Decision‐making during international crises: A reexamination

The purpose of this research note is to reexamine the methods and codings of crisis decision‐making processes performed by Herek, Janis, and Huth in 1987, and thereby to discuss the role of the case survey method as a means to build theory in the study of foreign policy. The research reported here uses a somewhat different measure of decision‐making process quality and a slightly expanded list of data sources than were used by Herek and his colleagues. It reevaluates a subset of the cases explored in the previous study. This research note largely confirms the analysis of crisis decision‐making processes presented in the previous study, though it notes and discusses some discrepancies. Furthermore, this reexamination seeks to contribute to our understanding of crisis decision‐making processes by using a different conceptualization of decision‐making process quality and thus a different coding procedure.     

扎实做好“三进”工作

用科学发展观教育武装当代大学生，提高他们思想政治素质，培养出政治合格的接班人，是高等院校肩负的义不容辞的重任。要采取措施，扎实做好科学发展观的“三进”工作。     

对知识分子政治问题的思考

知识分子政治问题事关全局。本文从知识分子阶级属性谈起。知识分子作为工人阶级一部分,基本的要求有两方面,一方面要使知识分子有与工人阶级平等的社会和政治地位,做到“政治上充分信任,工作上放手使用,生活上关心照顾。”这个方面我们取得的成效令人称道,当然还需要继续加强;另一方面,知识分子要增强工人阶级意识,坚持工人阶级立场,自觉担负起工人阶级历史使命和历史责任。这个方面虽然做了大量工作,有相当多成效,但还面临许多问题。本文列举了大量调查事实和实例加以分析,着重说明了在社会主义市场经济条件下,如何解决好知识分子思想政治倾向问题,理想信念问题,工人阶级意识问题等,是一个新课题、难题,忽视或解决不好后果严重。需要按照“三个代表”的理论加以研究和解决,对此本文作了初步分析。     

论江泽民创新思想

江泽民创新思想的形成经历了三个阶段,由自然科学领域到社会科学领域再到哲学领域,构建了创新思想体系,深化了对唯物史观的认识。"三个代表"重要思想是江泽民创新思想的集中体现和伟大成果。     

SELECTIVE INCAPACITATION,THREE STRIKES,AND THE PROBLEM OF AGING PRISON POPULATIONS: USING SIMULATION MODELING TO SEE THE FUTURE*

Research Summary: The growth of prison populations over the last three decades is a great source of concern for policy makers and observers. One mechanism by which this growth occurs is via sentencing reforms that extend length of stay for certain categories of offenders. This has the effect of aging prison populations, which is problematic for many reasons. Apart from the increased financial burdens entailed in caring for older prisoners, it is also important to consider the intent of reforms in evaluating them. Of late, sentencing reform has become increasingly focused on the selective incapacitation of dangerous offenders. Policies that have the effect of aging the prison population are problematic from this perspective due to the diminishing returns realized with respect to incapacitation as offenders age. Dynamic systems simulation analysis is employed to investigate the likely consequences of recent sentencing reforms that increase length of stay for some offenders. These analyses indicate that the effects of recent reforms may not be as dramatic as some observers have predicted, but they suggest that the consideration of alternatives to incarceration for elderly offenders is warranted from the standpoint of cost considerations as well as that of selective incapacitation. Policy Implications: The results indicate that California's Three Strikes law will not accelerate the rate of growth of the elderly prison population. However, even without increasing the proportional representation of elderly prisoners, the number of elderly prisoners is expected to grow substantially over the next three decades. These prisoners will strain criminal justice system resources while presenting little public safety threat. State criminal justice policy makers and their constituents should closely examine laws that impose very long stays without discretionary release, as these statutes may contribute to the production of elderly prisoners. This problem is particularly pronounced in Three Strikes and other habitual offender laws that use retrospective methods to identify habitual offenders. Additionally, the effects of reforms lengthening stay for some offenders must be considered in light of cumulative effects of sentencing reform resulting in changes to the demographic structure of the prison population overall. Dynamic systems simulation modeling is presented as a valuable policy‐making tool, as it allows the policy analyst to examine the potential impacts of laws in the absence of data suitable for conventional statistical analyses.     

"三个代表":马克思主义中国化的最新成果

江泽民同志“三个代表”思想是在科学分析国际、国内环境和党的地位所发生的重大变化的基础上适时提出的,符合马克思主义中国化的基本要求。“三个代表”思想是合乎时代发展趋势和中国实际需要的理论性创造,反映了马克思主义中国化的根本特质,蕴涵丰富的历史唯物主义与辩证法。“三个代表”思想是马克思主义中国化的最新成果,标志着马克思主义中国化一个新的历史性飞跃的起始。     

构建新世纪中国共产党执政战略

为了更好地贯彻江泽民同志“七一”讲话提出的深化对共产党执政规律认识的思想,中国共产党应构建新世纪执政战略。新世纪执政战略包括探索执政规律的出发点,确立执政指导思想,明确执政具体目标,更新执政理念,提高执政能力,丰富执政资源,转变执政方式,攻克执政难题,纯洁执政细胞,造就执政保证,优化执政环境和实现执政使命等。     

STRUCTURAL FACTORS AND BLACK INTERRACIAL HOMICIDE: A NEW EXAMINATION OF THE CAUSAL PROCESS*

This study evaluates the assumption that deprivation among African Americans and racial inequality lead to black interracial homicide due to racial conflict and antagonism. Using refined race‐adjusted Supplemental Homicide Report data, Uniform Crime Report data and census data, we test an alternative hypothesis that draws on the macrostructural opportunity theory to assess and more accurately specify the relationship between structural characteristics and black interracial homicide. We find that first, the relationship between economic factors and black interracial homicide can be explained in large part by high rates of financially motivated crime such as robbery, and second, that economic factors are associated with financially motivated but not expressive black interracial killings. Analyses of black intraracial killings are performed for comparison purposes. Collectively, the findings suggest that conflict‐based explanations rooted in racial antagonism and frustration aggression may be premature.     

坚持与时俱进 克服僵化思想学习“个代表”—重要思想几个问题的思考

“三个代表”重要思想是与时俱进的理论,与四项基本原则之间是彼此联系、相互贯通的统一关系。“两个先锋队”的提法是我们党一贯的思想,没有模糊党的工人阶级先锋队性质,更不意味着党要成为“全民党”。我们要正确理解吸收新的社会阶层中的优秀分子入党的含义及其与保持党的先进性的关系等问题。     

论WTO劳工标准之争与中国“劳动三权”制度的完善

尽管是否将贸易制裁与核心劳工标准的实施挂钩在WTO内存在激烈的争论,但将这两者挂钩可能是将来的发展趋势.因此重视核心劳工标准、尤其是"劳动三权"(自由结社权、罢工权和集体谈判权)具有非常重要的意义.与国际劳工组织制定的劳工标准相比,我国在"劳动三权"的立法上还存在不足,将来必然会对我国的对外贸易产生不良影响,也不利于我国人权的保障.因此,我们应修改<宪法>、<劳动法>、<工会法>和制定<罢工法>,对工会成立和解散的程序、组织体制、领导体制、会员资格、经费来源等进行相应改革,对集体谈判和集体合同制度进行完善,对工会和工人的罢工权给以明确肯定并对其权利的行使加以法律规范.