Decision‐making during international crises: A reexamination

The purpose of this research note is to reexamine the methods and codings of crisis decision‐making processes performed by Herek, Janis, and Huth in 1987, and thereby to discuss the role of the case survey method as a means to build theory in the study of foreign policy. The research reported here uses a somewhat different measure of decision‐making process quality and a slightly expanded list of data sources than were used by Herek and his colleagues. It reevaluates a subset of the cases explored in the previous study. This research note largely confirms the analysis of crisis decision‐making processes presented in the previous study, though it notes and discusses some discrepancies. Furthermore, this reexamination seeks to contribute to our understanding of crisis decision‐making processes by using a different conceptualization of decision‐making process quality and thus a different coding procedure.     

从“1＋X”到“营销式”警务的探索与实践

构建和谐警民关系是公安工作的立足点和着力点，同时也是一门关系营销的学问。江山市公安局自实施“1＋X”警务分级管理模式以来，较好地解决了“谁做”的问题，而“营销式”警务正是解决“怎么做”的课题。它所倡导的是“主动警务”理念，着力于提高警务区民警做群众工作的能力和水平。“营销式”警务强调，顺应民需，练好内部营销；广聚民智，强化外部营销；巧借民力，深化借力型营销。     

用串联质谱法提高毒鼠强的检测灵敏度

目的建立一种能避免生物样品中杂质的干扰,提高毒鼠强检测灵敏度的方法。方法应用串联质谱法,对生物样品中的毒鼠强进行检验研究。结果在样品无需净化的情况下,以m/z240为母离子,当激活电压在0.8V左右时,毒鼠强二次电离的离子碎片适中,质谱谱图清晰;此时进样量为1.0ng的毒鼠强,其信噪比(s/n)为87,经与全扫描质谱法进行比较灵敏度大为提高。结论该方法能有效提高毒鼠强检测灵敏度,适用于同类案件检验。     

SELECTIVE INCAPACITATION,THREE STRIKES,AND THE PROBLEM OF AGING PRISON POPULATIONS: USING SIMULATION MODELING TO SEE THE FUTURE*

Research Summary: The growth of prison populations over the last three decades is a great source of concern for policy makers and observers. One mechanism by which this growth occurs is via sentencing reforms that extend length of stay for certain categories of offenders. This has the effect of aging prison populations, which is problematic for many reasons. Apart from the increased financial burdens entailed in caring for older prisoners, it is also important to consider the intent of reforms in evaluating them. Of late, sentencing reform has become increasingly focused on the selective incapacitation of dangerous offenders. Policies that have the effect of aging the prison population are problematic from this perspective due to the diminishing returns realized with respect to incapacitation as offenders age. Dynamic systems simulation analysis is employed to investigate the likely consequences of recent sentencing reforms that increase length of stay for some offenders. These analyses indicate that the effects of recent reforms may not be as dramatic as some observers have predicted, but they suggest that the consideration of alternatives to incarceration for elderly offenders is warranted from the standpoint of cost considerations as well as that of selective incapacitation. Policy Implications: The results indicate that California's Three Strikes law will not accelerate the rate of growth of the elderly prison population. However, even without increasing the proportional representation of elderly prisoners, the number of elderly prisoners is expected to grow substantially over the next three decades. These prisoners will strain criminal justice system resources while presenting little public safety threat. State criminal justice policy makers and their constituents should closely examine laws that impose very long stays without discretionary release, as these statutes may contribute to the production of elderly prisoners. This problem is particularly pronounced in Three Strikes and other habitual offender laws that use retrospective methods to identify habitual offenders. Additionally, the effects of reforms lengthening stay for some offenders must be considered in light of cumulative effects of sentencing reform resulting in changes to the demographic structure of the prison population overall. Dynamic systems simulation modeling is presented as a valuable policy‐making tool, as it allows the policy analyst to examine the potential impacts of laws in the absence of data suitable for conventional statistical analyses.     

STRUCTURAL FACTORS AND BLACK INTERRACIAL HOMICIDE: A NEW EXAMINATION OF THE CAUSAL PROCESS*

This study evaluates the assumption that deprivation among African Americans and racial inequality lead to black interracial homicide due to racial conflict and antagonism. Using refined race‐adjusted Supplemental Homicide Report data, Uniform Crime Report data and census data, we test an alternative hypothesis that draws on the macrostructural opportunity theory to assess and more accurately specify the relationship between structural characteristics and black interracial homicide. We find that first, the relationship between economic factors and black interracial homicide can be explained in large part by high rates of financially motivated crime such as robbery, and second, that economic factors are associated with financially motivated but not expressive black interracial killings. Analyses of black intraracial killings are performed for comparison purposes. Collectively, the findings suggest that conflict‐based explanations rooted in racial antagonism and frustration aggression may be premature.     

口蹄疫病毒多基因片段的克隆及其杆状病毒表达载体的构建

根据定点突变原理获得了包含口蹄疫病毒P1、2A、3C、3D及部分 2B编码区的目的基因片段 ,经SpeⅠ和HindⅢ双酶切后 ,与经相同方法处理的杆状病毒转移载体 pFastBacHT连接 ,得到了重组质粒 pFB P12X3C3D。经酶切和测序鉴定后 ,将其转化入含穿梭载体Bacmid的感受态细胞DH10Bac ,经抗性及蓝白斑筛选 ,得到了含P12X3C3D多基因的重组穿梭载体 ,将其命名为Bacmid P12X3C3D ;提取其DNA并转染Sf9昆虫细胞 ,最后获得含口蹄疫病毒P12X3C3D多基因的重组杆状病毒。     

生物组织中甲胺磷及其异构体的串联质谱法分析

目的建立可用于生物体内甲胺磷及其异构体O,O二甲基氨基硫代磷酸酯检验的高灵敏度方法。方法应用串联质谱法(GCMS/MS),对生物样品中的甲胺磷及其异构体进行检验研究。结果选择质荷比为141的离子为母离子,击发电压为0.8V时,甲胺磷及其异构体二次电离碎片适中,质谱谱图清晰。50%甲胺磷乳油进样量为0.1ng时,甲胺磷及O,O二甲基氨基硫代磷酸酯峰的信噪比分别为436、773。经实验,甲胺磷检测限为20pg。结论所拟方法能有效提高甲胺磷的检测灵敏度。     

Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method

In recent years, a widespread consensus has emerged about the necessity of establishing bridges between quantitative and qualitative approaches to empirical research in political science. In this article, we discuss the use of the synthetic control method as a way to bridge the quantitative/qualitative divide in comparative politics. The synthetic control method provides a systematic way to choose comparison units in comparative case studies. This systematization opens the door to precise quantitative inference in small‐sample comparative studies, without precluding the application of qualitative approaches. Borrowing the expression from Sidney Tarrow, the synthetic control method allows researchers to put “qualitative flesh on quantitative bones.” We illustrate the main ideas behind the synthetic control method by estimating the economic impact of the 1990 German reunification on West Germany.     

Residential Aged Care Policy in Australia – Are We Learning from Evidence?

The residential aged care industry in Australia will expand rapidly over the next 10 years leading to substantial increases in government expenditure. Recent and future reforms are likely leading to changes in the structure of the industry with a potential impact on quality of care. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate broader public debate, based on the available evidence, about the preferred structure of this important industry. It examines the literature on the impact structure has on the quality of services and compares this with a fresh analysis of current trends. The paper argues that future policy should be evidence based and explicit about the structure of the industry that will emerge from current policy reforms.