Mass grave localization prediction with geographical information systems in Guatemala and future impacts

Conducting physical searches for mass grave locations based on anecdotal evidence is a time-consuming and resource-intensive endeavor in circumstances that often pose a threat to personal safety. The development of tools and procedures to speed such searches can greatly reduce the risk involved, increase the number of individuals whose remains are recovered and identified, and more importantly, reunite these remains with their loved ones to provide them with a proper burial. Geographic information systems (GIS) software, which can analyze and manipulate the spatial characteristics of known mass grave data, represents a powerful tool that can be used to predict new mass grave locations and increase the speed and efficiency with which they are investigated. Using the open source QGIS project, existing mass grave locations in Guatemala were analyzed based on their distance from and change in elevation relative to roads, streets, waterways, points of interest, and possible villages/towns. Statistical and geostatistical analyses performed to detect relationships among the variables resulted in patterns that warrant further study and can be used to further narrow areas of investigation.     

LIFE‐COURSE DESISTERS? TRAJECTORIES OF CRIME AMONG DELINQUENT BOYS FOLLOWED TO AGE 70*

Linking recently collected data to form what is arguably the longest longitudinal study of crime to date, this paper examines trajectories of offending over the life course of delinquent boys followed from ages 7 to 70. We assess whether there is a distinct offender group whose rates of crime remain stable with increasing age, and whether individual differences, childhood characteristics, and family background can foretell long‐term trajectories of offending. On both counts, our results come back negative. Crime declines with age sooner or later for all offender groups, whether identified prospectively according to a multitude of childhood and adolescent risk factors, or retrospectively based on latent‐class models of trajectories. We conclude that desistance processes are at work even among active offenders and predicted life‐course persisters, and that childhood prognoses account poorly for long‐term trajectories of offending.     

A Metric Comparison of Predictive Hot Spot Techniques and RTM

There are numerous hot spot mapping techniques that can be used in research and in practice for predicting future crime locations. Due to differences in the varying techniques, metrics were developed to compare the accuracy and precision of these techniques. The predictive accuracy index (PAI) and recapture rate index (RRI) were used to assess six different hot spot techniques. Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Crime, Nearest Neighbor Hierarchical, Kernel Density Estimation, and Risk Terrain Modeling were the general techniques compared in relation to their PAI and RRI values for short-term and long-term prediction of robberies. The results of the study were discussed with an emphasis on the utility of using multiple techniques jointly for analysis.     

The differential predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory: the role of gender

Most criminogenic risk assessments are developed and empirically validated on samples of boys or samples comprised of mostly boys, and subsequently applied to girls. Using a sample of male (n = 1,267) and female (n = 453) probationers, the purpose of the current study was to examine the potentially differential performance of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) and the instrument’s eight domains for female juvenile offenders. Findings revealed gender differences in the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI in which girls scored significantly higher on the risk assessment, but recidivated at significantly lower rates than boys two years following the administration of the assessment. The predictive validity of the instrument was impacted by these gender differences in which the YLS/CMI total score was a better predictor of recidivism for boys (area under the curve (AUC) = .623) than girls (AUC = .565). The only subscales that significantly predicted recidivism for girls were the family (AUC = .607) and personality (AUC = .572) domains, whereas all of the subscales significantly predicted recidivism for boys. Directions for future research as well as gender-responsive assessment, programming, and policy implications are discussed.     

基于Leslie方程预测的江苏省人口老龄化特征分析

人口老龄化已成为21世纪江苏省面临的巨大挑战。本文基于2005年1%人口抽样调查以及第五次人口普查等数据资料,在对总和生育率预测设定的基础上,运用Leslie矩阵方程对分年龄人口进行预测,进而得到2010—2050年江苏省65岁及以上人口数量以及占总人口比例、80岁及以上人口数量以及占总人口比例等人口老龄化有关指标预测值,藉此剖析了江苏省人口老龄化水平高、速度快、高龄化现象严重、未来人口老龄化阶段性明显等特征。     

现实主义法学的批判与建构

法律形式主义曾是美国法学的正统,现实主义法学则从概念、逻辑、规则等多个角度对法律形式主义进行了批判,并以预测模式为中心,提出了个殊主义、目的性司法和对司法过程进行经验主义探究等改革主张,对美国法理学的未来走向影响深远。     

From Identity Verification to Behavior Prediction: Ethical Implications of Second Generation Biometrics

In this article, we will compare ethical issues raised by first and second generation biometrics. First generation biometrics use characteristics readily visible to the naked eye to ensure that the person identified is the person he claims to be, whereas second generation biometrics focus on behavioral patterns with the aim of predicting suspicious behavior or hostile intentions. While the collection of biometric features for identification is visible to the person involved, capturing biometric features from a distance may go unnoticed. Our study of a range of U.S. and European projects of second generation biometrics, particularly of Future Attribute Screening Technology and Automatic Detection of Abnormal Behaviour and Threats in crowded Spaces, shows that if data subjects are not aware of the processing of their data, and if behavioral patterns are interpreted without any knowledge of the subject's will and motives, there are risks of discrimination and stigmatization. Thus, second generation biometrics raise some new ethical concerns besides issues of integrity, privacy, and data protection and further underscore the importance of the principle of informed consent in order to maintain public trust.     

北京市排水情况及预测

城市排水是城市基础建设重要项目之一。结合北京的污水、污泥及污染物排放量的现状,预测2000年城市污水、污泥及污染量,就此问题提出了建议。