Estimating Mean Length of Stay in Prison: Methods and Applications

This paper examines various approaches to studying the mean length of stay in prison. The literature contains a wide range of estimates of this quantity. The discrepancies that appear in these estimates and in the conclusions reached from them have been the subject of several reviews. We build upon that work, using the life table as the gold standard, to demonstrate the inaccuracy of common measures such as the ratio of the population size to the annual number of entrances or the mean length of time served by those exiting in a particular period. This demonstration is conducted in two parts. One part uses model populations with constant growth rates; the second part relies upon simulated prison populations with time-varying rates of entrance and exit. In addition, we introduce two new indirect measures that are more accurate than several existing indirect measures and that are relatively easy to use. The new measures are based on the entrance rate or the exit rate and adjust for the growth rate of the prison population.

新中国70年机关事务治理的制度变迁:一项历史制度主义的考察

机关事务治理制度是国家治理体系的一项重要内容,有机融汇于新中国成立70年来的历史叙事之中。如何理解我国机关事务治理制度的历史变迁,是影响国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的一个重要命题。我国的机关事务治理从以"后勤服务"为主要表现形态的传统机关事务管理向以"运行保障"为主要表现形态的现代机关事务治理转型,经历了雏形渐成、改革发展、深化改革三次重大的制度变迁。基于历史制度主义的分析范式,机关事务治理制度变迁过程中制度背景、政治变量、路径依赖和关键节点的"混合体"模式深刻影响着机关事务治理制度的变迁历程,国家治理范式下的政治、经济、文化、社会因素则是制度变迁的动力所在。展望未来,机关事务治理现代化要正视新时代赋予的新要求,加强制度创新消解路径依赖逆向张力,推进机关事务治理职能法定化,完善多元协同的机关事务治理模式,从而推进新时代机关事务工作高质量发展。     

Cultural Orientations, Daily Activities, and Adjustment in Mexican American Youth

The links between youth’s daily activities and adjustment and the role of cultural practices and values in these links were studied in 469 youth from 237 Mexican American families. In home interviews, data on mothers’, fathers’, and two adolescent-age siblings’ cultural practices (language use, social contacts) and values (for familism, for education achievement) were collected, along with data on youth risky behavior and depressive symptoms. In 7 nightly phone calls, youth reported on their day’s free time activities (i.e., sports, academics, religious activities, television viewing, and hanging out). Analyses revealed that youth who spent more time in unsupervised hanging out reported more depressive symptoms and risky behavior, and those who spent more time in academic activities reported less risky behavior. Results also indicated that more Anglo-oriented youth spent more time in sports, that more Mexican-oriented youth spent more time watching television, that fathers’ familism values were related to youth’s time in religious activities, and that parents’ educational values were linked to youth’s time in academic activities. Some evidence indicated that parents’ cultural practices and values, particularly fathers’, moderated the links between daily activities and youth adjustment.

改革开放以来党的民族干部政策与西部民族地区的科学发展

西部民族地区要加快科学发展,缩小与东部发达地区的差距,必须大力培养和选拔少数民族干部,这是党和国家一项重要的民族政策。本文从西部民族地区发展少数民族干部的重要性出发,具体阐述了改革开放以来党的民族干部政策对推动西部民族地区科学发展的历史经验,并从中引发出若干思考。     

推拿治疗椎动脉型颈椎病的时效性研究

目的 探讨推拿治疗时间对椎动脉型颈椎病（cervical spondylosis of vertebral artery,CSA）的影响。方法 选取符合纳入标准的CSA患者90例,按随机数字表法随机分为推拿10 min组、推拿20 min组和推拿30 min组,行常规推拿手法治疗,比较治疗前后所有患者临床疗效、颈椎功能评分以及经颅多普勒（transcranial Doppler,TCD）超声检测情况。结果 3组患者临床疗效的分布比较,差异均具有统计学意义（P<0.05）,推拿20 min组和30 min组临床疗效均明显优于10 min组。推拿10 min组治疗前后颈椎功能评分比较,差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）,而推拿20 min组和30 min组治疗后颈椎功能评分均较治疗前明显改善（P＜0.05）。推拿20 min、30 min组较10 min组颈椎功能评分改善程度更加明显（P＜0.05）;推拿20 min组和30 min组相比较,颈椎功能评分改善程度差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）。3组患者治疗前后相比,两侧椎动脉的血流速度均有明显改善（P＜0.05）;与推拿10 min组比较,推拿20 min、30 min组治疗后两侧椎动脉的血流速度改善更加明显（P＜0.05）,推拿20 min和30 min组比较,治疗后两侧椎动脉血流速度的改善程度无统计学意义（P＞0.05）。结论 推拿治疗CSA具有时间累积效应,随着推拿时间的延长,疗效提高,但是到达一定时间疗效不再增加;推拿治疗时间的选择在20 min左右为最佳。     

新中国70年巨变背后的“政治密码”

回首新中国70年风雨砥砺、春华秋实,是我们党带领人民一路披荆斩棘、一往无前,是无数共产党人不忘初心、牢记使命的奉献与担当,也让世界更加看清新中国70年巨变背后的“政治密码”:坚持党的领导是最大变因,站稳人民立场是最大的政治优势,坚定马克思主义信仰是华美政治乐章,把准政治方向是坚强政治定力,走好政治道路是重大政治保证。     

影响真空镀膜显现手印效果的因素分析

目的考查真空镀膜技术在手印显现方面的应用。方法从影响真空镀膜法显现手印的因素展开,重点分析了喷镀距离、金的用量、客体悬挂角度、锌的蒸发电流和时间等对手印显现的影响。结果条件优化后可以增强手印纹线的立体感,改善金膜、锌膜在手印纹线和客体背景的分布情况,使显出的手印纹线反差明显。结论确定真空镀膜显现常见非渗透性客体上汗潜手印的最佳操作条件。     

新犯罪时空观指引下的关联信息侦查

信息化条件下侦查破案方式的探索,转变侦查观念是一个关键性的问题。在侦查破案中侦查人员应当建立新的犯罪时空观,以情报信息为切入点,围绕人、事、物等进行多方位侦查,充分发掘分析利用案件中的各种关联信息,及时发现侦查线索,查明犯罪事实,提高侦破效率。     

大鼠脑、骨髓细胞核DNA降解推断死后间隔时间的研究

目的检测大鼠死后不同温度下脑、骨髓细胞核DNA降解规律，寻找推断早期死亡间隔时间（PMI）的新参数。方法10℃和20℃下，大鼠死后0～40h内，每隔4h取材脑组织和骨髓，单细胞凝胶电泳（SCGE）检测DNA降解程度，线性回归分析比较彗星参数HeadDNA％、尾长（TL）、Olive尾矩（TM）与PMI的关系。结果大鼠死后早期脑细胞、骨髓细胞核Head DNA％随着PMI逐渐下降的程度不同，20℃脑细胞核Head DNA％降解速率较快。与骨髓细胞相比，脑细胞核Head DNA％与PMI线性关系较好。与TL、TM相比，Head DNA％与PMI的线性关系较好。结论脑组织是利用SCGE检测DNA降解推断PMI的合适检材。Head DNA％较TL、TM推断PMI的价值更高。