信息化战争中我军舆论战战法的构建

信息化战争按时间可划分为扼制战争阶段、战前准备阶段、战争实施阶段、战争结束阶段。科学构建信息化战争中我军舆论战战法,需要将信息化战争各阶段舆论战的“重心”细化为各种具体任务,针对每个任务提出相关战法。     

Age estimation of individuals aged 5–23 years based on dental development of the Indonesian population

Dental development can be used to estimate age for forensic purposes. However, most of the currently available methods are less reliable for the Indonesian population due to population variability. This study presents a new method and evaluates other methods that utilize dental development to estimate the age of Indonesian people. Panoramic radiographs of 304 young Indonesian people aged 5–23 years old were analysed for deciduous tooth root resorption, permanent tooth calcification, and eruption. The extent of tooth root resorption was determined based on AlQahtani’s modified Moorrees et al. method. Tooth calcification was classified based on a modified Demirjian et al. method. Tooth eruption was evaluated based on AlQahtani’s modified Bengston system. The sequence of tooth root resorption, and permanent tooth calcification and eruption were grouped into 19 age categories (from 5–23 years old) in an atlas. The differences between males and females, between maxillary and mandibular teeth, and between right and left teeth were also analysed. There were minimal significant differences of tooth development between males and females, and between the right and left teeth (P > 0.05), while the maxillary and mandibular dental development was significantly different (P < 0.05). The newly developed atlas showed the development of the right side of maxillary and mandibular tooth of combined sex of Indonesian population. Another 34 panoramic radiographs of known-age and sex individuals from Indonesia were assessed using the newly developed Atlas of Dental Development in the Indonesian Population, Ubelaker’s Dental Development Chart, The London Atlas of Human Tooth Development and Eruption by AlQahtani, and the Age Estimation Guide-Modern Australia population by Blenkin-Taylor. Accuracy was assessed by comparing estimated age to actual chronological age using the Bland-Altmand test. Results show that the smallest range of error was found in the Atlas of Dental Development in the Indonesian Population (−0.969 to 1.210 years), followed by The London Atlas of Human Tooth Development and Eruption by AlQahtani (−2.013 to 1.990 years), the Age Estimation Guide-Modern Australia population by Blenkin-Taylor (−2.495 to 2.598 years), and the Dental Development Chart by Ubelaker (−2.960 to 3.289 years). These findings show that the Atlas of Dental Development constructed in this study performs better than the other three methods and presents greater accuracy of age estimation in the Indonesian population.

Key points

• Dental development such as deciduous tooth root resorption, permanent tooth calcification, and tooth eruption can be used to estimate age for forensic purposes.
• The development of the teeth are influenced by genetic, ethnicity, and sex, therefore an age estimation method must be constructed based on the same population.
• There were minimal significant differences in tooth development between male and female, and between right and left teeth, but there was significant difference between maxillary and mandibular teeth.
• The Atlas of Dental Development in the Indonesian Population constructed in this study allowed more accurate age estimation of the Indonesian sample than the other methods tested.

Supplemental data for this article are available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/20961790.2021.1886648.     

未成年人不能适用无期徒刑的误区——以刑法第49条和第17条第3款的关系为中心

未成年人能否适用无期徒刑,理论上的观点是否定说。其理由是刑法第49条规定,未成年人不得适用死刑,其法定最高刑就是无期徒刑;根据刑法第17条第2款,无论从轻或者减轻处罚,都不能适用无期徒刑。司法实践一直都肯定未成年人可以适用无期徒刑,但缺乏正确的理由支持。否定说的错误在于混淆了法定刑和宣告刑的界限,未成年人不得适用死刑,其含义是宣告刑而不是法定刑。决定未成年人的责任时,首先应引用刑法第17条第3款,根据其法定刑,最高可以是死刑,如果不需要判处死刑,就是遵守了刑法第49条的原则。虽然大多数情况下,引用刑法第17条第3款就足够了,但是,在绝对确定的死刑以及情节冲突的情况下,必须引用刑法第49条才能解决问题。由于刑法第49条是个原则性的规定,必须修正才能更好地适用。     

对先进典型宣传热的冷思考--从民警早逝现象谈基层公安队伍管理中亟待解决的问题

近几年,各地公安机关陆续推出许多“累死”在平凡而繁忙的工作岗位上的普通基层民警作为宣传典型,并把这些典型当作公安队伍建设的“成绩”。但是宣传这些典型的同时也暴露出公安基层队伍管理的诸多弊端和漏洞。     

Understanding the Relationship Between Onset Age and Subsequent Offending During Adolescence

This article examines the well-documented relationship between early initiation or onset of criminal behavior and a heightened risk of involvement in offending. Previous research examining this question conducted by Nagin and Farrington (Criminology 30:235–260, 1992a; Criminology 30:501–523, 1992b) used data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development and found that: (1) onset age was correlated with offending involvement; and (2) the correlation could be explained by stable individual differences in the propensity to offend rather than a causal effect of early onset age. In this study, similar analytic methods are applied to data from the Second Philadelphia Birth Cohort. This data set consists of all 13,160 males born in Philadelphia in 1958 who resided in the city continuously from ages 10 to 18, slightly more than half of whom were non-white. Information from each of the youths was collected from schools, juvenile justice agencies, other official sources and surveys. In a model that mimics previous analyses, we initially found that an early age of onset is associated with greater subsequent involvement in delinquent behavior. When unobserved criminal propensity was controlled, however, we found that a late rather than an early onset of delinquency was related to future offending. In finding a state dependent effect for age of onset, our findings are contrary to propensity theory in criminology. In finding that it is late rather early onset which puts youth at risk for future offending, our findings are contrary to developmental/life course theory. Our results are more compatible with traditional criminological theory that is friendly to state dependence processes, though they too have not to date articulated why a late onsetting of offending might be particularly criminogenic.

大鼠挫伤骨骼肌中M1/M2型巨噬细胞时间相关性研究

目的 研究大鼠骨骼肌挫伤后M1/M2型巨噬细胞浸润的动态变化规律结合组织学改变建立损伤时间推断方法.方法 建立大鼠骨骼肌挫伤模型,挫伤后6h、12h、24h、36h、48h、60h、72h、96h、144h、216h、336h为实验组,对照组不进行任何处理.采用HE染色法和免疫荧光多重染色方法观察骨骼肌挫伤后修复规律,...     

关于足底跖区压力分布与年龄相关性的研究

年龄是人体生理机能和运动机能的时间标志。随着年龄的增长,足底跖区压力分布会呈现一定规律的变化,这对于通过足底跖区压力的不同分布推断遗留足迹人的年龄有重要意义。文章利用足底压力分析系统分别采集了20、30、40、50四个年龄段人群的跖区压力数据,对跖区压力分布和年龄的关系进行了统计分析。研究结果表明,足底跖区压力分布与年龄具有明显的相关性,这为利用跖区压力分布推断年龄提供了理论依据和实验支持。     

上、下尖牙髓腔/牙体表面积比值的年龄判定价值研究

目的 通过三维重建测量上、下颌尖牙髓腔/牙体表面积比值(Pulp/Tooth area Ratio,PTR)来推断个体年龄,为临床年龄推断的应用提供科学依据.方法 收集口腔门诊患者年龄在16～65岁200例锥形束CT(Cone beam computed tomography,CBCT)影像资料,以4个尖牙为测量对象并...     

开发老年劳动力市场的必要性与路径研究

在平均预期寿命增加和低生育率的双重作用下,中国快速进入老龄化社会,给劳动力市场和经济持续发展带来了诸多挑战。中国老年劳动力市场具有巨大的潜力,充分利用51-64岁年龄人口将会有效增加我国劳动力供给,实现二次人口红利。在分析当前中国老年劳动力市场潜力及充分借鉴国外经验的基础上,提出了推行延迟退休政策、鼓励老年人灵活就业、加强老年劳动力培训和完善社会服务体系等开发老年劳动力市场的路径。     

A Comparison of Coronary Artery Stenosis Estimates Made by Forensic Pathologists and Medical Students

Previous studies suggest cardiovascular pathologists are less accurate than noncardiovascular pathologists (e.g., clinical pathologists) in estimating the degree of coronary artery stenosis. To further investigate the effect of training on accurate estimation of coronary artery stenosis, we designed a study to compare the accuracy of estimates made by forensic pathologists versus medical students. Six forensic pathologists and twelve medical students each independently examined 24 images of coronary artery cross sections and gave an estimate of the degree of stenosis. When comparing all 24 images, the forensic pathologists had a median difference between the estimated percentage of stenosis and actual percentage of stenosis of −12.380 and the medical students had a median difference of −16.50 (p-value of 0.08542). In estimating the percentage of stenosis, training in forensic pathology does not guarantee significantly improved accuracy compared with medical students. Our study showed no consistent statistically significant difference between estimates given by forensic pathologists and by medical students.