The application of amino acid racemization in the acid soluble fraction of enamel to the estimation of the age of human teeth

The main objectives of the European project "Collaborative Harmonization of Methods for Profiling of Amphetamine Type Stimulants" (CHAMP) funded by the sixth framework programme of the European Commission, included the harmonization of MDMA profiling methods and the creation of a common database in a drug intelligence perspective. In the preliminary stages of this project, the participating laboratories analysed the physical characteristics, the chemical composition and the organic impurities of MDMA tablets, using the previously harmonized methods. The aim of the present work was to apply statistical treatments to the recorded data in order to evaluate their potential in the fight against drug trafficking. Comparable working procedures were applied on the different types of data. The first part of this article deals with organic impurities data, while the second part focuses on the potential of the physical characteristics. Organic impurities data were recorded by a harmonized Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry (GC/MS) method previously developed. Statistical analysis provided a selection of pertinent variables among the 46 organic impurities identified in the chromatograms. Correlation coefficients were used to yield separation between populations of samples coming from the same synthesis batch and samples coming from different batches. It was shown that correlation measurements based on Pearson and cosine functions applied to the data pre-treated by normalisation to the sum of peak responses followed by the square root provided an excellent discrimination between the two populations. The statistical methods applied to organic impurities profiles proved to be excellent techniques to differentiate samples from different batches and to highlight operational links between samples.     

Evaluating the statistical significance of single band profiles in VNTR analyses

VNTR profiles may present either a single band or two bands. If two bands are present then the individual is a heterozygote for these two bands. However, if only one band is present there is ambiguity as to the true genotype of the individual. This person may be a homozygote in that he has two copies of the same allele, or he may be a heterozygote for two very close bands that cannot be separated on the gel. The second NRC report proposed the use of the '2p' rule, or Formula 4.10a in the sub-structure case, as a conservative upper bound in the statistical interpretation. However, further examination suggests that these formulae are not necessarily conservative. In this paper we examine this phenomenon by deriving a formula that contains both the corrections for null alleles and for subpopulation effects.     

Anti-doping researchers should conform to certain statistical standards from forensic science

Anti-doping is currently viewed as a forensic science. However, close examination shows that the statistical treatment of evidence is inconsistent with that view. Here it is insisted that anti-doping researchers should conform to certain statistical standards from forensic science.     

道路交通事故立案统计不实问题的成因及其对策

交通事故立案统计是了解道路交通现状、分析交通事故成因和制定交通事故防范措施的基础.然而,交通管理部门经常有交通事故立案统计不实的问题.针对这一问题,应分析其成因,并寻找相应的对策.     

The calculation of DNA match probabilities in mixed race populations

A coherent method is offered to estimate likelihood ratios for DNA match probabilities from mixed racial populations that avoids the approach of reporting separate estimates for each race. The method is demonstrated for some cases involving profiles derived from several individuals and incorporates a correction for 'subpopulation' effects.     

When can a DNA profile be regarded as unique?

The probability that a defendant's DNA profile is unique in a population of untyped individuals is shown to be bounded below by one minus twice the sum of the match probabilities over the population. This bound assumes that the possibility of laboratory or handling error can be neglected, and applies only when there is no non-DNA evidence in favour of the defendant. There cannot be a completely general lower bound: if there is overwhelming non-DNA evidence that the defendant is not the source of the crime stain, then that is also overwhelming evidence of non-uniqueness. Application to k-locus short tandem repeat (STR) profiles is discussed, and illustrated with calculations based on the 6-STR-locus system used in current UK casework. However, because of the problem of the non-DNA evidence, there seems to be no satisfactory way for an expert witness to address the question of uniqueness in court.     

对刑事案件统计工作的几点思考

刑事案件统计台帐管理和刑事案件统计工作是公安工作的一个重要内容。它对服务侦查破案、认识社会治安形势,研究分析刑事犯罪动向及对策具有重要意义。如何加强此项工作,使其步入科学、规范的轨道,真正发挥其在公安工作中应起的作用,是摆在决策者和统计工作人员面前的共同课题。