Spatial Distributions of Oxygen Stable Isotope Ratios in Tap Water From Mexico for Region of Origin Predictions of Unidentified Border Crossers

One of the many difficulties associated with identifying undocumented border crossers stems from an inability to narrow down the search area for the region of origin and family members to obtain family reference samples for DNA comparison. While the geography of regions of origins is wide, the biological profiles of the undocumented border crossers often show strong similarities, young and male. The isotopic composition of human bones, teeth, and hair has been demonstrated to be useful biomarkers for tracing locations and movements of individuals and for aiding in the identification of human remains. Data obtained from human remains can be compared to and aligned with various reference sources, such as soils and bedrock, archaeological remains, or cultural data. Here, the spatial deficiency in isotopic reference data for Mexico, specifically for oxygen (δ¹⁸O) isotopes in tap water, is being addressed through the collection and analysis of over 150 water samples and explored with tooth enamel isotopic values from recently identified Mexican nationals. The isoscape was developed using a Spine with Barriers interpolation method and shows sufficient detail to narrow down the regions where specific isotopic values are represented. The individuals were plotted on the developed isoscape using conditional correlations. The methodology was successful in assigning the correct regions of origin for the two individuals, which shows the tremendous potential of the developed isoscape. Nonetheless, there is more research needed to further improve upon this geolocation method, including analysis of multiple isotopes in different tissues, and the development of new isotopic methods.     

Implementing violence and incident reporting measures on a forensic mental health unit

The assessment of risk and prediction of violence in mental health units can play a large role in creating a safer environment for both the staff and the patients. Nurses in forensic units are in a unique position in regards to assessment of violence as they spend a great deal of time with the patients. Nurses on a forensic mental health unit scored the Brøset Violence Checklist (BVC) twice daily for 12 weeks for all patients either resident on or admitted to the unit (N?=?46). The Staff Observation Aggression Scale-Revised (SOAS-R) was used to report any adverse incidents (N?=?51). Data were examined at the both the item and scale level. Main results showed the area under the curve values of the BVC score, slide rule, and the sum of BVC and slide rule score in turn demonstrated strong predictive accuracy for inpatient aggression (0.68–0.73). Through logistic regression analyses the BVC uniquely predicted inpatient aggression but adding the slide rule did not improve prediction. Predictive accuracy was found across three diagnostic groups – dementia, psychosis and substance use disorders. These results provide further support on the predictive accuracy of the BVC for short-term violence in forensic mental health settings.     

Prediction of attitudes towards child sexual abuse among three different Norwegian samples

Abstract

The aim of the current study was to reveal attitudes towards child sexual abuse and investigate predictors of such attitudes. A random sample of the Norwegian adult population (n = 296), active Christians (n = 125) and prisoners convicted of child sexual abuse (n = 36) were included in the study. The results show that women were more negative towards child sexual abuse than men, and the prisoners had more accepting attitudes than the other samples. Predictors of attitudes differed across the samples. Empathy and normlessness were the best predictors of attitudes among the random sample of adults and the active Christians. The largest predictor of attitudes among the prisoners was their view of women. The implications of the results for prevention strategies are discussed.     

Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States, 1948-2004

SUMMARY

This research updates, revises, and extends a forecasting equation of the presidential vote in the states. The original equation was composed of sixteen predictors available well before the election and estimated with data from 531 state elections from 1948 to 1988. The equation was empirically strong, based on objective predictors, and more parsimonious than previous equations. Reexamining the equation with 200 additional state elections from 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 indicates that the equation remains well supported, but suggests several opportunities for improvement. A revised equation has a mean absolute error of 3.2 percentage points and correctly predicts 87 percent of all electoral votes. The extension of the analysis adapts the forecast equation to predict electoral vote winners, conducting a logit analysis that takes into account both the size of the state and the closeness of its previous election. This produces more accurate forecasts of both electoral vote winners in the states and the division of the aggregate national electoral vote.     

毒品犯罪的预防与惩治

毒品严重危害着人类健康和社会安宁,成为困扰社会的最严重问题之一。随着我国改革开放不断深入,在学习和借鉴外国先进文化科学技术的同时,西方国家享乐至上的腐朽思想意识也涌入我国,特别是近几年毒品犯罪日益猖獗。而毒品违法犯罪的预防工作应是党政机关、司法机关、家庭、社会四位一体共同组成的整体预防的网络体系。因此笔者对毒品犯罪的特点、犯罪形成的原因进行了分析,并提出了预防毒品犯罪的对策。     

地区治安危机感知模糊评价与预测

地区民众与警察在不同程度上都具有一个对治安状态的危机感知,这种意识的作用往往大于对统计数据的依赖。文章跳出传统犯罪统计与数据分析的研究框架,运用感知调查量表和模糊综合评价方法,对地区治安危机感知进行了分析与评价。首先建立了治安危机感知概念,并且确定了地区犯罪率和违法率的感知等级,然后,通过对某地区的感知问卷调查,得出了治安危机感知度,根据感知等级度与犯罪率与违法率对应数据区间的分析,得出了该地区治安危机感知的评价结果和预测结果。     

鸡Toll样受体3基因全长的扩增及生物信息学分析

利用RT-PCR方法从广西三黄鸡外周血淋巴白细胞中扩增出鸡Toll样受体3基因(TLR3),进而对其进行序列分析和结构预测。结果显示,扩增出的TLR3基因全长为3 036bp,与GenBank中鸡TLR3序列同源性达96.5%～99.7%,突变主要集中在胞外区前173个氨基酸;与牛、鼠、绵羊、猪、马、家兔、黑猩猩、人、大猩猩的氨基酸同源性较低,为68.0%～74.8%;禽类TLR3与其他动物类及人类的TLR3分属于两大不同分支,处于不同进化位置;结构预测表明,GX-sh-chTLR3具有明显的跨膜蛋白结构,胞外区蛋白是由外侧多个α螺旋和内侧凹陷的多个β折叠构成螺线管状马鞍形结构,胞外区含有15个明显的富含亮氨酸的重复序列。结果表明,成功扩增出的鸡TLR3基因编码蛋白的空间结构特征明显,为进一步研究该基因的功能奠定了基础。     

Age Estimation in Indians Using Demirjian’s 8‐teeth Method

Abstract: Demirjian’s grading of tooth calcification is widely used to assess age of individuals with developing dentitions. However, its application on numerous populations has resulted in wide variations in age estimates and consequent suggestions for the method’s adaptation to the local sample. Conventionally, Demirjian’s method utilized seven mandibular teeth on the left side. A recent modification incorporated the third molar with a view to apply the method on a wider age‐group. Moreover, the revised method developed regression formulas for assessing age. This paper tested the 8‐teeth method using 547 Indians (348 females, 199 males) aged 7–25 years. Demirjian’s formulas resulted in inferior age prediction in Indians (9.2% misclassification at 99% confidence interval vs. 0% misclassification in the original study); therefore, India‐specific regression formulas were developed, which gave better age estimates (mean absolute error, MAE = 0.87 years) than the original formulas (MAE = 1.29 years). This suggests that Demirjian’s 8‐teeth method also needs adaptation prior to use in diverse populations.     

培养公安院校学员依法使用警械武器能力研究

;通过对公安院校学员依法使用警械武器能力现状的研究,发现我国公安院校学员操作警械武器的能力提升较大,但是依法使用警械武器的能力明显落后于操作能力的训练。通过咨询专家、文献整理和与一线民警交流,发现提高公安院校学员依法准确、快速的认知反应能力显得十分重要。现实执法环境复杂多变,提高学员依法使用警械武器能力,可以有效避免出现各种因不规范操作而出现的失误。     

北京市未来人口发展下的教育需求预测

文章在对北京市未来人口趋势作充分预测的基础上,采用教育生命表技术估计北京市未来各级教育毛入学率等指标,结合人口预测结果预测未来北京市各级教育的需求。