Static and Dynamic Patient Characteristics as Predictors of Criminal Recidivism: A Prospective Study in a Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Sample

If clinicians in forensic psychiatry want to reduce risk of reoffending in their patients, they require insight into dynamic risk factors, and evidence that these add predictive power to static risk indicators. Predictors need to be evaluated under clinically realistic circumstances. This study aimed to validate dynamic and static variables as predictors of reconviction in a naturalistic outcome study. Data on static and dynamic risk factors were collected for 151 patients discharged from Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. Community follow-up was prospective, with a 5.5 year minimum. A prediction model was developed using Cox regression analysis. The magnitude of the predictive power of this model was estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The final prediction model contained four static and no dynamic predictors. The model's ROC area under the curve was .79 (95% CI .69–.89). Clinical risk ratings were non-predictive. Post hoc analyses exploring the influence of subgroups of patients did not yield better models. It is concluded that a small set of static predictors yielded a good estimate of future reconvictions; inclusion of dynamic predictors did not add predictive power.     

人文奥运与北京流动人口犯罪的刑事政策

人文奥运的北京,在流动人口犯罪的预防和控制方面,应体现以人为本的精神,给予流动人口应有的尊重,将"严打"与社会治安综合治理紧密结合,开展犯罪预测,建立犯罪预警机制.     

Risk assessment vs real prediction: The prediction problem and public trust

Confusing risk assessment and the prediction of individual behavior has led to false claims which, if translated into juvenile court or adult sentencing policies (selective incapacitation, for example), may lead to further erosion in public confidence in the justice system. Considerable emphasis has been placed on the consequences of false positives in the literature and in this paper. The false negative has different but equally damaging effects because the impression may be given that increasing the severity of sanctions for selected serious offenders is the solution to juvenile delinquency and adult crime. Analysis of official police records for three birth cohorts from Racine, Wisconsin, reveals that, although high-risk groups produce a disproportionate share of the delinquent and criminal behavior recorded in police reports and juveniles in high-risk groups continue into adult crime disproportionately to others, serious juvenile offenders still account for only a portion of the serious offenses that will ultimately be committed by adults. Therefore, selective incapacitation of early offenders may take only a small bite out of crime. When referrals rather than police contacts were utilized as the predictor variable, there was little difference in predictive efficiency.     

Estimation of stature from foot and shoe measurements by multiplication factors: A revised attempt

Estimation of stature from foot and shoe measurements using multiplication factors is well known. It is a simple method and it is used very frequently as a ready reckoner in forensic anthropology. However the individual error is quite large. In the present work an attempt has been made to evolve revised multiplication factors to reduce this error so that this method (multiplication factor) can be used more effectively with smaller error.     

Predicting risk for early police arrest

A model designed to predict early arrest is presented. Family process variables were hypothesized to be indirectly related; a childhood measure of an antisocial trait was assumed to be directly related to risk for early onset. Longitudinal data were collected for two cohorts of families living in high-crime areas of a mediumsized metropolitan area. Multiagent/multimethod definitions for both the family process and the antisocial trait concepts defined the latent constructs. Official records of police contacts were collected during the ensuing 5 years. The data for the hazard rates showed that risk for police arrest varied significantly as a function of the child's age. A continuous time regression analysis showed that most of the individual family process constructs and the antisocial trait construct were significantly related to an altered risk for police contacts. A multiple regression analysis showed a similar effect in predicting age at onset. In keeping with the hypotheses in both analyses, when all variables were entered simultaneously the contributions of the family process constructs were nonsignificant; only the contributions for the trait score and social disadvantage remained significant. The more antisocial the child, the greater the risk for early arrest.     

白噪声不同信噪比对语音基音和共振峰的影响研究

目的研究不同强度白噪声对语音特征提取的影响,总结变化规律,为带噪语音的声纹鉴定提供参考。方法对TIMIT连续语音语料库中的录音样本加载不同强度白噪声,使用语音工作站提取纯净语音、不同信噪比带噪语音的基频、共振峰,研究分析白噪声对语音特征参数的影响。结果低噪环境下,语音共振峰相对稳定,增大噪声强度,共振峰出现偏移或者无法检出现象;各阶共振峰抗噪能力不同,低阶共振峰抗噪声能力强,稳定度高,高阶共振峰抗噪能力弱,稳定性差,低阶共振峰抗噪能力优于高阶共振峰;基音在各种噪声强度下稳定度高,具备较强鲁棒性。结论信噪比降低会引起共振峰频率偏移,甚至丢失共振峰;噪声对高阶共振峰影响大于低阶共振峰;基频在噪声环境下具备较高的抗干扰能力,声纹鉴定中应重点分析噪声对语音特征的影响。     

Determination of phenotype associated SNPs in the MC1R gene

Prediction of physical appearance based on genetic analysis is a very attractive prospect for forensic investigations. Recent studies have proved that there is a significant association between some genetic variants of the melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) gene and red hair color. The present study focuses on the potential forensic applicability of variation within this pigment-related gene. Sequencing of the complete MC1R gene was performed on a group of red-haired individuals and controls with different pigmentation. A major role in determination of red hair color is played by two MC1R variants--C451T and C478T. The optimized minisequencing assay for genotyping of the above positions and three other important red hair-related MC1R polymorphisms, C252A, G425A, and G880C was successfully applied to analyze typical forensic specimens. Determination of a homozygous or heterozygous combination can be a good predictor of both red hair color and fair skin of a subject.     

论我国死刑制度立法理念及其完善

本文首先介绍了死刑制度及其历史沿革,通过死刑存废之争,以及各国立法例的探讨及法律发展,指出中国现阶段不宜废除死刑,但应通过立法、司法等限制,严格控制死刑的适用范围,并对中国刑事法的发展提出立法预测———中国刑事法人道化。