Forecasting Recidivism in Mentally Ill Offenders Released from Prison

Little research has focused on assessing the risk of mentally ill offenders (MIOs) released from state prisons. Here we report findings for 333 mentally ill offenders released from Washington State prisons. Logistic regression identified sets of variables that forecasted felony and violent reconviction as accurately as state-of-the-art risk assessment instruments. Sums of simple recoded versions of these variables predicted reoffense as well as complex logistic regression equations. Five of these 9 variables were found to be relative protective factors. Findings are discussed in terms of the value of stock correctional variables in forecasting risk, the need to base actuarial risk assessments on local data, the importance of protective factors in assessing MIO risk, and the need for dynamic, situational, and clinical variables that can further sharpen predictive accuracy of emergent risk in the community.     

灰色系统理论在犯罪动态预测中的应用

犯罪动态预测,是指采用定量分析方法,依据时间数列资料的自身规律对某些现象未来发展的趋向、水平和程度进行的一种计量和推测。影响犯罪的变量错综复杂,因此反映治安状况的发案数经常上下波动。运用灰色系统理论分析、预测犯罪动态发展变化规律,对科学决策、优化警力部署,实现对犯罪的精准打击都有着极其重大的意义。     

试论新时期警察公共关系

警察公共关系是现代公共关系的衍生物。警察公共关系能有效地提高公安机关管理效能，树立公安机关的良好形象，实现警民相互沟通，促进公安工作积极开展。     

Research on Parental Sensitivity, Trust, Intimacy and Adult Romantic Attachment as Predictors for Sexual Delinquency

Some important authors in the field of sexual delinquency stress the importance of inadequate attachment in the aetiology of sexual abusive behaviour. This contribution reports on parental sensitivity, trust, intimacy and adult romantic attachment in a group of sexual offenders (exhibitionists, child molesters and child rapists) and a matched normal control group. Based on the analyses, it appears that parental sensitivity, trust, intimacy and adult romantic attachment significantly differentiate between sexual delinquents and the control group. There is no significant relationship between the different categories of sexual offenders, except for the variable adult romantic attachment. Furthermore, it was found that parental sensitivity, trust and the adult romantic attachment style contribute independently to the explanation of sexual delinquent behaviour. The results tend to be important for the prevention and the treatment of sexual delinquent behaviour.     

Three-Dimensional Prediction of the Nose for Facial Approximation in a Thai Population

Most of the previous studies about nose prediction were concentrated only some landmarks of the nose. This study aimed to generate prediction equations for ten landmarks of the nose in the midline and alar regions for forensic facial approximation. The six midline landmarks were the sellion, nasion–pronasale posterior, nasion–pronasale anterior, pronasale, nasal drop, and subnasale. The four landmarks of the alar region were the alare, superior alar groove, posterior alar groove, and inferior alar groove. We used the skull landmarks in the nasal, zygomatic, and maxillary bone to predict the landmarks of the nose. Cone-beam computed tomography scans of 108 Thai subjects with normal BMI and age ranging from 21.0 to 50.9 years were obtained in a sitting position. The data were converted into three-dimensional (3-D) images of the skull and face. The Cartesian coordinates of the landmarks of the skull and nose were used to formulate the multiple regression equations. The formulated equations were tested in 24 new subjects. The mean differences in the predicted midline landmarks varied between −0.4 mm and 0.5 mm, whereas those for bilateral landmarks varied between −1.0 mm and 1.4 mm. In conclusion, the prediction equations formulated here will be beneficial for facial approximation of the nose in a Thai population.     

The Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI): Treatment Scales and Interpersonal Characteristics in a Sample of Men Charged with or Convicted of a Sexual Offense*

An individual's interpersonal features are pertinent to treatment within clinical populations. The Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI) contains two scales that assess the interpersonal features of warmth (WRM) and dominance (DOM), as well as two additional measures to assess to treatment prediction, process, and rejection (RXR; TPI). The current study examined associations between these PAI scales in a sample of 92 men who underwent comprehensive evaluations of sexual behavior after being charged with or convicted of a sexual offense. Analyses indicated that RXR was positively associated with WRM and DOM, TPI was negatively associated with WRM, and the two interpersonal scales of WRM and DOM were positively correlated with each other. A significant inverse relationship was found between the two treatment scales RXR and TPI indicating that motivation for treatment may have a limited relationship with the treatment process. WRM significantly predicted scores on the TPI, and both WRM and DOM predicted individual scores on RXR. Higher scores on positive impression management (PIM) were predictive of lower TPI and higher RXR, as individuals with higher stakes cases may score higher on PIM and underreport obstacles within treatment or be unwilling to accept the need for treatment. Overall, findings suggest that interpersonal characteristics identified by the PAI scales may be advantageous in approaching treatment within this population.     

俄罗斯经济快速增长的因素分析及2008年预测

2006年俄罗斯经济保持稳定增长态势。2007年俄罗斯的经济形势总体上可以概括为:经济继续稳定增长,增速进一步提高。由于宏观经济环境整体性得到改善,经济增长的内需导向型发展进一步加强,国内经济的基本因素在经济增长中起主导作用,这是俄多年来改革和调整措施逐步生效的结果。为转变增长方式,政府在经济生活中的作用继续增强。受能源供给增长乏力的限制,2007年俄罗斯出口增幅趋缓的趋势不会改变,进口增速远远高于出口增速成为2007年的显著特征。但国际高油价的利益驱动仍会使俄罗斯不断增加石油生产和出口,同时"黑色金子"也是推进俄内需作用扩张的重要基础。值得关注的是金融对经济增长的拉动作用开始显现。我们乐观地认为,2008年俄罗斯继续保持稳定的增长势头。     

基于灰色分析的群体性事件情报预警

灰色区间预测是一种基于灰色系统理论的预测方法,被广泛应用于军事、经济等社会科学领域。群体性事件是一个内容复杂、信息繁冗的灰色系统,系统中含有很多无法预知的黑色数据,这些未知信息的存在对正常的数据分析产生着负面的影响。灰色预测模型的引入恰好可以解决这一问题,对于群体性事件的情报预警工作具有重要的实践意义。     

2003年俄罗斯经济预测

自1999年至今,俄罗斯经济已连续4年增长。2003年俄经济将继续增长,但增幅不会太大,GDP增长率可预测为3.5％-4.5％。这样预测的理由是,占主导地位的积极因素将决定会继续增长,依然存在的消极因素将决定增速不会太快。为了使俄经济继续保持稳定增长,俄政府将针对目前存在的问题采取一系列调整措施。     

中国汉族女性腰椎的身高推断

测量中国汉族女性腰椎,建立腰椎推断身高的方法。按人体骨骼测量方法,对第一至第五腰椎的10项指标进行测量,并将各腰椎的测量数据与身高进行相关分析,建立中国汉族女性腰椎推断身高的回归方程。获得的推断身高的5个回归方程,其相关系数(r)和标准差(s)分别为 r_1=0.751,s=45.0171;r_2=0.698,s=48.2804;r_3=0.758,s=43.3508;r_4=0.497,s=56.0890;r_5=0.606,s=53.3158。本研究建立的方法误差小,可以用于中国汉族女性腰椎的身高推断。