The Dynamic Prediction of Criminal Recidivism: A Three-wave Prospective Study

A three-wave, prospective panel design was used to assess the extent to which static and dynamic risk factors could predict criminal recidivism in a sample of 136 adult male offenders released from Canadian federal prisons. Static measures were assessed only once, prior to release while dynamic measures were assessed on three separate occasions: pre-release, 1 month, and 3 months post-release. Recidivism was coded during an average of 10.2-month follow-up period (SD = 19.2). A series of Cox regression survival analyses with time-dependent covariates and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to assess predictive validity. Although the combined static and time-dependent dynamic model (AUC = .89, CI = .81–.93) significantly (p < .01) outperformed the pure static model (AUC = .81, CI = .73–.87) the confidence intervals did overlap to some extent. Implications for dynamic risk assessment and management are discussed.

Cranial Nonmetric Variation and Estimating Ancestry*

Abstract: Historically, when predicting the ancestry of human skeletal remains, forensic anthropologists have not fully considered the variation within human populations, but instead have relied on a typological, experience‐based approach. Unfortunately, reliance on observer experience has produced a method that is as much an art as it is a science. This research focuses on the frequency distribution and inter‐trait correlations of 11 common morphoscopic traits to demonstrate that the experience‐based approach to ancestry prediction is indeed an art that is unscientific, because it is unreplicable, unreliable, and invalid. Ten of 11 traits examined had frequency distributions with significant differences (p < 0.001) between groups, but the range in variation of these traits far exceeds previous assumptions. Such within group variation clearly demonstrates that extreme trait expressions are not reliable for estimating ancestry through visual observation alone, but instead that these traits should be analyzed within a statistical framework.     

Using self-report inventories to assess recidivism risk among prisoners about to be released on parole supervision in Sweden

Prison release planning is rarely based on adequate assessment using evidence-based instruments. This study uses well-established self-reports for screening of problem severity and for predicting recidivism, measured as reconvictions during one-year following release, in prisoners about to be conditionally released on probation in Sweden between 2009 and 2010. One Hundred and six prisoners completed the following measures: Karolinska Scales of Personality, Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25, Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, Drug Use Disorders Identification Test. Results show frequent mental health and substance use problems and high scores on the KSP psychopathy factor. Anxiety and problematic drug use were the two most important factors associated with one-year recidivism. Prior to release, self-reports could be useful for screening of problem severity, and for predicting recidivism.     

柔嫩艾美耳球虫杨凌株TA4基因的克隆和原核表达

根据国外报道的序列设计1对引物,以纯化的柔嫩艾美耳球虫(E.tenella)杨凌(YL)株孢子化卵囊的总RNA为模板,用RT-PCR方法扩增出E.tenella YL株的TA4基因.序列分析表明,该序列全长741 bp,开放阅读框(ORF)为651 bp,共编码217个氨基酸,与E.tenella HT株、E.tenella BJ株和E.tenella ZJ株的TA4基因ORF序列同源性分别为99.8%、99.8%和99.27%.由此确定所获得的目的基因为E.tenella YL株TA4基因.利用生物信息学和分子生物学软件对TA4基因编码的蛋白进行结构预测,结果表明,该蛋白为一结构松散的球状蛋白.将TA4基因克隆到表达载体pET-32a中,构建重组质粒pET-TA4并在大肠杆菌BL21中进行表达,表达产物的SDS-PAGE分析结果表明,成功地表达了分子质量为41 ku的融合蛋白.     

Why did We Get the End of the Cold War Wrong?

In many important ways the history of modern international relations (IR) begins at the point when the international order collapses in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Indeed, the withering of communism in Central and Eastern Europe followed by the break–up of the USSR two years later, posed what many in the field saw then (and continue to regard now) as a series of problems to which the hitherto dominant paradigm in IR—realism—had no ready or easy answers. This article neither seeks to defend nor criticize realism. Rather it shifts the debate about the end of the cold war—and why most experts failed to anticipate it—away from the field of IR to the more specific study undertaken in the West of the Soviet system. It goes on to argue that the source of so much academic embarrassment may be better explained not through a rehearsal of realism's supposed flaws as an international theory, but rather through a detailed examination of the different ways that different writers understood, or more precisely failed to understand, the operation of the Soviet system itself. The conclusion reached is that few analysts could have predicted what happened between 1989 and 1991. In fact, as the article seeks to show, their often complicated and diverse theories about the USSR as the living alternative to market capitalism led most of them (with one or two notable exceptions) to the conclusion that whatever problems faced the Soviet Union as a power in the 1980s, the system as such was likely to endure.     

A New Robust Epigenetic Model for Forensic Age Prediction

Forensic DNA phenotyping refers to an emerging field of forensic sciences aimed at the prediction of externally visible characteristics of unknown sample donors directly from biological materials. The aging process significantly affects most of the above characteristics making the development of a reliable method of age prediction very important. Today, the so-called “epigenetic clocks” represent the most accurate models for age prediction. Since they are technically not achievable in a typical forensic laboratory, forensic DNA technology has triggered efforts toward the simplification of these models. The present study aimed to build an epigenetic clock using a set of methylation markers of five different genes in a sample of the Italian population of different ages covering the whole span of adult life. In a sample of 330 subjects, 42 selected markers were analyzed with a machine learning approach for building a prediction model for age prediction. A ridge linear regression model including eight of the proposed markers was identified as the best performing model across a plethora of candidates. This model was tested on an independent sample of 83 subjects providing a median error of 4.5 years. In the present study, an epigenetic model for age prediction was validated in a sample of the Italian population. However, its applicability to advanced ages still represents the main limitation in forensic caseworks.     

EA-YPredictor:基于Y-STR数据的家系特异性单倍群归属判别分析软件

目的Y染色体为男性所特有,其遗传标记蕴含着丰富的生物地理信息,故可溯源家系,在嫌疑人排查和追踪中发挥作用。Y-STR突变率较高,而Y-SNP突变率极低,几乎不会发生回复突变,所以后代男性群体携带祖先特有的Y-SNP。本研究期望通过现在我国Y库建设中通用的17个Y-STR的单倍型数据预测Y-SNP单倍群细支。方法基于前期观察,选取千人基因组计划III期中的513例东亚人群(中国及周边区域)作为基础数据集,在Java平台和Microsoft Excel软件框架下,以遗传距离计算和Y染色体进化树构建手段相联合研发Y-STR数据的家系特异性单倍群归属判别分析软件:EA-YPredictor。结果本研究揭示了15个单倍群大支下的核心单倍型。通过随机选取70个公开数据库样本,EA-YPredictor软件预测准确性达到92.8%(95%置信区间:[84.1%,97.6%])。结论在Y-SNP复合扩增检测尚无定论的情况下,本软件可基于二代测序样本对Y-STR数据库样本进行单倍群细支的准确预测,能适用于辅助家系单倍群判断。随着测序技术的不断换代和优化,更多高通量的Y-STR和Y-SNP数据补充将会使本软件进一步优化。此外,本软件对于Y数据库中Y-SNP遗传标记的筛查建库有一定指向作用。     

刑事司法视角下的国民预测可能性

作为刑法的精神内核,罪刑法定内含预测可能性原理,意图通过明文规定的犯罪与刑罚,克己守法的法官运用形式思维严格适用法律,使民众事先能够预测自己的行为性质,保障行动的自由.然而预测可能性原理实现前提的假设被证伪,刑法规范的模糊性与法律概念的类型化,使得法官适用法律时必然适当能动.同时,法官的法律思维与民众的日常思维存在较大...     

41-Plex SNP色素推断复合检测体系在中国人群中的适用性研究

目的 根据已知的HIrisPlex-S色素推断SNP复合检测体系,在中国人群中进行色素表型推断及体系的适用性研究.方法 基于SNaPshot平台,构建包含2个复合扩增检测体系的41重SNP色素特征推断体系41-Plex.使用来自中国7个不同地域人群的200个无关个体DNA样本进行体系的准确性测试.通过人工表型分类读取眼...     

关于加强警察公共关系建设 实现警民关系良性互动的实践与思考

警察公共关系建设能有效提高公安机关管理效能,树立公安机关的良好形象,实现警民相互沟通,促进公安工作积极开展.因此,我们必须致力于警察公共关系意识的培养和专业队伍的建设,切实提升相关能力,改进宣传的理念、方法和内容,加强公安宣传的影响力和覆盖面.