Swimming against the Tide: How Disaster Agencies Build Political Resilience

Despite the pressure on politicians to show leadership in times of disaster, many struggle with the extreme leadership challenges imposed by a calamity that is quickly consuming life and property. Drawing on data from elite interviews with senior personnel from disaster agencies in eight countries, we find that emergency managers want to engage with political actors well before a disaster strikes. This is critical to educate the political actor about disaster management, leadership, and communication, and to generate support for resources and funding. The challenge is to place disasters on the agenda of political actors ahead of all-consuming, day-to-day issues.     

全球金融危机下东亚货币金融合作的路径选择

当前的"美元体制"在今后相当长时期内具有可持续性.正是在布雷顿森林体制和"美元体制"下,东亚各经济体的工业化和经济发展取得了巨大成功,成为"美元体制"的主要受益者和支撑者,也自然成为全球金融危机的主要受害者.现阶段的东亚货币金融合作巴经取得了一定进展,但东亚各经济体尚不具备推进国际货币体系改革的能力;同时,东亚货币金融合作应改变应对危机的实用主义哲学,以促进区域经济的持续、稳定增长为目标进行更加长远的路径设计,在区域整体层面和局部层面两个层次上加快货币金融合作的深化发展.在此过程中,人民币国际化战略的实施将使中国在区域货币金融合作中占据较为有利的地位,但其能否成功一方面取决于中国经济结构能否进行顺利的调整,使中国成为能够替代美国的区域内最终产品市场的提供者,另一方面也取决于中日两国能否比较顺利地开展汇率政策的协调与合作.东亚地区复杂的历史、文化、政治和社会背景等因素,决定了该地区难以出现"一家独大"式的货币合作模式.因此,中日两目的协调与合作在很大程度上决定着东亚货币金融合作的未来.     

当代市场经济运行的信用经济本质剖析——美国"次贷"危机引发的经济学暨政策思考之一

美国"次贷"危机爆发深刻揭示了当代市场经济运行中的金融本质特征之一是高度发达的信用经济。负债运行是当代市场经济中微观主体的常态,是社会经济正常运转的必要前提与制约保障。信用经济本质上是债权债务经济,并具有正负"双重"效应。信用经济的核心功能是以时间交错、空间重组的方式极大限度地将现有的暂时闲置的社会资源动员起来,使原有的经济实体规模在本不可能的基础上得以扩张;但这种经济的运行一旦在某个环节出现断裂并引发环环相扣的整体信用关系功能性断裂时,就会引发整个社会经济的连锁反应,使其原来对社会经济的加速度推动作用反方向运行,并由此产生对社会经济的加速度的破坏张力。发挥信用经济正效应,抑制负效应,需要遵循信用经济运行的基本平衡公式,保障信用经济运行的基本约束条件,即债务人的受信在数量、质量、时间上与债权人的授信相平衡,并以此构建监管体系。     

日本对能源危机的应急管理——以第一次石油危机为例

日本面对战后第一次国家危机,先是组建应急管理机构,以此为基础,从行政号召、政府指导和法律管制等层面制定了诸多措施,并很快形成了具有"防火墙"作用的应急管理体系。该体系为调整危机状态下的国家权力、公民权利以及国家权力与公民权利之间的各种能源经济关系,充分发挥行政、法律对社会无序状态、紧急状态的防范和矫正功能起到了关键性的作用。在应急危机管理中,日本政府所发挥的6大能效,也为日本从无预防性的应急管理向未雨绸缪的预防管理转型提供了极为宝贵的心理储备、经验借鉴和制度遗产。     

欧美生物燃料战略与东南亚粮食贸易困境

近年来,国际粮食市场出现了剧烈的价格波动,主要粮食品种价格呈现出快速上涨的趋势.OECD和FAO的研究报告指出,导致全球粮食市场行情波动的主要原因是:(1)原油价格高涨引起的联动反应;(2)异常气候变化导致的粮食歉收;(3)生物燃料需求的增加;(4)谷物市场国际投机资金的流入等.其中,欧美的生物燃料发展战略是全球粮价上涨和引发粮食危机的重要诱因.本文通过对欧美生物燃料战略与东南亚粮食贸易的关联性的分析,揭示其对亚洲区域的影响.     

Risk, Gender, and Development in the 21st Century

Globalization creates wealth but also financial crises. Although these systemic risks are generated by all participants in the world economy, their costs are disproportionately borne by the poor, especially women, who live in developing nations, with irrevocable damage to their capabilities. Since current reform proposals do not address inequities in the distribution of the costs of financial crises, we suggest changes in the design, implementation, content, and funding of policies that could provide security to women during crises. We argue that our suggestions will not succeed without women's participation in the debate on the reform of international financial architecture.     

Avoiding crisis contagion: Poland’s case

This paper examines the major reasons for limited crisis contagion to Poland in the period 2007–09. At this time Poland was the only European Union (EU) member that grew in the midst of the Great Recession and financial crisis. The following analysis focuses on domestic polices and economics structure which made this growth possible. Poland’s modest levels of private and public debt, low share of mortgages in bank assets, limited decline in real estate prices, and proactive policies by domestic and foreign banks substantially buffered Poland’s financial sector. At the same time, real economy was aided by a high share of domestic consumption as opposed to exports, a favorable labor market structure, and timely financial assistance from the EU, all that shielded it from major crisis contagion.     

论警务危机谈判体系的构建

警务危机谈判在各类对峙案件处置过程中,能够建立起警方与高危人群之间对话的桥梁,缓和紧张局面,协助解决危机。警务谈判体系的构建包括对谈判原则的把握、谈判场景分类的确定,在此基础上,对不同的场景运用不同的工作方法,实施不同的工作内容,以达到有的放矢、精确处置的目的。     

危机决策，对我国政府决策系统的挑战及对策

新形势下,危机决策是衡量政府快速反应能力的核心指标,具有紧迫性、集中性、非常规性和高风险性,它对我国政府决策系统提出了严峻的挑战。提高危机决策水平,改进政府决策系统就必须:⑴树立科学的决策观;⑵优化决策支持系统;⑶改进决策系统的运行机制;⑷丰富决策方法论体系。     

Turning against the Union? The impact of the crisis on the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European Parliament elections

The 2014 European Parliament elections were held against the backdrop of the worst economic crisis in post-war Europe. The elections saw an unprecedented surge in support for Eurosceptic parties. This raises the question of whether the crisis, and the EU’s response to it, can explain the rise of Eurosceptic parties. Our analysis of the 2014 European Election Study demonstrates that the degree to which individuals were adversely affected by the crisis and their discontent with the EU’s handling of the crisis are major factors in explaining defection from mainstream pro-European to Eurosceptic parties in these elections. This suggests that far from being second-order national elections concerned only with domestic politics, European issues had a significant impact on vote choices.