菲南和平进程的回顾与思考

为了和平解决菲南穆斯林分离主义问题，菲律宾政府与穆斯林反政府武装“摩洛民族解放阵线”先后签署两个和平协议，与“摩洛伊斯兰解放阵线”也进行了长时间的和平谈判，但仍未实现菲南的和平。原因在于菲律宾政府与穆斯林组织在实现和平的目标方面存在重大分歧；双方已签署的和平协议未能成功实施，削弱了人们对和平进程的信心；此外，也未能形成一个达成和实施和平协议的有利环境。     

Y chromosome J2 subtyping in an Italian sample: Population and forensic implications

In the recent years the Y chromosome genealogy has been refined by a number of newly discovered SNPs. The non-random distribution of the Y chromosome lineages worldwide makes fundamental the dissection and characterisation of haplogroups associated with specific geographic areas. In Southern Europe the haplogroup J2, as defined by the M172 marker, can reach frequencies up to 35%, making the dissection of such lineage critical for population studies. Here we present a study on J2 chromosomes from the Italian peninsula. Populations and forensic implications are discussed. A total of 900 individuals were previously genotyped for a number of SNPs, including M172. More than 200 of these have been now genotyped for 7 SNPs within the J2 lineage using a multiplex SNaPshot approach. The different distribution of the various lineages in different geographic areas probably reflects different historical demographic events and points to differential Y chromosome haplotype distribution, with implication for forensic application of this genetic marker.     

对重点人口管理制度的经济分析

重点人口管理在实践中存在着许多普遍性问题,原因在于制度设计时未考虑经济因素.对重点人口管理制度进行经济分析,可以发现其管理制度存在运行成本过高导致执行主体缺乏投入的积极性和可能性、监督成本过高导致监督缺位和"产权"设定的不合理挫伤了成本投入主体的积极性等缺陷.重点人口管理应从列管、核实查证、日常管理三个环节来降低运行成本;通过改革监督评价指标来降低监督成本;通过交易明晰"产权",使成本投入者在重点人口管理工作中获得应有的收益.     

Cultivation and Use of Opium in Rural India: Bottom-Up Insights Into Anti-Drug Efforts

Although India is a major supplier of licit (i.e., legally grown) opium, it is also a leading producer of illicit (i.e., illegally grown) opium. To learn who might be involved in both types of production, the researchers interviewed 50 licensed opium farmers in Madhya Pradesh. Those interviews covered, among other aspects, farmers’ opium use, community attitudes towards addiction and trafficking, and knowledge of government-set opium prices and regulations. In general, some of those interviewed outlined both informal social controls and shunning, used against rural addicts, and support, even if grudgingly given, for government regulation. Those same interviews, however, revealed evidence of important social/economic changes that are undercutting the limited efficacy of extant formal controls in curtailing opium use, addiction, and trafficking.     

Survival analysis: A survey

This paper is a survey of statistical methods used to analyze the length of time until a specified event occurs. These models have often been used to analyze the survival times (i.e., time until death) of medical patients, and so the term survival analysis is natural. In criminology, the main application of these models has been to analyze the time until recidivism, but many other applications are possible. The paper summarizes the statistical literature on survival analysis, and describes its applications in criminology. The methods are illustrated by an application to the prediction of time until recidivism for a sample of North Carolina prison releasees.     

中国云南与印度经济关系的历史

本文分三个部分，分别阐述公元7世纪前、后以及近代中国云南与印度经济关系发展的三个阶段。文章认为西南丝绸之路的形成带来了云南及西南地区与印度间第一个贸易高峰，唐宋以后则表现为文化交流与经贸往来的互动，至近代再次出现以棉纱和生丝为代表的贸易高峰。云南与印度的经贸往来是中印交流史上的重要内容之一。     

论流动人口动态管理的警务协作

随着经济的发展、城市化的推进,城市规模不断扩大,行业分工不断细化,吸引了大量的外来流动人口进城创业和就业。在社会治安的视野下,流动人口管理出现了瓶颈性问题。人口的输入地和输出地公安机关,打破传统的条块分割的封闭状态,突破人为界限加强警种之间、地区之间的警务协作,是科学解决流动人口管理问题的新路子。     

论中国法、伊斯兰法和印度法对东南亚的影响

东南亚地区是一个具有相当特殊性的法域,古老的习惯法、古代中国法、伊斯兰法、印度法在这一地区混合,其情形十分复杂、混乱。概括起来,有如下特点:中国作为东亚和东南亚文明的轴心,中国古代法对所有东南亚国家均产生了普遍、深远的影响,但越南、新加坡等国受古代中华法系的影响要大一些;马来西亚、印度尼西亚和文莱等以信仰伊斯兰教为主的国家及菲律宾南部地区则受伊斯兰法的影响较大;三是在地理位置上靠近印度的缅甸、柬埔寨、老挝和泰国则受印度法的影响较大。     

Indian spies inside Pakistan: South Asian human intelligence across borders

This article examines India’s historical efforts to spy inside Pakistan from the mid-1960s to the early 1970s. It draws from memoirs of notable Indian spies who were jailed for espionage in Pakistan and spy ‘fiction’ written by former Indian intelligence and military officers who allege their writing is based on actual cases. The article highlights commonalities among Indian spies using the words of Indian officers to better understand human intelligence efforts inside Pakistan. It finds that Indian spies in these books have initially been Hindus or from multi-religious families, from the Indian-Pakistan border and have been poorly treated by the Indian government and its intelligence services.     

Negotiating universalism in India and Latin America: Fiscal decentralization,subnational politics and social outcomes

ABSTRACT

This is the introductory paper for a special issue which focuses on an exploration of how vertical inter-governmental political and fiscal bargains and horizontal variation in political, social and economic conditions across regions contribute to or undermine the provision of inclusive and sustainable social policies at the subnational level in Latin America and India. The papers incorporate both federal, as well as decentralized unitary states, pointing to common political tensions across unitary and federal settings despite the typically greater institutionalization of regional autonomy in federal countries. Jointly, the papers examine the territorial dimension of universalism and explore, in greater and empirical detail, the causal links between fiscal transfers, social policies and outcomes, highlighting the political dynamics that shape fiscal decentralization reforms and the welfare state. This introductory essay reviews existing scholarship, and highlights the contribution of the special issue to understanding these issues beyond OECD contexts.