Forecasting Recidivism in Mentally Ill Offenders Released from Prison

Little research has focused on assessing the risk of mentally ill offenders (MIOs) released from state prisons. Here we report findings for 333 mentally ill offenders released from Washington State prisons. Logistic regression identified sets of variables that forecasted felony and violent reconviction as accurately as state-of-the-art risk assessment instruments. Sums of simple recoded versions of these variables predicted reoffense as well as complex logistic regression equations. Five of these 9 variables were found to be relative protective factors. Findings are discussed in terms of the value of stock correctional variables in forecasting risk, the need to base actuarial risk assessments on local data, the importance of protective factors in assessing MIO risk, and the need for dynamic, situational, and clinical variables that can further sharpen predictive accuracy of emergent risk in the community.     

灰色系统理论在犯罪动态预测中的应用

犯罪动态预测,是指采用定量分析方法,依据时间数列资料的自身规律对某些现象未来发展的趋向、水平和程度进行的一种计量和推测。影响犯罪的变量错综复杂,因此反映治安状况的发案数经常上下波动。运用灰色系统理论分析、预测犯罪动态发展变化规律,对科学决策、优化警力部署,实现对犯罪的精准打击都有着极其重大的意义。     

对嫖宿幼女罪的否定性评价

嫖宿幼女罪是我国97刑法妨害社会管理秩序罪中的一个罪名,关于此罪的设定有很多疑问,从是否符合罪责刑相适应原则,是否符合刑法面前人人平等原则,保护的法益是否明确,行为人主观状态和犯罪客观要件的构成标准诸方面来分析,笔者认为此罪不应单独成罪,而应与强奸罪中的奸淫幼女行为归于一罪进行处罚。     

Organizational downsizing and age discrimination litigation: the influence of personnel practices and statistical evidence on litigation outcomes

The present study examined relationships between reduction-in-force (RIF) personnel practices, presentation of statistical evidence, and litigation outcomes. Policy capturing methods were utilized to analyze the components of 115 federal district court opinions involving age discrimination disparate treatment allegations and organizational downsizing. Univariate analyses revealed meaningful links between RIF personnel practices, use of statistical evidence, and judicial verdict. The defendant organization was awarded summary judgment in 73% of the claims included in the study. Judicial decisions in favor of the defendant organization were found to be significantly related to such variables as formal performance appraisal systems, termination decision review within the organization, methods of employee assessment and selection for termination, and the presence of a concrete layoff policy. The use of statistical evidence in ADEA disparate treatment litigation was investigated and found to be a potentially persuasive type of indirect evidence. Legal, personnel, and evidentiary ramifications are reviewed, and a framework of downsizing mechanics emphasizing legal defensibility is presented.     

巨噬细胞在损伤时间推断中的作用

综述了近年来巨噬细胞在损伤时间推断中的法医学作用的研究进展。论述了巨噬细胞源性细胞因子的表达、巨噬细胞表型的变化和巨噬细胞吞噬物的演化等变化与损伤时间的关系,认为巨噬细胞在损伤修复中的特征性变化可作为损伤时间推断的新指标,具有深入研究的必要。     

根据中国汉族女性甲状软骨推算年龄的研究

目的 根据中国汉族女性甲状软骨推算年龄。方法 对69例已知年龄的中国汉族女性甲状软骨进行软X线摄片和(或)普通X线摄片,从甲状软骨的摄片上选择5个与年龄变化关系较为密切的观察部位,每个部位又划分成3至6个等级,然后采用多元线性回归分析法,建立其推算年龄的数学模型。结果运用该方法推算女性甲状软骨年龄,其标准差为1.969,复相关系数为0.984。结论 本方法适用于中国汉族女性甲状软骨年龄推算,其有效年龄范围为18～60岁。     

人口老龄化的机遇与挑战

今年是国际老人年,人口老龄化已成为一个世界性问题。人口老龄化对社会经济发展既有不利的影响,同时也孕育了巨大的商业机会。本文主要分析中国的人口老龄化不同于其他国家的特点和人口老龄化对我国社会经济发展的挑战以及商业机会,指出通过发展老龄产业,将会创造出新的经济增长点。     

新时期青年面临的现代教育异化

新时期的现代教育由于受到时代的冲击,面临着实践操作中的四重异化:学识异化、功能异化、体质异化和心理的异化.新时期的青年在异化的现代教育中应学会正确选择的能力,在激流中站得住脚跟.     

党的思想路线的新发展

“解放思想、实事求是”是邓小平理论的精髓，是新时期党的思想路线。“解放思想、实事求是、与时俱时”是党的十六大报告的精髓，是新世纪新的发展阶段党的思想路线。科学地揭示这一思想路线的内涵，对于提高全党的认识能力，推进社会主义现代化建设事业的快速发展具有重要意义。