基于DNA预测人类可见外表特征的综述

本文介绍了基于DNA预测人类可见外表特征的法医学动机及筛选预测性DNA标记的科学挑战,讨论了目前认为很有应用前景的研究结果,比如现在科学水平只能达到通过高度关联的DNA标记准确预测性别、红色头发颜色、蓝色和棕色虹膜颜色。同时也讨论了现在看来不太有前景的应用,比如成年人的身高、人类面部特征等,为我国法医工作者今后进行相关研究提供一些参考。     

Prediction of eye color from genetic data using Bayesian approach

Prediction of visible traits from genetic data in certain forensic cases may provide important information that can speed up the process of investigation. Research that has been conducted on the genetics of pigmentation has revealed polymorphisms that explain a significant proportion of the variation observed in human iris color. Here, on the basis of genetic data for the six most relevant eye color predictors, two alternative Bayesian network model variants were developed and evaluated for their accuracy in prediction of eye color. The first model assumed eye color to be categorized into blue, brown, green, and hazel, while the second variant assumed a simplified classification with two states: light and dark. It was found that particularly high accuracy was obtained for the second model, and this proved that reliable differentiation between light and dark irises is possible based on analysis of six single nucleotide polymorphisms and a Bayesian procedure of evidence interpretation.     

Red-teaming the panopticon* (mobilising adaptive change in secure and forensic settings)

In England and Wales, secure and forensic psychiatric institutions provide a high-cost, low-volume service that imposes significant restrictions upon detainees. Patients may be detained under the Mental Health Act in such settings for several years or even life, as they are deemed to present a significant risk to themselves or the public. Patients under s37/41 require the Home Office to approve any increase in their freedom. Best practice requires reoffending risk to be assessed before a patient is discharged. Evaluation of risk is an inexact actuarial science operating in a political arena, and research has indicated risk assessment tools have little positive predictive validity. There is concern amongst the wider psychiatric and judicial communities about the ethics of current practice. We examine these issues and consider means of improving risk assessment through red-teaming, increased collaboration between clinician and patient and a paradigm shift towards greater emphasis on patient self-agency.     

Relative improvement over chance (RIOC) and phi as measures of predictive efficiency and strength of association in 2×2 tables

In a 2×2 table, phi measures the strength of the relationship and relative improvement over chance (RIOC) measures the predictive efficiency. A simplified formula for RIOC is derived. From the linkage between RIOC and the adjusted standardized residual, the variance of RIOC is calculated, thereby allowing its statistical significance to be tested. A disadvantage of phi is that its maximum value can be less than 1. A corrected phi correlation, obtained by dividing phi by the maximum possible phi, is shown to be mathematically identical to RIOC. Hence, there is a linkage between the percentage of correct predictions and the percentage of variance explained. RIOC is unchanged even when the social costs and benefits of the different outcomes are differentially weighted. RIOC is also mathematically identical to a corrected kappa calculated in a similar fashion to the corrected phi. Therefore, RIQC has distinct advantages over phi and kappa.     

Political Science and Prediction: What's Next for U.S. Climate Change Policy?

This article analyzes how U.S. climate change politics and policy making are changing in the public, private and civil society sectors, and how such changes are likely to influence U.S. federal policies. It outlines the current status of U.S. climate change action and explores four overlapping pathways of policy change: (1) the strategic demonstration of the feasibility of climate change action; (2) the creation and expansion of markets; (3) policy diffusion and learning; and (4) the creation and promulgation of norms about the need for more aggressive climate change action. These four pathways seek to fruitfully draw from rationalist and constructivist approaches to policy analysis, without collapsing or confusing the different logics. Building on this analysis, it predicts that future federal U.S. climate policy will include six major components: (1) A national cap on GHG emissions; (2) A national market based cap‐and‐trade GHG emissions trading scheme; (3) Mandatory renewable energy portfolio standards; (4) Increased national product standards for energy efficiency; (5) Increased vehicle fleet energy efficiency standards; and (6) Increased federal incentives for research and development on energy efficiency issues and renewable energy development. In addition, expanding federal climate policy may bring about significant changes in U.S. foreign policy as U.S. international re‐engagement on climate change is likely to occur only after the development of more significant federal policy.     

Validation of the New Interpretation of Gerasimov's Nasal Projection Method for Forensic Facial Approximation Using CT Data,

The most common method to predict nasal projection for forensic facial approximation is Gerasimov's two‐tangent method. Ullrich H, Stephan CN (J Forensic Sci, 2011; 56: 470) argued that the method has not being properly implemented and a revised interpretation was proposed. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of both versions using a sample of 66 postmortem cranial CT data. The true nasal tip was defined using pronasale and nasal spine line, as it was not originally specified by Gerasimov. The original guidelines were found to be highly inaccurate with the position of the nasal tip being overestimated by c. 2 cm. Despite the revised interpretation consistently resulting in smaller distance from true nasal tip, the method was not statistically accurate (p > 0.05) in positioning the tip of the nose (absolute distance >5 mm). These results support that Gerasimov's method was not properly performed, and Ullrich H, Stephan CN (J Forensic Sci, 2011; 56: 470) interpretation should be used instead.     

警察心理危机及其预警指标体系构建研究

心理危机预警是警察心理危机管理体系的重要一环。遵循灵敏性、综合性、系统性、可预见性和实践性等原则,从危机个体、家庭、机关和社会等角度,探索性地构建科学合理的警察心理危机预警指标体系,可为缓解和减少警察心理危机提供一种科学有效的预警和管理方法。     

失业现状对辽宁社会稳定的影响及预测

随着经济体制改革的不断深化,严峻的失业形势已成为困扰经济体制改革和社会稳定的主要社会问题之一。本文通过调查对辽宁经济发展现状及未来发展趋势进行了研究,阐明了失业人口对经济发展和社会稳定的影响,并对失业人口犯罪问题提出了科学的预测,进而为有效地控制社会稳定,打击失业人口犯罪提供了依据。     

Distribution of Chemical Phenotypes (Chemotypes) in European Agricultural Hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) Cultivars

In Europe, more than 50 approved cultivars of fiber hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) are in agricultural production. Their content of psychoactive tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is legally restricted to <0.2% (%w/w in the dry, mature inflorescences). Cannabis strains with much higher THC contents are also grown, illegally or under license for drug production. Differentiation between these two groups relies on biochemical quantification of cannabinoid contents in mature floral material. For nonflowering material or tissue devoid of cannabinoids, the genetic prediction of the chemical phenotype (chemotype) provides a suitable method of distinction. Three discrete chemotypes, depending on the ratio of THC and the noneuphoric cannabidiol (CBD), can be distinguished: a “THC-predominant” type, a “CBD-predominant” type, and an intermediate chemotype. We present a systematic genetic prediction of chemotypes of 62 agricultural hemp cultivars grown in Europe. The survey reveals the presence of up to 35% B_T allele-carrying individuals (representing either a THC-predominant or an intermediate chemotype) in some cultivars—which is unexpected considering the legal THC limit of 0.2% THC. The fact that 100% of the seized drug-type seeds in this study revealed at least one B_T allele, reflects that plant breeding efforts have resulted in a fixation of the B_T allele in recreational Cannabis. To guarantee a sincere forensic application based on a genetic chemotype prediction, we recommend not to classify material of unknown origin if the samples size is below nine genetically independent individuals.     

Methylation-Based Age Prediction Using Pyrosequencing Platform from Seminal Stains in Han Chinese Males

Various methods have been performed to predict an unknown individual's age from biological traces in forensic investigations. A considerably accurate age prediction for the semen donor can help narrow down the search in a sexual assault case. The aim of this study was to develop an assay for age prediction from seminal stains in Han Chinese males. We built a sperm-specific linear regression model using bisulfite pyrosequencing. Validations were conducted with a Mean Absolute Deviation from the chronological age (MAD) of 4.219 years in liquid semen, 4.158 years in fresh seminal stains, 4.393 years in aged seminal stains, and 3.880 years in mixed stains, respectively. Furthermore, our strategy enables accurate age prediction using a forensic casework sample. The strategy indicated that we produced an accurate and reliable age prediction tool for the semen donors in Han Chinese males for forensic purposes.