日本养老金危机与政党走势——以2003-2007年国会选举为视角

2003—2007年日本国会选举,在自民党与民主党两大保守政党的竞争态势下,养老金制度改革与危机成为影响日本政党走势的重要原因之一。一个深层次的问题是,政党支持结构已经由传统模式向业绩投票模式转换,可是,"中位投票者"偏好的政策构想,基本相同的养老金制度致使投票人无所适从;投票人希望候选人成为能确保投票人偏好的政策代理人,然而,5 000万份年金记录丢失,致使养老金危机转向政党危机。构筑让国民信赖的养老金制度是走出政党危机的路径。日本养老金危机对中国有重要借鉴意义。     

论东北经济的结构性危机

东北曾是新中国的工业基地和粮食基地。如今那些辉煌已成昔日黄花。东北经济正处在结构性危机之中 ,要迎接新曙光尚需时日 ,须用大手笔实现一系列的创新。最要紧的是认识东北的特殊区情 ,探索一条“中国先发地区”发展的新路。     

试论公安危机决策

当前公安危机决策中存在的凭经验决策、临危决断、按部就班决策、信息处理机制不健全等问题制约着公安危机的妥善处理。根据危机的发生、发展直到结束的规律,为妥善解决公安危机,需建立危机的防范机制、危机的信息发布机制、危机发生时的应对机制,危机结束后要认真总结经验教训。     

春秋时期的债务问题与政治危机

春秋时期是中国古代社会的重要转型期,经历了“高岸为谷,深谷为陵”的沧桑巨变。社会转型过程也就是财产与权力的再分配过程,债务问题即是研究这一转型过程的一个很好的切入点。春秋时期,债务问题更具普遍性,无论是官府借贷还是私人借贷都有了新发展,严重影响了国人的生产与生活,对各国的政局和社会治安产生了影响。     

Political Representation in Bailed-out Southern Europe: Greece and Portugal Compared

The emergence of the economic and financial crisis has already shown important electoral and political consequences in southern Europe. Drawing on the experience of two bailed-out countries, Greece and Portugal, we use original data collected before and after 2008 to examine how patterns of political representation have changed during this period. We argue that austerity measures have significantly affected the way MPs represent their electorates, namely in terms of policy congruence. In addition, the economic crisis has also deepened the legitimacy crisis in both countries. Finally, we find that the short-term impact of the crisis has had a greater impact on voters' attitudes than on those of their representatives.     

Can the Welfare State as We Know It Survive? A View from the Crisis-Ridden South European Periphery

South European countries have been hit hardest and longest by the post-2008 economic crisis. This has brought their welfare states under acute strain. Unmet need has sharply increased while significant welfare reforms and (more or less) deep cuts and changes in social spending have been prominent in the repertoire of the crisis management solutions implemented by the governments (under European Union constraints and the strict rescue-deal requirements for Greece and Portugal). This introduction briefly reviews reform trends prior to and during the crisis in order to highlight convergent and divergent paths among the four countries and outline the major questions addressed by the contributions to this volume.     

Representation and Austerity Politics: Attitudes of Greek Voters and Elites Compared

Drawing on surveys of voters and MPs in Greece, this article analyses elite–mass interaction on key policy (austerity, European integration, immigration) and ideological issues after the 2012 elections. We find that while for the government parties, New Democracy and PASOK, the level of congruence is quite high, MPs from opposition parties (SYRIZA, Golden Dawn) place themselves in more exposed positions in comparison with their voters. The observed substantial variation in the intensity and direction of congruence, across parties and issue preferences in Greece, reinforces the view that the dimensionality of political contestation is not reducible to a single ideological dimension.     

公共政策的缺失与当前世界性经济危机

以次贷危机为导火索、进而席卷全球的金融海啸,正方兴未艾,引发了世界性的经济危机,各国政府努力救市.媒体和学术界开始从各个角度分析危机的原因所在.列举出来的原因有:市场和公众投资信心降低、克林顿政府的房贷政策、在政府政策压力下从格林斯潘开始的长期的低利率低通胀政策、华尔街的贪婪等等.虽然这些都可以算是原因,但在它们的后面其实有着人们不愿探究的更深层次的原因,包括:多年来美国政府改革路线的失衡、现代资本主义金融体系包括市场经济本身的内生性制度缺陷、深藏于现代西方政治文化与社会治理结构中的脆弱因素、资本主义特质在现代技术条件下对社会提出的新挑战、缺失的公共利益文化等等.重点对后面的几个原因进行阐述和讨论,提请学术界对全球化条件下处于不同发展阶段的国家在自己的公共政策和政府治理改革问题上做更深层次的思考和探索.     

乡村文化建设与社会主义新农村建设——兼谈苏南地区乡村文化建设

社会主义新农村建设的最终目标不仅要求实现农村经济的快速、健康发展,更是要求实现乡村主体——农民的现代转型。在乡村主体的现代转型过程中,文化的作用至关重要。当下乡村文化存在制度、功能、内容危机等问题,而文化认同危机是其根本问题。乡村文化危机表明了乡村文化现代重建的必要性与紧迫性,也为乡村文化的现代重建指明了努力的方向。苏南乡村文化建设也可以将此分析作为制定建设规划的理论参考。     

当前国际形势及其发展趋势

在＂后金融危机时代＂,世界与地区秩序处于新旧交替之中,复杂性、不确定性与高风险性成为当今国际形势的阶段性主要特征。而发达国家经济困局严重拖累世界经济复苏进程,全球性社会政治抗争风潮迭起加剧各国治理难度,国际战略力量对比新变化催生大国＂竞合＂博弈,传统与非传统安全挑战同步增长恶化国际安全环境,亚太地缘战略格局复杂重组,这是当前国际形势的五大特征。展望2012年,世界经济复苏温和而曲折,＂大选年＂加剧国际政治经济敏感性,西方与新兴大国＂竞合＂关系更趋复杂,社会政治风潮可能向思想与意识形态领域扩散,亚太地缘战略格局重组磨合具有不确定性,各种不稳定因素相互交织、影响全球,国际形势动荡不定。