中国法官职业化改革的立场和策略

法官职业化是中国司法改革和发展的重大主题之一,处理这样一个宏大而复杂的问题,需要在理想和现状、目标和方法方面进行艰难的立场选择和策略安排。本文选自作者近年来发表的相关文章,以探讨法律职业在法治社会中的合理定位开篇,以《法官法》与法官的职业化进程收尾,其中论及中国法官职业化改造过程中的一系列备受关注的问题。     

双内参基因用于大鼠挫伤肌肉TAB2 mRNA表达量检测

目的比较和分析Rpl32和Rpl13作为单内参基因与两者作为双内参基因,用于检测大鼠挫伤肌肉组织中TAB2 m RNA表达量的结果。方法 78只SD大鼠,随机分为正常对照组(1组)和肌肉损伤组(12组)。采用自由落体法制作大鼠肌肉挫伤模型,分别于4h~48h之间12个时间点取肌肉组织,提取总RNA、合成c DNA、采用real-time q PCR法,以Rpl32和Rpl13作为单独内参基因和二者作为双内参基因检测大鼠肌肉挫伤组织中TAB2 m RNA相对表达量,并计算检测结果的变异系数。结果以Rpl32或Rpl13单独作为内参基因或作为双内参基因,TAB2 m RNA表达随损伤时间总体均呈现降低的变化规律,但使用单内参基因在24h和32h出现极高值,而用双内参基因计算未出现极值,且各结果的变异系数均较小。结论 Rpl32和Rpl13作为双内参基因用于计算TAB2 m RNA相对表达量,可提高分析结果的准确性,在相关实验中建议选择使用。     

Introducing Computed Tomography Standards for Age Estimation of Modern Australian Subadults Using Postnatal Ossification Timings of Select Cranial and Cervical Sites,

Contemporary, population‐specific ossification timings of the cranium are lacking in current literature due to challenges in obtaining large repositories of documented subadult material, forcing Australian practitioners to rely on North American, arguably antiquated reference standards for age estimation. This study assessed the temporal pattern of ossification of the cranium and provides recalibrated probabilistic information for age estimation of modern Australian children. Fusion status of the occipital and frontal bones, atlas, and axis was scored using a modified two‐ to four‐tier system from cranial/cervical DICOM datasets of 585 children aged birth to 10 years. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate maximum‐likelihood estimates between consecutive fusion stages, in conjunction with Bayesian statistics to calculate credible intervals for age estimation. Results demonstrate significant sex differences in skeletal maturation (p < 0.05) and earlier timings in comparison with major literary sources, underscoring the requisite of updated standards for age estimation of modern individuals.     

Effects of Parturition on Pelvic Age Indicators

This research assessed whether parity has a differential effect on age indicators of the pelvis. The data were collected from the William M. Bass Donated Skeletal Collection. Age indicators of the pubic symphysis and auricular surface were assessed using the Todd, Suchey–Brooks, Lovejoy et al., and Buckberry and Chamberlain scoring systems. A transition analysis was conducted, and scoring systems of the pubic symphysis showed the parous female group transitioning between eight and 14 years earlier than the nulliparous female and male groups, and 1 and 7 years earlier using the auricular surface methods. A likelihood ratio test produced significantly different results between parous and nulliparous females using the pubic symphysis (p < 0.01) but not the auricular surface (p > 0.05). Although parous females were inaccurately assessed more often than nulliparous females, no correction of methods is necessary at this time as current standards take parity into account by utilizing a lumped female sample.     

Cutaneous (tPA) and Skeletal (TnI) mRNA as Markers of Aging in Contused Wound

Wound age estimation is one of the most important forensic aspects. Troponin I (TnI) and many cytokines, for example, tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), are involved in wound inflammation and healing. Skeletal (TnI) and cutaneous (tPA) mRNA was detected using real‐time PCR in 25 female albino rats. They were divided into 5 groups: control and 4 injured groups. Injured groups were sacrificed 1, 6, 24, and 30 h after inflicting contused wound. The expression levels of cutaneous (tPA) were decreased significantly at 1, 6, and 30 h after contusion (71.7%, 30.7 and 16.9%), while the expression levels of skeletal (TnI) were increased significantly at 1 and 6 h post‐traumatic, then they gradually decreased until reaching normal levels at 24 h and assumed significantly lower levels at 30 h postcontusion. These results suggested that the determination of cutaneous (tPA) and skeletal (TnI) mRNA levels was useful for wound age estimation.     

Dental Age Estimation: A Test of the Reliability of Correctly Identifying a Subject Over 18 Years of Age Using the Gold Standard of Chronological Age as the Comparator

This study was designed to test the reliability of using the third molars to demarcate between child and adult status. A total of 2000 dental panoramic tomographs were used for assessment of the calculated age using the 8‐stage system of tooth development and applied to all four third molars. The LL8 was also assessed using this 8‐stage system. For each tooth development stage, the Normal distribution and percentile summary data were estimated. The calculated dental age compared with the chronological age was statistically significantly different (p < 0.001) for both females and males giving underestimates of the true age. Comparison of single tooth dental age and chronological age was only slightly different. The most important finding is that the assignment to above or below the 18‐year threshold, in the age range 17 years to 19 years, could be wrong on up to 50% of occasions.     

A Metric Comparison of Predictive Hot Spot Techniques and RTM

There are numerous hot spot mapping techniques that can be used in research and in practice for predicting future crime locations. Due to differences in the varying techniques, metrics were developed to compare the accuracy and precision of these techniques. The predictive accuracy index (PAI) and recapture rate index (RRI) were used to assess six different hot spot techniques. Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Crime, Nearest Neighbor Hierarchical, Kernel Density Estimation, and Risk Terrain Modeling were the general techniques compared in relation to their PAI and RRI values for short-term and long-term prediction of robberies. The results of the study were discussed with an emphasis on the utility of using multiple techniques jointly for analysis.     

The differential predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory: the role of gender

Most criminogenic risk assessments are developed and empirically validated on samples of boys or samples comprised of mostly boys, and subsequently applied to girls. Using a sample of male (n = 1,267) and female (n = 453) probationers, the purpose of the current study was to examine the potentially differential performance of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) and the instrument’s eight domains for female juvenile offenders. Findings revealed gender differences in the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI in which girls scored significantly higher on the risk assessment, but recidivated at significantly lower rates than boys two years following the administration of the assessment. The predictive validity of the instrument was impacted by these gender differences in which the YLS/CMI total score was a better predictor of recidivism for boys (area under the curve (AUC) = .623) than girls (AUC = .565). The only subscales that significantly predicted recidivism for girls were the family (AUC = .607) and personality (AUC = .572) domains, whereas all of the subscales significantly predicted recidivism for boys. Directions for future research as well as gender-responsive assessment, programming, and policy implications are discussed.     

利用肱骨影像学特征推断年龄

在法庭科学中根据骨骼判定年龄的方法有：根据骨骼的大体形态来判定、根据骨组织学的变化来判定,还有根据骨骼的影像学特征来判定年龄等等。本文分别从干骺融合时间和肱骨骨髓腔变化两方面对法医人类学在肱骨X光片推断年龄方面的相关研究进展作一概略的介绍。     

Characteristics of Youth Remaining in Foster Care Through Age 19: A Pre- and Post-Policy Cohort Analysis of California Data

This study examined factors associated with youth remaining in extended foster care. Cohorts of youth in care in California at age 17 years were defined for the period from 2003–2012. Multivariable generalized linear models documented factors associated with remaining in care through age 19. Findings indicate that: a) the population of youth in care at age 17 has declined over time; b) youth in care at age 17 in 2012 were qualitatively different from those a decade earlier; c) a larger proportion of youth who do not exit to permanency are remaining in extended foster care; and d) although the characteristics of youth who remain in foster care as non-minor dependents continue to vary relative to those who age out, differences have diminished. Findings highlight the potential to target subgroups of youth who may benefit from the extension of care but are remaining in care at lower rates.