aim of three experiments was to examine the idea that when judging the fairness of allocations people are influenced both by differences in relative payoffs and the number of comparisons among payoffs. The hypothesis tested was that judged fairness would be inversely related to the average difference between payoffs; average difference was defined as the sum of absolute differences between outcomes to groups divided by the number of pairwise comparisons between the groups. In Experiment 1, 24 undergraduates rated fairness and goodness (desirability) of allocations to one privileged and one underprivileged group consisting of fellow students. The participants were not themselves members of the groups and their ratings did not depend on evaluations by the groups members. Results showed, as expected, that differences in payoff determined judgments of fairness but also that larger sums were to some extent rated as more fair than smaller sums. However, as the sum increased, the effect of difference was shown to decrease. Fairness ratings partially mediated ratings of goodness. In Experiment 2, 72 undergraduates rated fairness and goodness of combinations of payoffs to two or four groups consisting of fellow students. Results confirmed that rated fairness was inversely related to the average difference between payoffs. The total sum of the groups payoffs was again found to somewhat increase rated fairness, whereas the number of members in the groups did not have any clear effect. In Experiment 3, 24 undergraduates rated the goodness of allocations to two, three, and four groups. The results showed similar effects as in the preceding experiments.     

政府财务境况和财政风险：一个分析框架

评估财政风险应从政府拥有的公共资源及政府应承担的公共支出责任和义务2方面入手,从资产负债存量和财政收支流量两个角度来动态地考察。政府财务报告的目标之一是提供财务境况信息,以评估财政风险。利用政府综合年度财务报告所提供的信息来分析和评价财政风险,可提高评估的准确性,并使之制度化和规范化。从政府会计的角度出发,讨论了财务境况的定义和计量,提出了从环境因素、组织因素和财务因素3方面来综合评估财政风险的一个分析框架,并设计了一套财务指标体系用以评估和预警财政风险。     

汽车智能化的道路:智能汽车、自动驾驶汽车安全监管研究

近年来,功能汽车正呈现出向智能汽车逐渐进化的革命性趋势,其原因在于智能汽车对非结构化环境的高适应性。从安全监管角度来看,功能汽车的车用电子控制系统具有高度可预见性,因此功能汽车之ECU嵌入式控制单元对于环境的理解程度十分接近地面实况。然而,德国TüV安全认证机构的研究报告指出这一切将可能不再适用在智能汽车上面,特别是当驾驶辅助系统开始展现一些(半)自动行为以后。除智能汽车之外,无人介入的自动驾驶汽车亦将引发更多关于安全监管和道德伦理等问题,因此有必要以自动化伴随的开放组织风险为中心,来贯穿这股科技变革的起点(智能汽车)和终点(自动驾驶汽车),并分析其潜在安全隐患以及治理之道。     

Incarceration and Recidivism among Sexual Offenders

The relationship between incarceration and recidivism was investigated in a sample of 627 adult male sexual offenders. Incarceration for the index offense was unrelated to sexual or violent recidivism. This was the case whether incarceration was examined as a dichotomous variable (incarceration vs. community sentence) or as a continuous variable (length of incarceration). Risk for sexual recidivism was assessed with a modified version of the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism. There was no evidence that the relationship between incarceration and recidivism was confounded or moderated by risk or that length of incarceration and recidivism were non-linearly associated. Sentencing sexual offenders to terms of incarceration appears to have little, if any, impact on sexual and violent recidivism following release.     

金融危机以来的欧盟银行法变革:立法修正与经验借鉴

金融危机再一次暴露了欧盟银行业法制的软肋。后危机时代,欧盟分别对金融监管体系、存款保险计划和资本需求三个方面立法进行了全面修正。修正以恢复金融系统稳定作为首要目标,以巴塞尔新资本协议为蓝本,将目标监管这一国际先进监管理念和宏观审慎监管措施纳入欧盟法,增强了欧盟银行业抵御系统性风险的能力,推进了欧盟银行监管一体化进程。危机后欧盟银行法的路径选择启示着中国加强系统性风险管理和宏观审慎立法的紧迫性。存款保险制度应尽快建立,巴塞尔协议标准也需认真采纳,以增强中国金融监管立法的前瞻性。     

大型活动安保风险评估概论

风险评估是大型活动安全保卫的核心和关键。它是运用各类数学原理、模型、方法和风险数据库，通过全方位、多渠道的广泛收集可能导致各类大型活动突发事件发生的危险有害因素，预先识别潜在的各类威胁、弱点，评估险种类等级、可能造成的影响，对危机灾害后果进行准备和预警，制定应对的安全策略建议和安全解决方案，为规避与调整风险、管理决策提供科学依据的过程。大型活动风险评估的方法主要分为定性和定量两种。大型活动风险评估的过程包括风险识别、风险评价和风险控制三个组成部分。     

Patterns of Risk and Protective Factors in the Intergenerational Cycle of Maltreatment

This study investigates the continuation and discontinuation of the intergenerational transmission of child maltreatment within the first 13 months of the child’s life. Differences in risk factors and parenting styles between families who initiate (Initiators), maintain (Maintainers) or break (Cycle Breakers) the intergenerational cycle of child maltreatment are explored in comparison to control families (Controls). One hundred and three Health Visitors were trained to assess risk factors and parenting styles of 4,351 families, at both 4–6 weeks and 3–5 months after birth. Maintainers, Initiators and Cycle Breakers had a significantly higher prevalence for the majority of risk factors and poor parenting styles than Controls. Protective factors of financial solvency and social support distinguished Cycle Breakers from Maintainers and Initiators. Therefore, it is the presence of protective factors that distinguish Cycle Breakers from families who were referred to Child Protection professionals in the first year after birth. A conceptual, hierarchical model that considers history of abuse, risk and protective factors, in turn, is proposed to assess families for the potential of child maltreatment.     

如何控制抽样审计中的审计风险

抽样审计是普遍使用的审计方法,但抽样审计不可避免地伴随着抽样风险和非抽样风险。为了合理地控制和降低审计风险,审计人员应该将风险的控制看作一个系统工程,从抽样风险和非抽样风险的成因上分别采取措施,按照审计流程纵向地控制审计风险,实现审计目标。