试论和平发展背景下的两岸共同治理

2008年5月20日以来,台湾问题出现历史性转折,两岸关系迎来了和平发展的机遇期。但是,两岸政治上的歧见并没有因此得到根本上的解决,两岸经济、社会、文化差异仍然很大。如何把握难得的历史机遇期,在求同存异的基础上共同面对和平发展进程中出现的困难和问题,我们必须未雨绸缪。为此,两岸民间社会需要重建人民之间共同的知识基础,两岸行政部门需要谋划与两岸民间往来相关的共同规则,两岸最高公权力部门则需要研究双方和平共存的法理依据问题。根据两岸关系的特殊性,笔者主张区分政治与行政两个不同层面的事务,并借鉴西方的公共治理理念,双方公权力部门可主动地进行适度的战略收缩,让两岸民间社会的力量进一步释放出来,成为引导和推动两岸和平发展新的力量,成为两岸公权力部门合理有效的补充。     

马英九“软实力”思想评析

在马英九以大陆为主要对象的“国家安全政策”中,“软实力”是一个十分重要的概念。他企图以政治价值观的漫洇,推动大陆民主化;以文化、教育理念的扩散,输出价值观;以“活路外交”塑造“民主台湾”、“文化台湾”的形象,最终达到对大陆实施“软制约”、“软制衡”的目标。虽然,由于岛内外种种原因的限制,马英九的“软实力”思想尚未对大陆产生明显的影响力,但这一切是在“没有硝烟的战场”上实施的,应引起我们足够的重视。     

西部高校毕业生求职难度影响因素的实证研究——基于社会资本、人力资本与物质资本的比较研究及其交互效应

本研究旨在考察社会资本、人力资本与物质资本及其交互变量对高校毕业生求职难度的影响。实证分析发现:社会资本、人力资本与物质资本对高校毕业生职业获得难度存在显著的影响。在搜寻成本模型中,社会资本同人力资本的交互项对高校毕业生在求职过程中的搜寻成本存在正向影响,即社会资本欠缺者,可以通过提升人力资本以降低搜寻成本;在求职结果模型中,社会资本同人力资本的交互项对高校毕业生的最终求职结果存在负向影响,即社会资本欠缺者,可以通过提升人力资本以提高求职成功的概率,从而降低求职难度。     

社会结构异质性与流动儿童社会网络的建构——以同伴关系为核心

本文以同伴关系为切入点,考察社会结构异质性因素对流动儿童社会网络建构的影响。研究发现,流动儿童在同伴关系建构过程中表现出较高的主动性,交往对象呈现外向发展特征;流动儿童的兄妹数、成绩好坏、自身生活方式以及对城市居民态度的认知对其发展同伴关系的主动性有影响;流动儿童生活体验和生活环境对其发展同伴关系对象选择有影响。本文以实证研究回应了几种相悖的研究结论:布劳的肯定性结论与国内多数学者的否定性结论,系出自不同语境,各有合理性,但某些结论也需要进一步讨论。     

The Totalisation of Human Social Practice: Open Marxists and Capitalist Social Relations, Foucauldians and Power Relations

This article critiques Open Marxism for an ontology which totalises human social practice—for Open Marxists, capitalist social relations are the singular constitutive source of human activity. Such a stance is superficially attractive yet ultimately inadequate, and I reinforce my case by demonstrating how other critical approaches—in this article, Foucauldian perspectives on power—suffer from similar deficiencies. Thus there is a need to resist the temptation of claiming to know how human social practice can be understood with recourse to a singular aspect (no matter how important) of such practice. I conclude that an excellent example of how to avoid such pitfalls is provided by Antonio Gramsci's writings, for they acknowledge the multifaceted yet nevertheless anchored existence lived by humans in capitalist societies.     

Can We Make Accurate Long-term Predictions About Patterns of De-escalation in Offending Behavior?

This study consists of a comparative analysis of patterns of de-escalation between ages 17–18 and 32, based on data from two well-known prospective longitudinal studies, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (a study of 411 working-class males in London) and the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study (a sample of 470 adjudicated French-Canadian males). Analyses focus on within-individual change, with individuals serving as their own controls. In this regard, the magnitude of measured change is relative to the past degree of involvement in offending. These results are contrasted with predictors of between-individual differences in offending behavior at age 32. We investigate the respective roles of cognitive predispositions and social bonds in the prediction of patterns of de-escalation, and assess whether it is possible to make relatively long-term predictions (over a 15-year period) about offending in adulthood. Findings suggest that traditional measures of social bonds and cognitive predispositions measured at age 17–18 are generally weak predictors of de-escalation up to age 32. However, these measures are stronger predictors of between-individual differences in offending gravity. These findings highlight the difficulties in making accurate long-term predictions about changes in individual offending patterns early in the criminal career.

Parents, Friends, and Romantic Partners: Enmeshment in Deviant Networks and Adolescent Delinquency Involvement

Adolescent networks include parents, friends, and romantic partners, but research on the social learning mechanisms related to delinquency has not typically examined the characteristics of all three domains simultaneously. Analyses draw on data from the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (n = 957), and our analytic sample contains 51% male and 49% female as well as 69% white, 24% African-American, and 7% Latino respondents. Parents,’ peers,’ and partners’ deviance are each related to respondents’ delinquency, and affiliation with a greater number of deviant networks is associated with higher self-reported involvement. Analyses that consider enmeshment type indicate that those with both above average romantic partner and friend delinquency report especially high levels of self-reported involvement. In all comparisons, adolescents with deviant romantic partners are more delinquent than those youths with more prosocial partners, regardless of friends’ and parents’ behavior. Findings highlight the importance of capturing the adolescent’s entire network of affiliations, rather than viewing these in isolation, and suggest the need for additional research on romantic partner influences on delinquent behavior and other adolescent outcomes.

Examining Temporal Associations Between School Connectedness and Early Adolescent Adjustment

This study examined (a) the associations between school connectedness and early adolescent adjustment problems over a 1 year period and (b) the equivalence of these associations across gender. Five hundred middle school students (53.4% female), initially in the 6th and 7th grades, participated in the two-wave study. Results from two-group cross-lagged panel analyses were consistent across boys’ and girls’ data. After controlling for baseline levels of adjustment problems, school connectedness predicted lower levels of early adolescent conduct problems 1 year later. Regarding the opposite direction of associations, and even after baseline levels of school connectedness were taken into account, conduct problems predicted lower levels of subsequent school connectedness. There were no cross-lagged associations between depressive symptoms and school connectedness, although elevated levels of baseline depressive symptoms predicted higher levels of subsequent conduct problems. Findings elaborate previous research by demonstrating that early adolescents actively shape the middle school environment.

Early Adolescents’ Social Standing in Peer Groups: Behavioral Correlates of Stability and Change

Sociometric nominations, social cognitive maps, and self-report questionnaires were completed in consecutive years by 327 students (56% girls) followed longitudinally from grade 7 to grade 8 to examine the stability of social standing in peer groups and correlates of changes in social standing. Social preference, perceived popularity, network centrality, and leadership were moderately stable from grade 7 to grade 8. Alcohol use and relational aggression in grade 7 predicted changes in social preference and centrality, respectively, between grade 7 and grade 8, but these effects were moderated by gender and ethnicity. Changes in social standing from grade 7 to grade 8 were unrelated to grade 8 physical aggression, relational aggression, and alcohol use after controlling for the grade 7 corollaries of these behaviors. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for understanding links between social standing and problem behaviors during adolescence.

劳动关系研究英美模式比较——形成的回顾与20世纪80年代后的变化

美国和英国是劳动关系理论发源地,也是对劳动关系理论发展做出重大贡献的国家。他们为劳动关系研究提供了最基本的研究范式。由于两个国家工业化的道路不同,工会运动发展的路径不同,两国劳动关系的研究在研究范围、研究方法、学者和学科来源以及构成上都存在一定差异。