On filtering longitudinal public opinion data: Issues in identification and representation of true change

The Kalman filter is a popular tool in engineering and economics. It is becoming popular in political science, touted for its abilities to reduce measurement error and produce more precise estimates of true public opinion. Its application to survey measures of public opinion varies in important ways compared to the traditionally understood Kalman filter. It makes a priori assumptions about the variance of the sampling error that would not usually be made and does so in a way that violates an important property of the Kalman filter. Consequently, the behavior of the filter modified for public opinion measures is less well-known. Through simulations we assess whether and to what extent filtering: reliably detects the characteristics of time series; does so across series with different rates of autoregressive decay; and does so when the variance of the sampling error is unknown. We also examine whether the filtered data represents the level of true underlying variance and the extent to which filtering assists or hinders our ability to detect exogenous shocks. We learn a numbers of things. Most importantly, taking into account sampling error variance when filtering data can work well, though its performance does vary. First, filtering works best identifying time series characteristics when assuming a stationary process, even if the underlying process contains a unit root. Second, the performance of filtering drops off when we incorrectly specify the variance of the sampling error, and especially when we overestimate it. Third, when estimating exogenous shocks it is better to make no a priori assumptions regarding a measurement error variance unless we are absolutely certain we know what it is. In fact, applying the filter without specifying the measurement error variance is more often than not the best choice.     

刑事被害人救助制度应当遵循的基本原则

救助是社会保障制度的组成部分,司法救助是将社会救助的理念引入司法领域。国外已经有部分国家制定了“被害人补偿法”或相关法规。我国构建被害人救助制度时应当遵循以下五项原则:弘扬正义,救助与损害相适应,有条件获得救助,以赔偿为主、救助为辅,政府为主、多方援助。     

Social Agency, Spatial Practices, and Power: The Micro-foundations of Fragmented Sovereignty in the Occupied Territories

The study of the relationships among social agency, spatial practices, and political power opens new directions for empirical inquiry and theorization of current modalities of sovereignty. Yet, recent research has overemphasized external variables, such as globalization and international forces, as conditioners of sovereignty and state power, with diminished attention on national and local realms. In the following article, I investigate state power beyond the limits of its official boundaries, by examining how intruder states produce, manage, and sustain effective authority over occupied territories and populations. I use the example of the Israeli occupation in the West Bank to demonstrate how such cases of political authority are based on fragmented sovereignty: comprised of multiple, localized, and relatively autonomous cores of power, instead of an all-encompassing structural and centralized modality of control. I propose that fragmented sovereignty is shaped and operated through the increasing autonomous power of ground level state agents and in the ways spatial perceptions and practices are interwoven into localized political processes.

论房屋征收补偿协议要式化的困境与出路

房屋征收补偿协议的法律属性是行政契约,征收人的签约行为是一种要式行政行为。我国相关法律规范对房屋征收补偿协议签约行为的主体、程序、内容与方式等进行了要式化构造。通过考察房屋征收补偿的地方法律规范、裁判文书以及征收补偿实践参与者的感受,可以发现补偿协议签约行为要式化在实践中存在征收人权力行使恣意、被征收人的契约性权利遭受严重侵害的困境。落实与完善房屋征收补偿协议签约行为的要式化法律制度,应以"权力与契约的整合"为法理指引,建立签约阶段主体地位平等关系,利用签约程序规制行政权力,提升签约内容的合意性以及强调签约方式的合作性,并在上述理念指引下,以限定签约主体范围与进行信用管理,完善前置程序、签约期限与救济程序,优化奖励制度、协商机制与生效要件,实施违法监督与行政问责等为具体出路。     

中菲南海争端仲裁庭的法律问题

菲律宾无视它与中国之间《南海各方行为宣言》的存在与有效性,以变相的岛礁主权争端和海洋划界争端的方式,单方面提起南海争端强制仲裁。虽然此举不符合《联合国海洋法公约》（以下简称《公约》）规定的条件,但并不意味着菲律宾启动该程序具有非法性。即使中国不接受该仲裁和不参与仲裁程序,也不影响中菲仲裁庭的合法成立及其程序的合法性与对中国不利裁决的有效性。因此,对待仲裁庭的后续书面程序和口诉程序,中国是维持现行政策还是重新参与,是值得重新评估的一个问题。重新参与后续程序应该是中国的一个适当政策选择。因为参与所面临的最大挑战——南海“断续线”的法律地位——可以通过反驳《公约》对之不适用从而避免澄清其地位的棘手问题。更重要的是,依据“南方蓝鳍金枪鱼案”仲裁庭的推理与裁决和中国2006年声明以及国际海洋划界与外大陆架划界案例,《南海各方行为宣言》属于《公约》第281条第1款中排除附件7强制仲裁的“协议”,菲律宾的大部分实体请求属于不可裁决事项,因而仲裁庭应该裁定对本争端无管辖权或不可受理。即使中国继续奉行不参与政策,也不应该无所作为。中国可以采取“间接参与”的方式,在仲裁庭开始书面程序后,公开发表一份正式书面文件,以全面反对菲律宾提起仲裁和反对仲裁庭对争端的管辖权和可受理性。     

关于代孕法律问题的国际视角分析——以美国加利福尼亚州为例

在一些承认代孕的国家和地区中,美国加利福尼亚州为代孕提供了最为宽松的法律环境,加州法院积累了丰富的代孕判例经验。在加州,有偿代孕和无偿代孕同样受到法律保护。单身人士、已婚夫妻及同性恋者都可以通过代孕而实现养育子女的愿望。     

The family state: a non-realist approach to understanding Indonesia’s foreign policy

ABSTRACT

The existing literature on Indonesia’s foreign policy has excluded the state from the category of an agent which shapes the country’s external affairs. This trend certainly ignores the notion that foreign policy is a unique state activity taking place in the interface between domestic and international politics. To fill the gap, this article explores the idea about the family state and looks at its influence on the conduct of Indonesia’s international relations. The argument is that the family state pursues order in international society in which sovereignty can be maintained. Indonesia plays the role of an order-maker in Southeast Asia through the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). The order-oriented actions are displayed by Jakarta’s diplomacy to resolve border disputes with neighbouring countries in the region.     

No direct taxation without new elite representation: Industrialization and the domestic politics of taxation

The nineteenth century marked the founding period of modern public finance. We examine the domestic and non-war related determinants of direct taxation in this early democratic period and in a state building context. We argue that the reasons for the expansion of direct taxation can be found in the political competition between different elite groups in the context of industrialization. Systematically differentiating between economic and political arenas, we show that intra-elite competition in industrializing economies leads to higher levels of direct taxation only if the new economic elites are able to translate their economic power into the political arena, either through the representative system or by extra-parliamentary means. In addition, we demonstrate that these processes are directly linked to public investments in policy areas related to the interests of new economic elites such as public education. Our analysis is based on novel subnational data from the period 1850 to 1910, enabling us to concentrate on the domestic determinants of direct taxation.     

UNFCCC negotiations (pre-Kyoto to COP-9): what the process says about the politics of CDM-sinks

One of the most contentious issues in the negotiations aimed at operationalizing the Kyoto Protocol was the treatment of sinks and, particularly, the eligibility of sinks projects in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). This paper attempts to analyse the politics underlying these negotiations, drawing on methods of process tracing, key informant interviews, negotiating texts and secondary literature. Tracing the sinks debate and highlighting key lessons about the nature of global environmental agreements and their institutional arrangements is the first step to recounting the history of the politics of one of the major contemporary international environmental debates. The paper shows that the Kyoto Protocol negotiations on sinks and CDM-sinks were multilaterally supported as a practical solution, but went ‘off track’ due to actors’ interests and tradeoffs. As regards future negotiations on forest sinks in developing countries under the framework of the UNFCCC, the paper argues that these are likely to be influenced by similar constraints, and also by the conservation and development agenda of its supporters; as well as the experience gathered on the CDM and the interests and concerns of developing countries. We broadly frame the paper within the literature on global environmental politics.

词义的静态主指关系及其功能

静态主指关系作为词义中最重要的成分,以其客观性、概括性、概念对应性、社会性、民族性和发展性等性质,发挥着确定词形、确定词在词的总汇中的位置、确定词义在静态中的宏观聚合关系的内部功能和备用、认知、承载等外部功能。