我国社区矫正立法述评

当前,我国社区矫正立法已取得一定进展,主要表现在正式确立了社区矫正制度,细化了社区矫正的适用条件,加强了对社区矫正人员的监督管理,强化了检察机关对于社区矫正过程的监督。但是,仍然存在明显不足,如社区矫正的主要法律渊源地位尴尬,社区矫正执行机关尚未明确,社区矫正对象存在争议,相关称谓混乱,再社会化内容缺失与不足,社区矫正奖惩种类缺乏统一的规范等等,需要进一步通过立法予以完善。     

Workplace Assessment of Targeted Violence Risk: The Development and Reliability of the WAVR‐21

This study describes the development of the WAVR‐21, a structured professional judgment guide for the assessment of workplace targeted violence, and presents initial interrater reliability results. The 21‐item instrument codes both static and dynamic risk factors and change, if any, over time. Five critical items or red flag indicators assess violent motives, ideation, intent, weapons skill, and pre‐attack planning. Additional items assess the contribution of mental disorder, negative personality factors, situational factors, and a protective factor. Eleven raters each rated 12 randomly assigned cases from actual files of workplace threat scenarios. Summary interrater reliability correlation coefficients (ICCs) for overall presence of risk factors, risk of violence, and seriousness of the violent act were in the fair to good range, similar to other structured professional judgment instruments. A subgroup of psychologists who were coders produced an ICC of 0.76 for overall presence of risk factors. Some of the individual items had poor reliability for both clinical and statistical reasons. The WAVR‐21 appears to improve the structuring and organizing of empirically based risk‐relevant data and may enhance communication and decision making.     

Information‐Theoretical Assessment of the Performance of Likelihood Ratio Computation Methods

Performance of likelihood ratio (LR) methods for evidence evaluation has been represented in the past using, for example, Tippett plots. We propose empirical cross‐entropy (ECE) plots as a metric of accuracy based on the statistical theory of proper scoring rules, interpretable as information given by the evidence according to information theory, which quantify calibration of LR values. We present results with a case example using a glass database from real casework, comparing performance with both Tippett and ECE plots. We conclude that ECE plots allow clearer comparisons of LR methods than previous metrics, allowing a theoretical criterion to determine whether a given method should be used for evidence evaluation or not, which is an improvement over Tippett plots. A set of recommendations for the use of the proposed methodology by practitioners is also given.     

Probabilistic Classification of Age by Third Molar Development: The Use of Soft Evidence

Abstract: This study introduces a method to classify individuals according to an age threshold, given sex and third molars’ dental maturity measured on the Demirjian scale by expressing uncertainty on dental evidence (soft evidence). We introduced a procedure to learn the parameters of the Naïve Bayes model, and we discussed two classification rules. The model was estimated and tested on 559 Italians aged 16–22. Two experts provided the dental evaluations, and the model was estimated for each of them. We evaluated the coherence of the evidence provided by the experts. Some indexes have been proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the models, emphasizing how the experts’ ability and the technology affect the results. We introduced two benchmarks, one based on the sample distribution per sex and age: in this case, probability of correct classification increases 22% and the proportion of false adults impressively decreases 80.2%; the other benchmark, obtained by simulating hard evidence, shows how the use of soft evidence increases the proportion of correct classification 3.1% and decreases the crucial proportion of false adults about 20%. Similarly, the proportion of false minors decreases about 5.3%.     

The Reliability of the Greulich and Pyle Atlas When Applied to a Modern Scottish Population

This study examines the reliability of age estimation utilizing the Greulich and Pyle atlas in relation to a modern Scottish population. A total of 406 left‐hand/wrist radiographs (157 females and 249 males) were age‐assessed using the Greulich and Pyle atlas. Analysis showed that there was a strong correlation between chronological age and estimated age (females R² = 0.939, males R² = 0.940). When age groups were broken down into year cohorts, the atlas over‐aged females from birth until 13 years of age. The pattern for males showed that the atlas under‐estimated age until 13 years of age after which point it consistently over‐aged boys between 13 and 17 years of age. This study showed that the Greulich and Pyle atlas can be applied to a modern population but would recommend that any analysis takes into account the potential for over‐ and under‐aging shown in this study.     

《特殊痕迹检验》课程考核模式的改革与实践

考核模式改革是我校＂教学重心转变＂工作中教学模式改革的重点和核心内容之一。本文通过对《特殊痕迹检验》课程考核模式的改革与实践,提出了适应本专业学生教学练战一体化的考核模式。     

试论中国特色社会主义的道路自信

中国特色社会主义道路自信包括对发展道路既有成果的充分肯定、对目前发展道路创新性延续的清晰认知、对未来发展道路的充分信心。中国特色社会主义道路自信来源于这一道路本身的优越性,只有优越才能够自信。中国特色社会主义道路的优越性主要表现在绝对优越性(即本身的优越性)和相对优越性(即比较的优越性)。要增强中国特色社会主义的道路自信就必须不断发挥社会主义的优越性。     

Creating a safer working environment through psychological assessment: A review of a measure of safety consciousness

This article explores how organizations can prevent workplace accidents through the psychological assessment of employees. We present a model of employee safety consciousness consisting of personality and attitudinal variables associated with a higher risk of accident involvement. A safety conscious employee is described as one who: has an internal locus of control in matters related to workplace safety, has a high tolerance for work‐related stress, and avoids engaging in high‐risk, sensation‐seeking activities. Relevant research is reviewed and applications of the safety consciousness construct to hiring, promotion and training are discussed.