Time-of-voting decision and susceptibility to campaign effects

There is mounting evidence that election campaigns matter. There are also reasons to expect interpersonal heterogeneity in the susceptibility to campaign influence. Time-of-voting decision has been suggested as a key mediating variable for campaign effects. However, there is no persuasive empirical evidence to substantiate the claim that people who decide during campaigns actually respond to campaign events or campaign-specific information.This study incorporates time of decision into dynamic models of campaign effects in order to test whether there is a significant interaction effect between time of decision and campaign persuasion. In sum, the vote intentions of campaign deciders are indeed more volatile because they respond to actual campaign events and coverage, not because they fluctuate haphazardly. People who say they decided before the campaign are, reassuringly, not influenced by campaigns.     

Postmortem interval estimation from body temperature data only

One of the most consistently used methods of postmortem interval estimation (PMIE) is by means of body temperature measurements. Several variations of this method exist, from simple 'rules of the thumb' to quite complex equations requiring a knowledge of body mass and height. All of these methods employ a certain degree of approximation and perhaps the use of standard values and tables, and all of them are susceptible to some degree of error. The present study, at the Department of Forensic Medicine, Leeds, was initiated by the Home Office to investigate the extent of the errors which might be encountered in the use of these methods, and to devise a more simple and accurate method. The method devised is called the time-dependent-z equation, for purely theoretical reasons. It will be referred to as the TDZE method. The TDZE method requires the measurement of two rectal temperatures, about 1 h apart, a little mental arithmetic and reference to a single standard curve. The method is valid for all bodies, obese or emaciated, clothed or naked, in all environmental conditions, without modification. Results of the use of the method on data collected from 67 coroner's cases compare favourably with the results obtained by the use of other methods on the same data.     

山东省吸收外资的时空分布分析兼论问题及对策

山东省自从1979年引进外资以来,经历了起步、缓速发展、快速发展、调整、新一轮的快速发展五个阶段,引资规模位居全国前列,为全省经济发展增添了活力。但从吸收外资的来源地区、产业流向、利用形式及空间差异四方面进行分析,则发现其引资过程中存在产业流向不合理、区域分布不平衡、FDI质量不高及内陆地区投资软环境亟需规范等问题。针对这些问题,应该采取培育高质量的产业集群、调整外资来源布局、扩大服务业开放力度、建立创新体系、利用合力引资模式等措施提高利用外资的质量和效益。     

Estimating Mean Length of Stay in Prison: Methods and Applications

This paper examines various approaches to studying the mean length of stay in prison. The literature contains a wide range of estimates of this quantity. The discrepancies that appear in these estimates and in the conclusions reached from them have been the subject of several reviews. We build upon that work, using the life table as the gold standard, to demonstrate the inaccuracy of common measures such as the ratio of the population size to the annual number of entrances or the mean length of time served by those exiting in a particular period. This demonstration is conducted in two parts. One part uses model populations with constant growth rates; the second part relies upon simulated prison populations with time-varying rates of entrance and exit. In addition, we introduce two new indirect measures that are more accurate than several existing indirect measures and that are relatively easy to use. The new measures are based on the entrance rate or the exit rate and adjust for the growth rate of the prison population.

Cultural Orientations, Daily Activities, and Adjustment in Mexican American Youth

The links between youth’s daily activities and adjustment and the role of cultural practices and values in these links were studied in 469 youth from 237 Mexican American families. In home interviews, data on mothers’, fathers’, and two adolescent-age siblings’ cultural practices (language use, social contacts) and values (for familism, for education achievement) were collected, along with data on youth risky behavior and depressive symptoms. In 7 nightly phone calls, youth reported on their day’s free time activities (i.e., sports, academics, religious activities, television viewing, and hanging out). Analyses revealed that youth who spent more time in unsupervised hanging out reported more depressive symptoms and risky behavior, and those who spent more time in academic activities reported less risky behavior. Results also indicated that more Anglo-oriented youth spent more time in sports, that more Mexican-oriented youth spent more time watching television, that fathers’ familism values were related to youth’s time in religious activities, and that parents’ educational values were linked to youth’s time in academic activities. Some evidence indicated that parents’ cultural practices and values, particularly fathers’, moderated the links between daily activities and youth adjustment.

推拿治疗椎动脉型颈椎病的时效性研究

目的 探讨推拿治疗时间对椎动脉型颈椎病（cervical spondylosis of vertebral artery,CSA）的影响。方法 选取符合纳入标准的CSA患者90例,按随机数字表法随机分为推拿10 min组、推拿20 min组和推拿30 min组,行常规推拿手法治疗,比较治疗前后所有患者临床疗效、颈椎功能评分以及经颅多普勒（transcranial Doppler,TCD）超声检测情况。结果 3组患者临床疗效的分布比较,差异均具有统计学意义（P<0.05）,推拿20 min组和30 min组临床疗效均明显优于10 min组。推拿10 min组治疗前后颈椎功能评分比较,差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）,而推拿20 min组和30 min组治疗后颈椎功能评分均较治疗前明显改善（P＜0.05）。推拿20 min、30 min组较10 min组颈椎功能评分改善程度更加明显（P＜0.05）;推拿20 min组和30 min组相比较,颈椎功能评分改善程度差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）。3组患者治疗前后相比,两侧椎动脉的血流速度均有明显改善（P＜0.05）;与推拿10 min组比较,推拿20 min、30 min组治疗后两侧椎动脉的血流速度改善更加明显（P＜0.05）,推拿20 min和30 min组比较,治疗后两侧椎动脉血流速度的改善程度无统计学意义（P＞0.05）。结论 推拿治疗CSA具有时间累积效应,随着推拿时间的延长,疗效提高,但是到达一定时间疗效不再增加;推拿治疗时间的选择在20 min左右为最佳。     

新犯罪时空观指引下的关联信息侦查

信息化条件下侦查破案方式的探索,转变侦查观念是一个关键性的问题。在侦查破案中侦查人员应当建立新的犯罪时空观,以情报信息为切入点,围绕人、事、物等进行多方位侦查,充分发掘分析利用案件中的各种关联信息,及时发现侦查线索,查明犯罪事实,提高侦破效率。     

英国仲裁司法年度评论—2002

评论2002年英国法院对仲裁事项所作出的决定,包括:(1)执行仲裁条款的情况,对仲裁协议的形式要求和仲裁协议的独立性原则;(2)法院不支持仲裁协议的裁定;(3)仲裁员回避;(4)当事人就仲裁裁决上诉,包括上诉的程序、理由、案件事实认定的问题和法律适用的问题;(5)执行仲裁的裁决;(6)结论,总体评论2002年英国法院对仲裁的司法审查的情况。     

以与时俱进的精神推进严打整治斗争

保持严打高压的态势向来是一种积极主动的治安防控。公安机关应立足于坚持和弘扬与时俱进的精神,积极推进严打整治斗争。在以往成功经验的基础上,着重从工作理念、方式方法、评估体系等方面,提出新时期严打整治斗争的新思路、新措施。