A New Robust Epigenetic Model for Forensic Age Prediction

Forensic DNA phenotyping refers to an emerging field of forensic sciences aimed at the prediction of externally visible characteristics of unknown sample donors directly from biological materials. The aging process significantly affects most of the above characteristics making the development of a reliable method of age prediction very important. Today, the so-called “epigenetic clocks” represent the most accurate models for age prediction. Since they are technically not achievable in a typical forensic laboratory, forensic DNA technology has triggered efforts toward the simplification of these models. The present study aimed to build an epigenetic clock using a set of methylation markers of five different genes in a sample of the Italian population of different ages covering the whole span of adult life. In a sample of 330 subjects, 42 selected markers were analyzed with a machine learning approach for building a prediction model for age prediction. A ridge linear regression model including eight of the proposed markers was identified as the best performing model across a plethora of candidates. This model was tested on an independent sample of 83 subjects providing a median error of 4.5 years. In the present study, an epigenetic model for age prediction was validated in a sample of the Italian population. However, its applicability to advanced ages still represents the main limitation in forensic caseworks.     

德莱赛与菲茨杰拉德作品中的女主人翁形象对比

同为美国20世纪初最具代表性的文学巨匠,德莱塞和菲茨杰拉德处于同一时代背景之下,在创作的年代上有交集也有先后之序。然而由于各自不同的生活经历,个性心理以及所受不同哲学思想的影响,他们的写作技巧和文体风格迥异。因此,其笔下的女主人翁形象也大相径庭。德莱塞描摹的几乎全为被享乐欲望腐蚀的下层阶级女子,而菲茨杰拉德塑造的都是拜金虚荣的都市女郎。本文通过分析两位作家关注的不同社会阶层女性的人格丧失和道德沦丧的深层原由,展示了那个时代美国社会的浮华与喧嚣以及深藏其后的衰败。     

Reliability of Third Molar Development for Age Estimation in a Texas Hispanic Population: A Comparison Study*

Abstract: Evaluating third molars from 950 Hispanic individuals aged 12–22 years using Demirjian’s schematic for crown and root formation found that Hispanic third molar development was 8–18 months faster than American Caucasians as reported by Mincer, Harris and Berryman in 1993. This represents a statistically significant increase. Earlier development was more apparent in the later stages F through H. Hispanic males reach developmental stages faster than Hispanic females and maxillary third molars reach developmental stages faster than mandibular third molars in both sexes. The earliest age observed for stages B–H (e.g., Stage H first observed at age 13.92 years in females) and the oldest age observed for Stages B–G were developed to facilitate age prediction of unknown individuals. Prediction tables for minimum and maximum age for an observed stage (e.g., if a female maxillary third molar is stage F it means she is older than 13 years) for each sex‐jaw group were calculated.     

青少年手腕骨骨龄与生活年龄的差异观察

目的比较以不同骨龄标准所评价的青少年手腕骨骨龄与生活年龄的差异,观察生长发育长期变化对青少年年龄推测的影响。方法从中国5座大中城市抽取11464名（男5873,女5591）3～18岁汉族正常青少年儿童,并另随机抽取950名（男516,女434）12～18岁骨发育正常的汉族青少年作为验证样本。按CHN法和RC法骨龄标准评价手腕部X线片骨龄,并对不同方法评价的骨龄及生活年龄进行统计学分析。结果各年龄组CHN法骨龄中位数大于RC骨龄,其差异具有显著性意义（P〈0．05）。验证样本中,在男12—16．5岁、女12～14．5岁之间,CHN骨龄减生活年龄之差值分别为0．35—1．00岁和0．57～1．16岁（P〈0．01）;RC骨龄减生活年龄的差值分别为-0．26—0．23岁和-0．27～0．06岁（P〉0．05）。在男17～18岁、女15～17岁之间,CHN骨龄减生活年龄的差值分别为-0．52～-1．05岁和-0．16～-1．13岁（P〈0．05）,RC骨龄减生活年龄的差值分别为-0．35～-0．48岁和-0．22～-0．79岁（P〈0．05）。结论CHN法骨龄高于生活年龄,在大部分年龄组RC骨龄与生活年龄基本一致。     

对年龄序列非正式社会控制理论的一个质疑

年龄序列非正式社会控制理论是美国新近兴起的一种犯罪学理论。在成年犯罪原因上,认为婚姻和工作强化的社会纽带可以成为成年人违法犯罪的主要抑制因素。然而,通过对中国农民工流动人口犯罪和日常行为中的“家庭因素”进行考察分析,那么该理论“良好婚姻所形成家庭的社会纽带能够抑制成年犯罪”的结论就会受到质疑。     

审查起诉中未成年人年龄证据的审查判断

总体上,证明犯罪嫌疑人达到相应刑事责任年龄的证据应遵循排除合理怀疑的证明标准,而相反证据只需达到足以使前者产生合理怀疑的程度。在证据不充分、无法查清事实时可采用推定的方法。在此基础上,实践中重要的是将相应的证明标准和证明方法应用于具体证据的审查中,具体问题具体分析。     

论井冈山斗争时期党的建设的历史经验及时代价值

井冈山斗争时期的党的建设是对马克思主义建党学说的重大发展。井冈山斗争时期共产党人培育的井冈山精神是我们党宝贵的精神财富。新时期,继承光荣传统,发扬优良作风,弘扬井冈山精神,加强党的建设,必须认真总结和运用井冈山斗争时期加强党的建设的经验,在坚持和改善党的领导的实践中,切实抓好思想建党;不断加强基层组织建设和作风建设;坚持以健全民主集中制为重点,切实加强党的制度建设;坚持从严治党的方针,切实加强党的反腐倡廉建设。     

Estimating age in Maori, Pacific Island, and European children from New Zealand

The islands of New Zealand are populated by persons of European, Maori, and Pacific Island extraction. The purpose of this research is to quantify the levels of dental maturation of each of these three populations, in order to obtain data that will be useful in forensic identification and age estimation. The sample consisted of 1383 orthopantomographs (660 males, 723 females) of 477 Maori, 762 European, and 144 Pacific Island children between the ages of 3 and 14 years. Each radiograph was digitized and the stages of mineralization of the seven left mandibular permanent teeth were assessed using the eight stages described by Demirjian. Values for 1, 3, 5, 50, 95, 97, and 99% confidence intervals are listed for each maturity score. Intra-observer reliability was evaluated using Bland-Altman's method on data from re-scoring one out of every 20 radiographs and standard dental maturation curves were constructed for the three populations by means of a quantile regression method. Despite the fact that quantile regression analysis showed that across the age group investigated there were differences between boys and girls, knowledge of the sex does not increase the accuracy of the age estimate, simply because the magnitude of the error of age estimation is greater than the difference between the sexes. Our analysis also shows that population divergence is most marked after the age of 9 years, with a peak difference seen at age 10.     

Morphometric analysis of third molar root development by an experimental method using digital orthopantomographs

Abstract:  The aim of the study was to conduct a morphometric analysis of the root development of the third molar, with the purpose of overcoming the limits of an exclusively morphological analysis. The study was divided in two phases. The first one was the verification of the existence of a constant crown-root (C/R) ratio on a sample of 100 third molars, characterized by a complete root development. The value obtained was used in the second phase to predict the final root's length, knowing the crown height. So we have calculated, on a sample of 322 third molars with developing roots, the final ratios between incomplete roots and complete roots. Statistical analysis was then made with 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals. The results showed a significant difference according to the age of the subject and the limit values, lower and upper, for subjects aged 16 and 17 years versus those aged 18 and 19. For each analysis, the width of the class of tolerance and other statistical indicators were calculated. The results we obtained support the advantage of a morphometric study as opposed to an exclusively morphological study, but all the techniques used to determine the age of a living subject can provide only indications of the biological age, but no certainties as regards chronological age.