中国经济的调整和思路转变——2013年第2季度宏观经济分析

今年上半年GDP增长7.6%（第2季度为7.5%）,工业增加值增长9.3%,CPI上涨2.4%（6月份上涨2.7%）,延续了稳中趋降的走势。这是好事,它为经济调整转型、减速换档腾出了空间。在流动性总量宽裕的情况下发生＂钱荒＂,根源在于银行资产负债期限错配和空转,央行＂不宽松,不放水＂的举措得当,有利于用短期市场波动来换取金融和经济的长期稳定发展。环境危机已经迫在眉睫,直接危及人们的生存,需要改变思路,使环境保护优于和重于经济发展。     

Stature estimation of 3-10-year-old children from long bone lengths

Estimation of stature in adult forensic cases with available long bones of the limbs is routine, but such estimation is less common in subadult cases. Long bones from subadult cases are often used to estimate age, but in some instances stature may be helpful or even critical for identification. Few published regression equations exist for consultation in such cases. Data from the longitudinal growth study conducted by the Child Research Council in Denver in the mid-1900s are utilized to produce dual-sex and single-sex regression equations for the six long bones of the limbs (humerus, radius, ulna, femur, tibia, and fibula) and for the combined femur+tibia length. All measurements are from radiographs and are of diaphyseal length. Examples show that similar results can be obtained using a two-step process of "ballpark" estimation from published tables of the Denver data, but these new regressions allow a one-step standard error estimate for the means. Regressions are further compared with those previously published by Finnish researchers, which are generally broadly comparable. More routine stature estimation in subadult cases is encouraged both as an aid to possible identification and as a test of the available regression equations.     

仁的境界与善的理念——孔子与柏拉图文艺教化观之比较

孔子和柏拉图都非常重视文艺的教化作用，他们都认为文艺的教化作用在于在陶冶性情和哺育心智。他们的文艺教化观都凸现一种强烈的功利主义色彩。然而当我们仔细研究两者的文艺教化观时，我们却能发现两者教化观的最终目标却有着极大的差别。孔子力图通过文艺的教化作用，实现人们对“仁”的迫近，使个体达到“仁”的境界；而柏拉图则希望通过文艺的教化作用，开启人的理性，使个体能充分认识到“善”的理念。     

提升当前“公安战力”的十个优先方面——山西省市县公安领导干部第七期培训班讲纲

有效超前的＂社会稳定风险预见＂、真正的＂制网权＂、＂高强度反击性＂侦破打击力、普遍密实的＂三防滤网＂、一线社会矛盾有效消解、常备化应急警力、最先最准情报优势、警务科技的必要自主、＂强势软警力＂等,是形成高水平＂公安战力＂的重要方面。     

当前毒品犯罪的分析及其对策

当前毒品犯罪形势日益严峻,以四川省广安市为例,全市吸毒人员年耗资保守估计可能有数亿元,涉毒犯罪严重引起防治成本增加,毒品犯罪问题已成为影响广安社会稳定和制约经济发展的一大祸患。深入调查分析广安市毒品犯罪现状、特点及原因,预测其未来趋势,提出相应的对策,对于有效防治毒品犯罪具有重要意义。     

根据人体胸耻线长和颈臀线长推断身高的研究

目的探讨胸耻线长和颈臀线长与身高的关系。方法随机抽查400例鄂西地区成年男女,测量每个人的胸耻线长和颈臀线长及身高,用SAS软件系统进行多元线性回归分析。结果建立了8项不同性别、不同年龄段推断身高的二元线性回归方程。18-40岁年龄段内人体胸耻线长和颈臀线长与身高的相关性好,根据人体胸耻线长和颈臀线长推断身高准确率高。41岁以上年龄段内人体胸耻线长和颈臀线长与身高的相关性稍差,其推断身高的回归方程慎用。结论该方法可用于推断成年人身高。     

SNPs在个体识别与表型预测中的研究进展

单核苷酸多态性（single nucleotide polymorphism,SNP）作为第三代遗传标记,具有分布广泛、突变率低、遗传稳定及易于自动化高通量快速检测分析的特点。同时,因其扩增片段长度短、不存在复制滑动,所以利于腐败降解、痕量检材的检测。随着研究的深入,SNPs在法医学领域受到了广泛重视,与表型（ABO血型、色素沉积及颅面形态）相关的SNPs有望用于预测嫌疑人的基本特征,为案件侦破提供新的思路。本文对近年来SNPs在个体识别和表型预测的研究进行总结,介绍该领域的研究进展,为法医学工作者提供参考。     

Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the incremental validity of changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony over 30 consecutive days following parole, for predicting time to recidivism during the following year. Before release, the participants completed self-report assessment of some stable risk factors – impulsiveness and history of problematic substance use – as well as an assessment of symptoms of anxiety experienced during the weeks prior to release. Analysis of the baseline assessments showed that impulsiveness and a history of problematic substance use, but not pre-release symptoms of anxiety, were associated with recidivism during the parole year. Growth modelling using a linear mixed model was used to assess whether inmates on parole showed changes in acute dynamic risk factors during the first month following release. Individual growth model slopes and intercept were then extracted and used as covariates in a series of Cox regression analyses to test whether changes in acute dynamic risk factors could provide incremental predictive validity beyond baseline stable risk factors. Changes in five dynamic risk factors were associated with an increased risk of recidivism, of which daily drug use and daily summary score showed incremental predictive improvement beyond impulsiveness and history of problematic drug use.     

The ForAPP: Forensic Ancestry Prediction Pipeline for the interpretation of ancestry informative markers

Interpretation of ancestry informative markers (AIMs) in a forensic case can be time-consuming as different tools are used that need to be initiated separately. We develop the ForAPP; an open-source pipeline (running offline) that initiates multiple ancestry prediction analyses and summarizes results in an interactive interface for interpretation of autosomal ancestry-informative markers.     

鸡Toll样受体3胞外区片段的克隆表达及多克隆抗体的制备

以笔者所在课题组扩增测序的广西三黄鸡Toll样受体3(TLR3)基因为基础,采用降落PCR法从鸡外周血淋巴细胞中扩增其胞外功能区片段chTLR3-LRR,并构建该片段的原核表达重组质粒,通过优化蛋白表达条件,用获得的融合蛋白免疫BALB/c小鼠制备多克隆抗体,通过Western-blot鉴定多克隆抗体的特异性。结果显示,该片段长度为834bp,与预测的片段大小、碱基序列相符;构建的原核表达重组质粒pET-chTLR3-LRR经IPTG诱导后,表达出预期的30ku的重组蛋白,所获得的鼠抗鸡TLR3多克隆抗体能够与经传染性法氏囊炎病毒(IBDV)刺激后的鸡胚成纤维细胞的TLR3蛋白发生特异性免疫反应。表明,所选择的区域片段具有很好的免疫原性,制备的鼠抗鸡TLR3多抗具有良好的特异性,这为进一步研究鸡TLR3的功能提供了重要材料。