A Comparative Test of Clinical Judgment Versus Actuarial Prediction of Future Violence

This study tested how graduate level psychology graduate students (n = 20) using the Adapted Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (Adapted VRAG) would do relative to practicing psychologists/psychiatrists (n = 16) using clinical judgment when predicting violence in 10 narratives from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment study (Monahan et al., The MacArthur violence risk assessment study. . Retrieved 10 Oct 2005). Results indicated that the practicing psychologists/psychiatrists made significantly more correct predictions than the master’s level students. The professional group demonstrated sensitivity levels of 77.7% and specificity of 96.3%. For the use of the adapted VRAG method by the graduate student group, specificity levels were modest at 54.0%. Sensitivity levels, however, were lower than earlier demonstrated levels at 58.0%. These findings are at variance with earlier reports comparing clinical and actuarial methods. The results may reflect the short amount of time the master’s level students were trained using the Adapted VRAG as well as the small number of participants in this study. Additional research comparing other professions is recommended, as well as examining if experience in the forensics field would affect one’s ability to predict violence.     

城镇化进程中信息化社会治安防控对策研究——以贵州省为例

我国处在城镇化建设的关键时期,不可避免面临城镇化进程中所产生的流动人口增多、社会资源需求冲突、社会治安管理难度加大等问题。分析城镇化背景下贵州省现有治安状况的特点,针对当前治安防控手段的不足,明确信息化在治安防控中的重要地位与作用,以空间预防理论为指导,将信息化手段应用到社会治安防控中,实现对治安防控的宏观掌握,以保障社会秩序的健康稳定发展。     

防治腐败:环节论

腐败的产生有一个过程,大致可分为腐败意识的萌发、腐败行为的产生和腐败后果的形成这样前后相继、相互关联但又各有区别的三个环节或阶段。是故,要想有效防治腐败,就必须相应地采用思想教育、制度规范和严加惩处三种方略。     

零容忍政策探析

美国纽约的犯罪率自1994年之后急剧下降,许多媒体、政治家、警务工作者将其归因于零容忍政策的有效推行,从而使这一政策成为许多国家关注和讨论的热点。零容忍政策的核心意思是对各种反社会的行为和犯罪应当采取严厉打击的态度,哪怕是对轻微的违法犯罪行为,也要毫不犹豫、决不妥协地进行彻底的斗争。通过考察和探析零容忍政策的含义、理论根据、历史、实践和社会评价等方面的意义,探讨将这一政策作为当前我国社会治安工作新方向的可能性。     

中国艾滋病立法三题——以制定《艾滋病防治条例》为例

近年来我国日益严峻的艾滋病形势要求加快艾滋病防治条例的立法进程。在制定条例时,要坚持立法的基本原则,按照立法依据制定条例。条例内容主要应包括法规名称、总则内容、分则内容和附则内容。     

Mortality among habitually violent offenders

There are no published studies about mortality among habitually violent offenders, although it would be essential to take into account the possibly higher mortality rate of this population, when the incidence of committing violent offenders is calculated as a function of age. We studied mortality during the age range 30–50 years among 102 habitually violent male offenders, who were considered to be dangerous to the lives of other people, during the 24.5-year period 1971–1995 (in the range 3.5 months–24.5 years, the average prison time was 6 years, 7 months and 11 days). In Finland, the deathrate in the group of men aged 30–50 years is 3.7/1000/year, but among these habitually violent male criminals, the mortality rate was observed to be 18.1/1000/year. Therefore, the relative risk for dying in this age group was 4.9-fold when compared with the normal male population aged 30–50 years. A finding of this magnitude has a substantial effect, when the real incidence of committing homicides or other violent offenses is calculated as a function of age. This is an important issue in forensic psychiatry, since it is generally believed that the incidence of committing violent crimes is decreased between the ages of 30 and 50 years, and age is used as one predictive factor when the risk of forthcoming violent behavior is assessed.     

市场经济条件下社会治安防控的一条有效途径--治安辅助力量走职业化、市场化和社会化道路的思考

当前,社会治安形势日趋严重,由公安机关一家来承担社会治安防控任务是不可能的,也是不现实的.因此,治安辅助力量的运用就成为市场经济条件下社会治安防控的一条有效途径,而且,治安辅助力量应向职业化、市场化和社会化方向发展.     

论枫桥经验的犯罪合作治理意蕴

枫桥经验中蕴含的合作预防、对话型司法等理念深刻影响着中国犯罪学的发展向度。相较于传统的国家惩罚本位主义,枫桥经验注重发挥多种主体的协作优势,并融合法治与德治要素,引领着犯罪合作预防之模式;相较于传统的国家刚性司法面孔,枫桥经验强调乡贤治理与定纷止争,并早已暗合了认罪认罚从宽的对话型司法理念,国家机关不再是纯粹的惩罚主体,而是以沟通的姿态参与犯罪共治的合作格局。在社区矫正方面,通过社会控制理论和标签理论,枫桥经验的合作治理范式得以进一步揭示。     

新冠疫情背景下妨害传染病防治罪的解释扩张及其回归

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情中的法律规范适用带来新视角与新问题,在超越可容忍的社会相当性且有刑事可罚追究必要的场合,我国刑法中妨害传染病防治罪的规范适用值得关注。该罪的对象被限定为"甲类传染病",本次新冠肺炎被列为"乙类传染病",从而该罪存在适用上的瓶颈。司法解释的渐进扩张具有唤醒妨害传染病防治罪和注重公共卫生安全法益保护的一面,但是选取的方式难以与刑事法治相契合。为了更好地实现刑法参与社会治理的功能需求,应当对妨害传染病防治罪采取"立法类型化调整、司法解释适度限制"的组合路径,使刑法规范的社会适应性与刑罚处罚的有限性相融合。     

New AFCC Guidelines for Parenting Coordination (2019)

In 2017, AFCC President Annette Burns (2017–18) commissioned a Task Force, led by Dr. Debra Carter, to review the many changes and developments in parenting coordination that had occurred across the United States, in Canada, and across the world in the approximately 12 years since the 2005 Parenting Coordination Guidelines were released. Though primarily commissioned to update and revise the 2005 Guidelines, the Task Force also identified emerging issues in need of exploration – the use of technology in parenting coordination, parenting coordination as an intervention when intimate partner violence is a component of the dynamic, the importance of multicultural awareness and responsiveness, and the overall impact of the statutes, rules, and regulations that had evolved in significantly varying forms since parenting coordination first presented as an intervention for court‐involved families. The work of the Task Force, including the new (2019) Guidelines for Parenting Coordination, is presented.