Introduction of a standardized "paternity index" for the statistical evaluation of blood group findings in paternity testing

The introduction of a standardized paternity index (PI) for the statistical evaluation of blood group findings in cases of disputed paternity is proposed and explained. By using the PI $\text{X}\text{Y}$ as parameter, it is not necessary to give the information of the probability of paternity in percent. The PI includes the full information of the blood group findings. In addition to that, by using the suggested standardization based on the probabilities of error according to Schulte Mönting and Walter the test volume is also taken into account. The interpretation of the mathematical result is given by verbal predicates, the limitations of which are orientated by the verbal predicates for the probabilities of error according to Schulte Mönting and Walter, published by us elsewhere. Besides the essential fact that the test volume is taken into account, the most important advantage of this procedure is that the mathematical result is involved in the court decision only by the PI (which is free of any valuation) and its verbal predicate and not by sometimes relatively high percentages, which may be misunderstood by laymen.     

评有关企业“改制”的数据推论

依据简单的经验性统计分析和计量回归对私有化的企业改制成效所作的论证具有许多根本性的逻辑错误:将局部性的问题夸大成全局性的问题;颠倒了因果关系;不分析产生统计数字的具体环境,而作出了与实际情况相反的结论;只考虑利润率这样的效率因素就得出应将国有企业都私有化的结论;将有完善制度的私营企业与制度尚不完善的国有企业相比较;等等。依据这类研究的数据结果所作的推论是不可靠的,由这种推论所得出的有关私有化的重大结论是不可信的。     

Sentencing Using Statistical Treatment Rules: What We Don’t Know Can Hurt Us

The existing literature seriously misinterprets the available evidence on the predictability of high rate criminal offending and thus the potential value of statistical treatment rules that impose stiffer punishments on offenders with higher predicted risk of recidivism. The misinterpretation results from the failure to take account of the fact that the data used in existing risk assessment exercises come from environments characterized by informal (and sometimes formal) attempts by judges and other actors to base penal treatments on expected recidivism. Findings of little or no predictive power for baseline covariates may simply indicate the efficient use of the available information. We lay out the problem in detail, provide examples from several literatures and then consider general solutions to the problem.

城乡体化发展启新篇章———学习党的十八届三中全会精神体会

党的十八届三中全会制定了全面深化改革的总体方案,对城乡一体化发展从加快构建新型农业经营体系、赋予农民更多财产权利、推进城乡要素平等交换和公共资源均衡配置、完善城镇化健康发展体制机制四个方面作出部署,体现了从农业、农民、农村、城镇化四个方面着力推进城乡互补发展、共促发展的制度安排,对破除二元结构、开启城乡一体化发展具有重要意义。     

Loess:: a nonparametric, graphical tool for depicting relationships between variables

Loess is a powerful but simple strategy for fitting smooth curves to empirical data. The term “loess” is an acronym for “local regression” and the entire procedure is a fairly direct generalization of traditional least-squares methods for data analysis. Loess is nonparametric in the sense that the fitting technique does not require an a priori specification of the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Although it is used most frequently as a scatterplot smoother, loess can be generalized very easily to multivariate data; there are also inferential procedures for confidence intervals and other statistical tests. For all of these reasons, loess is a useful tool for data exploration and analysis in the social sciences. And, loess should be particularly helpful in the field of elections and voting behavior because theories often lead to expectations of nonlinear empirical relationships even though prior substantive considerations provide very little guidance about precise functional forms.     

Strategy and Selection in International Relations

It is widely recognized that many of the samples we use for statistical analysis in international politics are the result of some selection process. Not surprisingly, selection models are becoming increasingly popular. At the same time, the role of strategic interaction has begun to play a more important role in statistical analyses. However, it has not been clear how statistical strategic models and selection models relate to each other, or what the effects are of employing one when the other is the more appropriate model. In this article, I 1) clarify why international relations scholars cannot shield themselves from selection bias simply by assuming their results are limited to a given sample; 2) show how recent statistical strategic models relate to traditional selection models and generalize the two sets of models by deriving a correlated strategic model; and 3) examine the effects of misspecifying either correlated errors or strategic interaction. My results indicate that failure to model the strategic interaction produces worse specification error than failure to account for correlated disturbances. In fact, traditional bivariate probit models appear to be superior only when states are almost completely uncertain about each others' preferences.     

当代政治文化建设的若干问题浅析

当今世界的综合国力竞争,中心是经济实力的竞争,关键是科学技术的竞争,实质是文化力的竞争。一个民族,一个国家,如果没有自己的精神支柱,就等于没有灵魂,就会失去凝聚力和生命力。有没有高昂的民族精神,是衡量一个国家综合国力强弱的一个重要尺度。而一个国家民族精神的振奋,民族凝聚力的增强,则离不开政治文化的建设和熏陶。政治文化无论是从微观上提高公民个体的政治素质,还是从宏观上转变整个国民的政治价值观,都将为国家的政治发展提供主体保证。     

The statistical interpretation of refractive index measurements II: The multiple source problem

The method proposed by Grove [1] for comparing measurements made on control and recovered fragments is extended to deal with the possibility that the recovered fragments may originally have come from more than one source. The cases of two and four recovered fragments are examined in detail. Simulation results are given which show that the discriminatory power of the method varies with the number of sources and with the distribution of the fragments over those sources. It is greatest when the recovered fragments come from one source.     

测谎原理、冲突与法律思考

测谎是科学技术发展的产物,测谎证据也是自然科学与法律科学交叉共生的结果。通过鉴定结论,可以利用科学技术,给案件的侦破、公诉以及审判带来一些国家层面上的便利,但是,测谎证据同时也会引起国家利益与个人权利、科学与否的冲突。这里,问题的关键是如何给测谎证据以正确的定位。