A Comparative Test of Clinical Judgment Versus Actuarial Prediction of Future Violence

This study tested how graduate level psychology graduate students (n = 20) using the Adapted Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (Adapted VRAG) would do relative to practicing psychologists/psychiatrists (n = 16) using clinical judgment when predicting violence in 10 narratives from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment study (Monahan et al., The MacArthur violence risk assessment study. . Retrieved 10 Oct 2005). Results indicated that the practicing psychologists/psychiatrists made significantly more correct predictions than the master’s level students. The professional group demonstrated sensitivity levels of 77.7% and specificity of 96.3%. For the use of the adapted VRAG method by the graduate student group, specificity levels were modest at 54.0%. Sensitivity levels, however, were lower than earlier demonstrated levels at 58.0%. These findings are at variance with earlier reports comparing clinical and actuarial methods. The results may reflect the short amount of time the master’s level students were trained using the Adapted VRAG as well as the small number of participants in this study. Additional research comparing other professions is recommended, as well as examining if experience in the forensics field would affect one’s ability to predict violence.     

零容忍政策探析

美国纽约的犯罪率自1994年之后急剧下降,许多媒体、政治家、警务工作者将其归因于零容忍政策的有效推行,从而使这一政策成为许多国家关注和讨论的热点。零容忍政策的核心意思是对各种反社会的行为和犯罪应当采取严厉打击的态度,哪怕是对轻微的违法犯罪行为,也要毫不犹豫、决不妥协地进行彻底的斗争。通过考察和探析零容忍政策的含义、理论根据、历史、实践和社会评价等方面的意义,探讨将这一政策作为当前我国社会治安工作新方向的可能性。     

Mortality among habitually violent offenders

There are no published studies about mortality among habitually violent offenders, although it would be essential to take into account the possibly higher mortality rate of this population, when the incidence of committing violent offenders is calculated as a function of age. We studied mortality during the age range 30–50 years among 102 habitually violent male offenders, who were considered to be dangerous to the lives of other people, during the 24.5-year period 1971–1995 (in the range 3.5 months–24.5 years, the average prison time was 6 years, 7 months and 11 days). In Finland, the deathrate in the group of men aged 30–50 years is 3.7/1000/year, but among these habitually violent male criminals, the mortality rate was observed to be 18.1/1000/year. Therefore, the relative risk for dying in this age group was 4.9-fold when compared with the normal male population aged 30–50 years. A finding of this magnitude has a substantial effect, when the real incidence of committing homicides or other violent offenses is calculated as a function of age. This is an important issue in forensic psychiatry, since it is generally believed that the incidence of committing violent crimes is decreased between the ages of 30 and 50 years, and age is used as one predictive factor when the risk of forthcoming violent behavior is assessed.     

市场经济条件下社会治安防控的一条有效途径--治安辅助力量走职业化、市场化和社会化道路的思考

当前,社会治安形势日趋严重,由公安机关一家来承担社会治安防控任务是不可能的,也是不现实的.因此,治安辅助力量的运用就成为市场经济条件下社会治安防控的一条有效途径,而且,治安辅助力量应向职业化、市场化和社会化方向发展.     

论枫桥经验的犯罪合作治理意蕴

枫桥经验中蕴含的合作预防、对话型司法等理念深刻影响着中国犯罪学的发展向度。相较于传统的国家惩罚本位主义,枫桥经验注重发挥多种主体的协作优势,并融合法治与德治要素,引领着犯罪合作预防之模式;相较于传统的国家刚性司法面孔,枫桥经验强调乡贤治理与定纷止争,并早已暗合了认罪认罚从宽的对话型司法理念,国家机关不再是纯粹的惩罚主体,而是以沟通的姿态参与犯罪共治的合作格局。在社区矫正方面,通过社会控制理论和标签理论,枫桥经验的合作治理范式得以进一步揭示。     

New AFCC Guidelines for Parenting Coordination (2019)

In 2017, AFCC President Annette Burns (2017–18) commissioned a Task Force, led by Dr. Debra Carter, to review the many changes and developments in parenting coordination that had occurred across the United States, in Canada, and across the world in the approximately 12 years since the 2005 Parenting Coordination Guidelines were released. Though primarily commissioned to update and revise the 2005 Guidelines, the Task Force also identified emerging issues in need of exploration – the use of technology in parenting coordination, parenting coordination as an intervention when intimate partner violence is a component of the dynamic, the importance of multicultural awareness and responsiveness, and the overall impact of the statutes, rules, and regulations that had evolved in significantly varying forms since parenting coordination first presented as an intervention for court‐involved families. The work of the Task Force, including the new (2019) Guidelines for Parenting Coordination, is presented.     

Innovative Programs in Israel for Prevention & Responding to Parental Alienation: Education,Early Identification and Timely,Effective Intervention

There is substantial research and documentation showing that behavior of a parent which alienates a child against the other parent (PA) and other family members may cause serious, and sometimes permanent, damage to the child. Building on the work that defines maladaptive parental gatekeeping (MG) and PA, and on identifying typologies of behavior, and their effects on the alienated child, the need for prevention of children in these cases is well established. This paper describes programs and responses in Israel, some already in place and others under development, almost all of which require multidisciplinary collaboration between professionals. The programs include: primary prevention; early identification, so as to allow prompt secondary intervention by advice and treatment of parents and child; and immediate tertiary intervention when alienation has led to contact failure or is about to do so. Prevention and early intervention can reduce the need for the massive investment of resources needed for attempts to restore contact, and also for treatment of those affected by PA.     

How Much Does School Matter? An Examination of Adolescent Dating Violence Perpetration

The purpose of this study was two-fold: (1) to identify how school factors were related to perpetration of dating violence among adolescents; and (2) to assess how these factors may reduce or exacerbate the relationship between parental domestic violence and adolescents’ perpetration of dating violence, while accounting for individual and family characteristics from early adolescence. Three waves of data from the Welfare, Children, and Families: A Three-City Study were used (N = 765; Ages 16–20 at Wave 3). Lagged Ordinary Least Squares multiple regression techniques were utilized to examine the link between perpetration of dating violence and school factors. Results are presented separately by adolescents’ sex and ethnicity-by-sex. Early involvement with antisocial peers and an increase in involvement with antisocial peers over time were linked to perpetration of dating violence for males, females, African-American females, and Hispanic males. Lack of school safety and academic difficulties during early adolescence exacerbated the impact of parental domestic violence exposure for African-American males and Hispanic males, respectively. Early school involvement, surprisingly, exacerbated this impact for Hispanic females. Implications for the prevention of perpetration of dating violence are explored.

陕甘宁边区乡村民众的防灾备荒措施研究

灾荒肆虐、灾害频繁曾是陕甘宁边区乡村社会的一大顽症，如何应对灾荒既是党和政府的重要职责，更是乡村民众必须面对的一个现实问题。陕甘宁边区的乡村民众有着系统而具体的防灾备荒措施，总结这些措施，既能再现当年救灾抗灾的生动画面，又能挖掘出其中的宝贵经验，为当前提供可资借鉴的经验。