警务危机谈判的技巧——有关“要求与期限”的实用技巧研究

谈判是警方处置劫持人质等危机案事件的主要手段之一。在谈判过程中，劫持者往往会提出或大或小、或难或易、或政治或经济的各种要求，与此同时会设定完成要求的期限，并以劫持的人质安危作为筹码，据此同警方对峙。警方若不能很好地应对对象提出的“要求与期限”，就可能使危机升级，甚至导致人质被伤害的严重后果。因此，对危机谈判中“要求与期限”实用技巧的研究和把握，对提高危机谈判的水准和高效处置危机案事件有着现实的意义。     

The times make a hero: Street-level policy entrepreneurship in major crisis responses in China

Street-level bureaucrats are often grassroots officials, and they are regarded as passive practitioners of policy with no authority to change policy or innovate, while policy entrepreneurs are usually high-level officials. Based on observations of China's responses to two national crises, this study found that the times do make a hero. When acting as innovative frontline technocrats, major transboundary crisis practitioners, and management savvy operators within the top-down bureaucracy, street-level bureaucrats can become policy entrepreneurs. To innovate and drive policy change, street-level policy entrepreneurs will adopt innovative strategies. They will make efficient use of their expertise and discretion, integrate various resources, strive for attention from superiors, consolidate their achievements, and expand their influence.     

La crisis de la deuda soberana y la reforma del artículo 135 de la constitución española

The following piece of paper is a critical approach to the amendment of the Article 135 of the Spanish Constitution, by means of which the principle of balanced budget and the restricting of the public expenditure are constitutionalized. This work consists of four different paragraphs: the first one, in which a chronological approach to the debt crisis in the Eurozone and the reform of the Article 135 of the Constitution are carried out; the second one, where the new features that the current Article 135 contain are presented; the third one, in which the critical analysis of the 2011 constitutional reform is now developed (around tour fundamental axes: content, procedure, time and purpose and significance); and the fourth one resulting with a number of final considerations.     

关于索马里危机的地缘经济与政治思考——兼论罗佐夫分析索马里危机的独特视角

亚丁湾海盗问题似乎已经渐渐淡出人们的视野,然而索马里问题依然十分值得人们关注。里克·罗佐夫从地缘经济和地缘政治的角度探讨了索马里危机的性质,认为美国和北约为其军事目的和确保其全球能源主导地位而采取控制整个印度洋的计划与行动,才是索马里的真正危机。尽管罗佐夫对索马里危机的一些分析还不够到位,但他对国际社会的提醒却并不是多余的。解决索马里问题必须从根子上着手。中国必须正视国际霸权存在的现实,在努力提高自身软实力的同时也要十分重视硬实力的继续提升。     

“欧元乐园”的迷失与重建——兼论对东亚区域货币合作的启示

希腊主权债务危机引发的欧元危机是对欧洲区域经济与货币一体化的一次重大考验,深刻反映了欧洲经货联盟成立以来所出现的两大问题:成员国之间经济的不平衡发展以及联盟合作机制的缺陷。欧元危机给东亚区域货币与金融合作的启示是,在以欧盟货币合作为样板的同时,应着重加强区域内信息共享与政策合作,以清迈倡议(CMI)和清迈倡议多边机制(CMIM)为基础加快东亚货币合作机制建设,完善区域监管体系;同时加强区域内各国汇率合作和资本账户自由化,稳步推进区域金融市场一体化进程,逐步缩小各国之间汇率波动的幅度,以此推进东亚区域经济合作向纵深发展。     

Avoiding crisis contagion: Poland’s case

This paper examines the major reasons for limited crisis contagion to Poland in the period 2007–09. At this time Poland was the only European Union (EU) member that grew in the midst of the Great Recession and financial crisis. The following analysis focuses on domestic polices and economics structure which made this growth possible. Poland’s modest levels of private and public debt, low share of mortgages in bank assets, limited decline in real estate prices, and proactive policies by domestic and foreign banks substantially buffered Poland’s financial sector. At the same time, real economy was aided by a high share of domestic consumption as opposed to exports, a favorable labor market structure, and timely financial assistance from the EU, all that shielded it from major crisis contagion.     

民族地区突发事件与危机管理机制研究

近年来,我国民族地区突发事件的频发度与危害的严重性均呈上升趋势,已经明显阻碍了民族地区的经济发展乃至社会稳定。在对我国民族地区突发事件的表现形态、特征与产生原因等方面的特殊性进行深入分析的基础上,试图提出构建民族地区危机管理机制的基本思路。认为该机制的构建既需要发挥政府的主导作用,又不能单靠外援式或政府强制式推进,而应将民族传统文化与现代高科技相结合,发挥民族文化多样性优势,发掘和利用民间传统智慧,让民族地区的危机管理成为内源式的危机管理。     

基于网络媒介的突发性公共危机信息传播仿真和管理对策研究

危机信息的健康传播在突发性公共危机管理中至关重要。为了研究突发性公共危机信息在网络环境中传播的特征,本文以复杂适应系统理论为指导,利用多主体建模方法,基于Repast平台模拟突发性公共危机信息在网络媒介中的传播过程。通过模型仿真我们发现突发性公共危机在网络环境中传播的生命周期现象和群极化现象;并且分析比较了各主体属性在不同参数值下的演化结果,探寻危机信息传播的有效方法,为政府如何应对危机管理提供决策支持,以期有效控制突发性公共危机信息在网络环境的恶性传播。     

实现我国经济主动权的必要性与战略布局——关于应对当前国际金融危机的思考

自我国采取市场化道路和对外开放政策以来,总体经济发生了翻天覆地的变化,总量经济规模日益壮大,经济改革取得了世人瞩目的成绩.然而,我国高度的对外开放和对外依存度,也使我国的经济发展陷入某种被动,造成一些宏观调控的被动局面.当前国际金融危机爆发,以及对我国经济造成的严重冲击,使得如何取得经济主动权显得更加突出.分析我国经济被动的一些侧面与表现,认为一个崛起中的经济大国必须争取经济主动必要性诉求,并提出了为取得经济及经济政策主动权的思路和相关战略布局的具体措施.     

‘Social Investment’ or Back to ‘Familism’: The Impact of the Economic Crisis on Family and Care Policies in Italy and Spain

Family policies have traditionally been weak in Southern Europe. In the last two decades, however, and following a ‘catching up’ course, Spain has created new family programmes and expanded existing ones. Meanwhile, the picture for Italy during the years preceding the crisis is more of a ‘frozen landscape’. However, the diverging paths of the two countries in terms of policy reform in the years preceding the crisis do not place them in substantially different positions. The economic crisis and the austerity measures that followed have aggravated the weaknesses of family and care policies in both countries.