The differential predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory: the role of gender

Most criminogenic risk assessments are developed and empirically validated on samples of boys or samples comprised of mostly boys, and subsequently applied to girls. Using a sample of male (n = 1,267) and female (n = 453) probationers, the purpose of the current study was to examine the potentially differential performance of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) and the instrument’s eight domains for female juvenile offenders. Findings revealed gender differences in the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI in which girls scored significantly higher on the risk assessment, but recidivated at significantly lower rates than boys two years following the administration of the assessment. The predictive validity of the instrument was impacted by these gender differences in which the YLS/CMI total score was a better predictor of recidivism for boys (area under the curve (AUC) = .623) than girls (AUC = .565). The only subscales that significantly predicted recidivism for girls were the family (AUC = .607) and personality (AUC = .572) domains, whereas all of the subscales significantly predicted recidivism for boys. Directions for future research as well as gender-responsive assessment, programming, and policy implications are discussed.     

Seeing is believing: observer perceptions of trait trustworthiness predict perceptions of honesty in high-stakes emotional appeals

Instantaneous first impressions of facial trustworthiness influence the manner in which observers evaluate ensuing information about stranger targets [e.g. Porter, S., &; ten Brinke, L. (2009). Dangerous decisions: A theoretical framework for understanding how judges assess credibility in the courtroom. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 14, 119–134. doi:10.1348/135532508X281520]. In two studies, we examined the association between perceptions of general trustworthiness and honesty assessments in an extremely high-stakes sample – individuals publicly pleading for the return of a missing relative, half of whom had killed the missing individual. In Study 1, observers (N?=?131) provided trustworthiness ratings – either before or after viewing and evaluating the honesty of videotaped or audio-only pleas – for a still image that depicted a neutral expression on the face of each pleader. In Study 2, observers (N?=?220) evaluated the sincerity of audio pleas paired either with an untrustworthy-looking target, a trustworthy-looking target, or no target face. Collectively, our findings indicated that first impressions of trait trustworthiness form the basis of state judgments of honesty, potentially contributing to misguided credibility assessments and miscarriages of justice in the legal system.     

Understanding dynamic risk factors for violence

ABSTRACT

Recent years have seen a consensus emerge regarding the dynamic risk factors that are associated with future violence. These risk factors are now routinely assessed in structured violence risk assessment instruments. They provide a focus for treatment in structured group programmes. However, relatively little attention has been paid to risk-related theoretical issues, whether these dynamic risk factors are causally related or simply correlates of violent offending, or the extent to which they change as a consequence of treatment. More challenging is the lack of evidence to suggest that changes in these dynamic risk factors actually result in reductions in violent offending. In this paper we consider the meaning of the term dynamic risk, arguing that only those factors that, when changed, reduce the likelihood of violent recidivism, can be considered to be truly dynamic. We conclude that few of the violence risk factors commonly regarded as dynamic fulfil this requirement. There is a need to think more critically about assessment findings and treatment recommendations relating to dynamic risk, and conduct research that establishes, rather than assumes, that certain dynamic risk factors are directly related to violence. Some suggestions for advancing knowledge and practice are provided.     

Validity and reliability of the VRAG in a forensic psychiatric medium security population in Flanders

Since the development of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), one of the most widely used actuarial risk assessment instruments, numerous replication studies have shown its usefulness in predicting (violent) recidivism among various offender populations. It is not clear, however, whether these findings can be generalized to forensic psychiatric patients admitted to a medium security forensic psychiatric unit in the Flemish part of Belgium. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to test the predictive validity and reliability of the VRAG in a sample of 191 Flemish medium security patients. The mean follow-up period was 2.4 years. Contrary to the expectations, the VRAG was unable to significantly predict any kind of outcome. Possible explanations are discussed and further research with the VRAG in Flanders, and its recently revised version, is recommended.     

The emperor has no clothes: A systemic view of the status and future of child custody evaluation (CCE)

For all of the time, effort, and money invested in child custody evaluation (CCE) and for all of evaluators' emphases on collecting empirically sound data, CCE is not itself an empirically robust process. The reliability, validity, efficacy, and efficiency of CCE has never yet been adequately demonstrated. The science has yet even to define and measure the variables that constitute a healthy family, much less how one is to measure and recommend changes for conflicted systems in the midst of tectonic transitions. This article proposes five ways in which family law professionals and the culture at large should work to better serve the needs of our children: (1) the establishment of proactive parenting and co-parenting education intended to diminish the frequency and magnitude of family conflict and improve the quality of child and family functioning; (2) the introduction of organized incentives that motivate healthy parenting and co-parenting practices as opposed to negative consequences that do too-little, too-late; (3) a greater emphasis on social equity, cultural humility, and universal professional training; (4) the creation of ethical guidelines that disconnect continuing conflict from professional income; and (5) outcome research that feeds back into the evolution of these and related processes.     

论政府机关人力资源管理的优化

政府机关人力资源管理在我国推行"人才强国"的战略中处于枢纽地位,它可以被看作一个主要由选人、育人、用人和留人四个环节进行循环运动以期达到整个人力资源管理动态平衡的生态环流系统。目前,由于在这四个环节上的沟通不畅或衔接不佳,导致政府机关人力资源管理系统的局部失衡乃至整个系统的不良运行,影响了政府效能的发挥。因此,政府机关要优化人力资源管理,寻求这四方面的动态平衡和整个人力资源管理系统的良性循环,从而最大限度地为提高政府效能服务。     

我国食品安全风险评估科学顾问的合法性危机及其克服

我国食品安全风险评估科学顾问的合法性危机既体现在"作为行为"中,也体现在"不作为行为"中,突出表现为社会对其作出的风险评估结论持不信任态度。原因在于:科学顾问缺乏科学上的卓越性和独立性及其活动缺乏透明性。需要设计公正和科学的科学顾问成员的遴选制度、广泛和有效地支撑其开展风险评估工作的网络体系、精密和完整的利益声明规则、合理和全面的食品安全风险评估活动的公开等制度来有效克服科学顾问的合法性危机。     

Abnormal Daily Temperature and Concern about Climate Change Across the United States

The relatively low level of concern about climate change among Americans has important implications for climate policy. While many studies have examined individual characteristics associated with climate change attitudes, fewer studies have considered the effects of environmental conditions on such attitudes. Here, we use two national samples of American adults to explore the impact of abnormal daily temperatures on levels of concern about climate change. We test the hypotheses that (1) abnormally warm temperatures, and (2) both abnormally warm and abnormally cool temperatures are associated with higher levels of concern. Using a generalized ordinal logit, we find that the quadratic form of deviation from mean temperature on the date of the survey is significantly associated with higher levels of concern, thus supporting the second hypothesis. We discuss several theoretical frameworks that may explain this result including availability bias, mental models, and implicit stimuli, and the implications for climate policy.     

Disowning Fukushima: Managing the credibility of nuclear reliability assessment in the wake of disaster

This paper reflects on the credibility of nuclear risk assessment in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima meltdowns. In democratic states, policymaking around nuclear energy has long been premised on an understanding that experts can objectively and accurately calculate the probability of catastrophic accidents. Yet the Fukushima disaster lends credence to the substantial body of social science research that suggests such calculations are fundamentally unworkable. Nevertheless, the credibility of these assessments appears to have survived the disaster, just as it has resisted the evidence of previous nuclear accidents. This paper looks at why. It argues that public narratives of the Fukushima disaster invariably frame it in ways that allow risk‐assessment experts to “disown” it. It concludes that although these narratives are both rhetorically compelling and highly consequential to the governance of nuclear power, they are not entirely credible.