论印度在东南亚的软实力

印度软实力源自印度悠久的历史和灿烂的文化。印度在东南亚的软实力主要表现为印度对东南亚国家的双边和多边外交、印度对东南亚国家开展的广泛的经济社会文化合作,以及形式多样、丰富多彩的印度文化产品等。与其他西方国家相比,印度在东南亚展示其软实力的手段与方式更加多元化,也更加容易为东南亚国家所接受。     

伊、巴、印关于IPI天然气管道的地缘政治战略博弈

IPI即从伊朗南帕尔斯气田通向巴基斯坦、印度的天然气管道,其谈判历程曲折复杂,其间不仅夹杂着伊、巴、印三方各自的利益诉求,而且还集中了大国间的利益纷争和矛盾,彼此的碰撞和博弈异常激烈。伊朗欲借此改善国内经济困境、稳定政局、打破美国的围堵。巴基斯坦欲借此缓解国内能源危机、改善巴伊关系、增加同印度谈判的筹码。印度也欲借此缓解国内能源短缺状况,加强与伊朗的能源合作,在能源争夺战中抢占先机。美国出于打压伊朗的目的,极力阻扰IPI的实施。     

流动人口留京意愿的影响因素研究

基于北京市流动人口家庭户调查数据,运用Logistic回归方法分析影响在京流动人口留京意愿的主要影响因素。实证数据表明,是否拥有住房和在京时间是影响流动人口留京意愿的关键因素。而是否有配偶对流动人口留京意愿的影响并不显著。此外,城市适应作为影响流动人口留京意愿上的作用并不十分显著。尤其是生活水平满意度和社会接纳状况对流动人口的留京意愿的影响均不显著。     

The political economy of sugarcane flexing: initial insights from Brazil,Southern Africa and Cambodia

In the context of rising resource demand, agricultural crops such as sugarcane are being promoted for their multiple uses in different commodity markets and as alternatives to fossil fuel equivalents (i.e. as a source of biofuel, bioelectricity and bioplastic). These commodities are also produced on an increasingly flexible basis, as sugarcane mills respond to price signals and switch between different crop uses. This paper offers a preliminary exploration into the politics of this latest development in the capitalist industrialization of agriculture. It does so by focusing primarily on flexing in Brazil and highlighting the role of the state in both creating markets for non-food products that sugarcane mills can now switch between and managing the tensions that arise from this. These tensions have concerned consumer prices for fuel, control of distribution infrastructure and conditions of land conversion, each prompting political interventions by the state. The paper then suggests how this same process is taking place, albeit shaped by different contexts, in Southern Africa and Cambodia. It concludes with some key questions for further research: is flexing eroding the distinction between crop regimes? How do primary processors decide what their product mix will be? And on what basis do state actors support flexing between agricultural products and investments in so-called bio-refineries?     

Population Pressures and the North–South Divide between the first century and 2100

This article examines the relationship between the populations of the more and less developed societies between the first century and 2100. Such an analysis reveals a changing dependency between the level of development (and GDP) achieved and population numbers between the first century and 1998. In relation to the past the article suggests a dynamic model for dividing the world into more and less developed areas. In relation to the present and the future it bases the population analysis on the developmental division of the world as published by one of the co-authors of this article. The article largely uses population estimates (with those referring to the past taken from Angus Maddison and those referring to the future from the most recent projections by the United Nations). Taking the 2013 UN projection as a model, it discusses three variants for demographic development in the North and South up to 2100. It argues that the more restrictive population growth variants of the UN projection predict a greater relative ‘Third Worldisation’ of the world than does the most dynamic projection.     

The post-development impasse and the state in India

After discussing the various points of departure suggested by scholars of development, this paper argues that, in the context of India, one way out of the post-development impasse lies in shifting the focus from development politics to the workings of the developmental state on the ground, and to change the methodological vantage point to ethnography. It is suggested that this change in approach would provide fresh insights into the workings of the developmental state and into the process of development in India.     

加强新形势下流动人口管理不断深化"三基"工程建设

加强流动人口管理服务工作,是"三基"工程建设的一项重要内容,也是当前经济转轨、社会转型特殊历史时期提高社会治安管理能力的有效手段。面对新形势、新环境、新任务,摒弃旧观念,着力研究、探索和创新流动人口管理服务的新举措、新方法,是摆在各级公安机关面前一个既现实又重要的课题。     

青年流动人口教育健康效应及群体差异研究

在“健康中国”战略背景下,如何更充分地发挥青年流动人口的健康人力资本效用,值得关注。本研究基于2014年流动人口动态监测调查社会融合专题调查数据,采用Logistic回归和OLS回归方法,就受教育程度对青年流动人口不同健康指标的影响进行了分析。研究表明：青年流动人口受教育程度由初中向高中提升能够促进正向健康自评,但高等教育加剧了健康随时间推移而变差的感知;女性、农业户籍、80后青年流动人口的健康状况更明显地受到受教育程度的影响。研究建议：通过缩小城乡教育质量差距、加强多元化心理健康支持、提高流动人口社会融合水平等举措,提升青年流动人口的人力资本质量,促进青年流动人口全面发展。     

管理与服务:流动人口治理工作的双飞翼

流动人口是当代社会关注的热点问题,加强对流动人口的管理刻不容缓.对于流动人口,既要加强管理,规范法律法规、管理手段、管理制度;又要强调服务,切实做好流动人口的权益保护工作,真正提高流动人口的社会地位.管理与服务并重,是目前流动人口治理工作的有效模式.     

《舞论》对印度戏剧的历史影响:以库迪亚旦剧为例

婆罗多的《舞论》是印度古代著名的梵语文艺理论著作。它不仅深刻地影响了后世梵语文学与艺术理论的建构,也对一些重要的印度古代传统艺术如婆罗多舞、卡塔卡利舞和库迪亚旦剧等产生了重要的影响。与中国的昆曲一道,库迪亚旦剧于2001年被联合国教科文组织(UNESCO)列入首批人类非物质文化遗产代表作名录。库迪亚旦剧也是深受《舞论》影响的南印度喀拉拉邦的地方传统戏剧,它在漫长的历史岁月中,为了适合本土观众的欣赏情趣,大量吸纳了当地文化要素,从而为自己的长期流传打下了坚实的基础。《舞论》对其剧场建造、戏剧表演类型、戏剧人物塑造、形体与语言表演、舞蹈和音乐等各个方面均产生了积极的理论影响。库迪亚旦剧的表演至少涉及《舞论》提及的10种戏剧中的4种。库迪亚旦剧遵循《舞论》所规定的面部神态表演论、眼神表演论、手势论和步伐表演论等。《舞论》强调戏剧表演与舞蹈表演、音乐表演的三位一体,这一点在库迪亚旦剧中也有体现。库迪亚旦剧运用源自《舞论》音阶论和调式论的21种拉格和10种节奏类型。由于喀拉拉邦处在南印度达罗毗茶文化区,《舞论》基本原理和表演规范对库迪亚旦剧的影响,是后者的一种选择性或变异性接受。例如,库迪亚旦剧的服饰、化装与舞台布景,遵循与《舞论》所载区别极大的一种模式。