山东半岛地区大学生手长足长与身高关系的研究

对山东半岛地区1000名汉族大学生的手长、足长和身高进行活体测量。经统计学处理，求出由手长、足长与身高相互推算的回归方程式。相关系数为0．51～0．66，其中男性高于女性。由手长推算身高的回归方程式较由足长推算身高的回归方程式，有较高的相关系数和较低的标准估计误差。     

Selective incapacitation and the Philadelphia cohort data

The University of Pennsylvania study of delinquency in a Philadelphia birth cohort has been described byNewsweek as perhaps the most influential piece of criminal justice research in the last decade (March 23, 1981). Many have construed the findings as showing that, if imprisonment were focused on the minority of offenders with especially bad prognoses, the rate of crime could be reduced substantially. But others have taken the opposite view that the cohort data, far from endorsing such a selective incapacitation strategy, might actually provide strong evidence that such an approach is futile. Through some further analyses of the Philadelphia data, we attempt to clarify their policy implications.     

Continuity in crime: Sex and age differences

This study deals primarily with the question of continuity in serious criminality. The study follows a cohort consisting of 15,117 individuals from the age of 15 years through the age of 30 years. The age-based transition probabilities are studied, both for males and for females, showing that the transitions for females conform to a first-order Markov chain, so that the original matrices can be seen as estimates from a single parent matrix. This was not the case for males. The predictive power of prior criminality for later transition probabilities is also studied. Finally, the difference between stating that a given percentage will relapse in crime and the ability to make real prediction is emphasized.     

北京地区地震前兆监测及展望

地震前兆监测是防震减灾的一个重要部分。由专业地震台站和宏观观测网点组成的地震前兆监测台网对北京地区的地震预报发挥了很大的作用。文中也分析了提高北京市地震监测水平需努力的方向。     

根据X线片跖趾骨长宽度推算0～17岁个体身高年龄

本文通过1607例儿童青少年跖趾骨长度和宽度与身高和年龄的相关回归分析，发现两者之间呈高度正相关，相关系数γ=0．859～0．998，相关检验和回归检验P＜0．0025～0．0005，据此分别计算出各跖趾骨长度、宽度推算身高、年龄的直线回归方程，为法医学、人类学提供了基础资料。     

试论网络思潮的预测和引导

网络已成为社会舆论的重要发源地、社会思潮的重要传播载体。加强对社会思潮的预测与引导,用社会主义核心价值体系的先进内容占领网络阵地,是我们当前必须思考和解决的一个重大而紧迫的课题。本文分析了网络思潮的内涵与特点,论述了预测和引导网络思潮的重要性,针对网络思潮所呈现出的不同特点,从对网络思潮的深入挖掘、超前预测、多元化分析、实时监控等方面,探讨了预测和引导网络思潮的有效途径。     

中国青年失业趋势预测

青年失业问题一直是社会关注的重大问题之一。用弹性法和趋势外推法分别对中国2005￣2020年的青年劳动力需求和供给状况进行模拟预测,预测表明,无论从青年失业率还是从失业人数的角度分析,至少在未来15年内失业问题难以缓解,甚至有恶化趋势。各级政府对此要有足够的认识,并采取相应措施着力解决。     

放射影像学方法测量活体女性颈椎推算身高

目的测量颈椎高度建立四川汉族女性人群的身高推算方程，为法医学个人识别提供帮助。方法应用计算机X线摄影放射学方法，在209例四川汉族女性颈椎CR片上测量C3～C7椎体高度，并准确测量身高。按年龄是否大于45岁进行分组，对各颈椎的测量数据与身高进行线性回归分析，建立颈椎推算身高的回归方程。结果共建立一元回归方程36个，多元回归方程12个，所有回归方程经线性回归模型假设检验，均有统计学意义（P〈0．05）。所建立的回归方程的复相关系数（r）在0．628～0．280范围内，回归方程的标准误在4．03～5．03cm范围内。结论本研究所建立的回归方程，可用于四川汉族女性颈椎的身高推算。     

When does open government shut? Predicting government responses to citizen information requests

Methods for the analysis of “big data” on citizen-government interactions are necessary for theoretical assessments of bureaucratic responsiveness. Such big data methods also stand to benefit practitioners' abilities to monitor and improve these emerging transparency mechanisms. We consider supervised latent Dirichlet allocation (sLDA) as a potential method for these purposes. To this end, we use sLDA to examine the Mexican government's (non)responsiveness to all public information requests filed with the federal Mexican government during the 2003–2015 period, and to identify the request topics most associated with (non)responsiveness. Substantively, our comparisons of the topics that are most highly predictive of responsiveness and nonresponsivess indicate that political sensitivity plays a large and important role in shaping official behavior in this arena. We thus conclude that sLDA provides unique advantages for, and insights into, the analysis of (i) textual records of citizen–government interactions and (ii) bureaucratic (non)responsiveness to these interactions.     

律师谋略论

本文针对律师如何为当事人权衡利弊选择方案并在文书写作中力争最大可能影响法官裁判提出了建设性意见