Pronasale Position: An Appraisal of Two Recently Proposed Methods for Predicting Nasal Projection in Facial Reconstruction

This study examines two recently proposed methods for predicting nose projection from the skull, those developed by Stephan et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol 122, 2003, 240) and Rynn et al. (Forensic Sci Med Pathol 6, 2010, 20). A sample of 86 lateral head cephalograms of adult subjects from Central Europe was measured, and the actual and predicted dimensions were compared. Regarding nose projection (the anterior and vertical position of the pronasale), in general, the method of Rynn et al. (Forensic Sci Med Pathol 6, 2010, 20) was found to perform better and with less error variance than the method of Stephan et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol 122, 2003, 240), but the mean difference between the actual and predicted values did not exceed 2.2 mm (6.5% of the actual dimension) in most of the variables tested. The vertical dimensions of the nose were predictable with greater accuracy than the horizontal dimensions. Although the mean error of both methods is not great in practice and thus both methods could be considered to be “accurate,” the real variance of error should not be overlooked.     

儿童偏矮身材的中医体质分布及风险预测模型构建

目的 调查北京市海淀区学龄前儿童偏矮身材的中医体质和其他影响因素并构建风险预测模型,为儿童偏矮身材的防治提供参考。方法 运用整群抽样和问卷调查方法,共纳入1 612例北京市海淀区学龄前儿童作为研究对象。偏矮身材影响因素的效应大小用比值比（odds ratio,OR）及其95%置信区间（confidence interval,CI）表示。使用STATA 14.0进行统计分析,采用R软件绘制列线图风险预测模型。结果 儿童偏矮身材检出率为14.0%。偏矮身材组和正常身高组阴虚质的分布差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）。多因素Logistic回归分析显示偏矮身材的显著影响因素是父亲身高（OR=0.90,95% CI为0.87~0.93,P=0.000）、母亲身高（OR=0.89,95% CI为0.86~0.92,P=0.000）、出生身长（OR=0.92,95% CI为0.87~0.97,P=0.002）、出生体质量（OR=0.48,95%CI为0.36~0.65,P=0.000）、母乳喂养时间大于12个月（OR=1.51,95% CI为1.11~2.05,P=0.008）、阴虚质（OR=1.19,95% CI为1.01~1.39,P=0.038）。根据显著影响因素构建列线图风险预测模型,一致性指数为71.0%（P<0.001）。结论 儿童偏矮身材可能是遗传、出生情况、母乳喂养和中医体质多因素影响作用的结果。     

The predictive validity of youth violence risk assessment tools: a systematic review

ABSTRACT

This paper reports the findings of a systematic search of published literature which reports the predictive validity of violence risk assessment tools specifically designed for use with youth. A total of 38 studies, involving 9,307 participants, reported data for six different tools; the most common of which were the SAVRY and the YLS/CMI. Each of the tools demonstrated at least moderate levels of predictive validity, with the predictive validity of several newer assessment tools yet to be established. The results provide an up-to-date overview of the state of knowledge in an area in which practitioners make choices about which tools to use on an almost daily basis. It is important that practitioners are aware of the strength of evidence that is available to support the choice of violence risk assessment tools and the interpretation of results.     

Statistical tests of discrimination in punishment

A method, adopted from the labor econometrics literature, is proposed for detecting discrimination in punishment. The method requires the separate estimation of time served and punishment probability equations for, say, whites and blacks. The coefficients from the white equation are used to predict the punishment blacks would receive if treated like whites. A test of no discrimination against blacks is a test that the black punishment predicted by the black equation is equal to the punishment predicted by the equation using the white coefficients but the black endowments or characteristics. A further test is proposed that evaluates the economic efficiency of disparities in punishment. The test is restricted to measuring the recidivism effect of equality of treatment in punishment. The discrimination test and the efficiency test are illustrated using the U.S. Board of Parole data for 1972. Statistically significant racial disparities in punishment are uncovered and are found to be economically inefficient.     

中国21世纪刑事犯罪趋势预测

在人口大幅度增加的情况下 ,我国刑事犯罪的发展总趋势是刑事案件发案绝对数和犯罪率上升。国家的政治形势和经济状况是决定刑事犯罪走向的主导因素 ,而文化、道德、人口、防控、打击等各种因素也对其具有综合影响 ,预测2 1世纪刑事犯罪发展趋势为近期稳中有升 ,中长期增势减缓 ,升降交替     

An Interactional Perspective of Intimate Partner Violence: An In-depth Semi-structured Interview of a Representative Sample of Help-seeking Women

This article reports a study of women victimized by intimate partner violence (IPV). We describe three interactional aspects of IPV: (1) responses and conduct before, during, and after IPV episodes, (2) impact of alcohol and drug intoxication, and (3) Predictors of risk for IPV victimization in more than one partnership. A representative sample of 157 help-seeking women, recruited from family counseling offices, the police and shelters, were interviewed about physical, psychological and sexual IPV. The nature and characteristics of the IPV interactions were complex and heterogeneous. There were significant interactional differences between the IPV categories concerning the women’s responses and conduct before, during and after the IPV. The impact of alcohol and drug intoxication was relatively small on the occurrence of IPV. About 75% reported that neither the perpetrator nor the female victim had consumed alcohol or drugs before the index IPV exposure. Only 23% of the women had experienced IPV by previous partners. Women who had been subjected to sexual abuse in their family of origin were at almost 25 times increased risk of IPV victimization in more than one partnership. Childhood exposure to physical IPV between parents increased the risk of IPV victimization in more than one partnership significantly more than if the woman had been subject to childhood physical victimization.     

Orogen: Advanced relationship predictions for genetic genealogy

Orogen advances the science of relationship prediction by using Ped-sim, which improves upon previous models by incorporating crossover interference and sex-specific genetic maps. The Orogen tool provides accurate relationship predictions for a wide range of relationship types. It properly differentiates between close relatives at 23andMe, which is a newly available functionality for standalone tools. It provides new granularity of close relationships by showing the differences between paternal and maternal sides and in-group relationship types.     

Bet Out the Vote: Prediction Markets as a Tool to Promote Undergraduate Political Engagement

ABSTRACT

Over the course of three semesters spanning the 2016 primary and general elections, we conducted a series of quasi-experiments to evaluate the effects of prediction markets on undergraduate interest in the political process. We gave several classes in our institution’s core American politics course the opportunity to collectively invest in election-related markets on PredictIt.org, and over two-thirds of our students reported that the exercise stimulated their interest in the elections and political process. Roughly half also reported reading more news articles because of their participation in the market. While our treatment group did not demonstrate statistically-significant improvement in tangential political awareness, knowledge, or engagement, our findings do challenge previous conclusions that prediction markets have limited capacity to motivate students in an introductory learning context.     

A Comparative Test of Clinical Judgment Versus Actuarial Prediction of Future Violence

This study tested how graduate level psychology graduate students (n = 20) using the Adapted Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (Adapted VRAG) would do relative to practicing psychologists/psychiatrists (n = 16) using clinical judgment when predicting violence in 10 narratives from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment study (Monahan et al., The MacArthur violence risk assessment study. . Retrieved 10 Oct 2005). Results indicated that the practicing psychologists/psychiatrists made significantly more correct predictions than the master’s level students. The professional group demonstrated sensitivity levels of 77.7% and specificity of 96.3%. For the use of the adapted VRAG method by the graduate student group, specificity levels were modest at 54.0%. Sensitivity levels, however, were lower than earlier demonstrated levels at 58.0%. These findings are at variance with earlier reports comparing clinical and actuarial methods. The results may reflect the short amount of time the master’s level students were trained using the Adapted VRAG as well as the small number of participants in this study. Additional research comparing other professions is recommended, as well as examining if experience in the forensics field would affect one’s ability to predict violence.     

“先知”之惑——犯罪预测局限性研究

犯罪规律的复杂性,犯罪预测主客体间的博弈,犯罪现象的不确定性以及"测不准",导致了犯罪预测的一系列局限。基于犯罪预测的"社会反应",是一种博弈甚或试错的过程。无论是针对犯罪现象的整体预测,还是针对犯罪行为的个体预测,对预测结果的利用都需充分考虑预测误差乃至预测失误的可能。任何依据犯罪预测结果的社会反应,都应是可调整、可修正和可补救的,且不得以侵害社会,尤其是个人的正当权利为代价。即便犯罪预测能够做到准确无误,先发制人式的"预先处罚"也当严格禁止。