Women’s age at last childbearing and its determinants: a case study of Antwerp (Flanders,Belgium) on the basis of the multi-source COR* historical sample

Declines in the age at last childbearing in the first demographic transition reflected conscious changes in fertility behaviour during that period, in particular efforts to limit the total number of children. Such fertility limitation behaviour was the net result of ‘cultural causal factors’ on the one hand and ‘structural and economic causal factors’ on the other hand. This paper analyses the evolution of women’s age at last childbearing by reconstructing women’s life histories based on data from the multi-source COR* historical sample for Antwerp in the period 1846–1920. The paper also assesses the causes of this evolution through a number of theoretically grounded structural/economic, cultural and life course determinants, placing these concepts in a macro-micro framework of methodological individualism. For this purpose, in the first place a Kaplan-Meier analysis is applied to 10-year birth cohorts; a proportional hazard model is also applied to three different birth cohorts (mothers born before 1840; born in the period 1840–1859; and born after 1860); and a range of cultural and life course determinants are analysed, including women’s literacy status, marriage witness characteristics, the seasonality of marriages and births, and birth histories. The analysis confirms the decline in the age at last childbearing especially in the late cohort, and also highlights inter-cohort differences caused by cultural and life course determinants.     

牛趋化因子受体4基因的克隆表达及序列分析

采用RT-PCR技术,从被刺激诱导的牛外周血单个核细胞(PBMC)中克隆了牛趋化因子受体4(CXCR4)全长基因,并将CXCR4基因和CXCR4基因N端1～126 bp(CXCR4~(42aa))片段分别亚克隆到原核表达载体pGEX-4T-1中,命名为pGEX-4T-1-CXCR4、pGEX-4T-1-CXCR4~(42aa).获得重组菌株后,采用不同的IPTG浓度、不同诱导时间、不同温度和不同培养基等组合诱导表达这两种重组菌,其中pGEX-4T-1-CX-CR4~(42aa)重组菌获得了表达,并在37℃、IPTG浓度为0.8 mmol/L、诱导6 h时表达量最大,约占菌体总蛋白的45%,目的蛋白主要以包涵体的形式存在;而pGEX-4T-1-CXCR4重组菌未表达出目的蛋白.     

未来二十年辽宁流动人口犯罪的发展变化预测

未来二十年,辽宁流动人口犯罪将继续保持增长势头,上升比率会随政府相关政策调整有所下降;侵财类案件仍在各类案件中处于高发势头,伤害类案件会有所上升;团伙犯罪及重大、恶性案件的构成比例将有所增加。面对这种发展趋势,形势不容乐观。     

中国经济发展态势和调整转型——2013年第1季度宏观经济分析

今年1季度中国GDP增长7.7%,工业增加值增长9.5%,CPI上涨2.4%,与希望回升的预期相反,均比上年同期和上季度要低,但增长回落正是经济调整转型之机。M2余额超过百万亿元,不能仅从货币政策操作考察是否存在货币超发,而要深入一步,看看政府投资创造货币的特殊机制。房地产调控中的博弈,一方面说明政策设计存在缺陷;另一方面也与特殊的货币创造机制有关。撤销铁道部,组建铁路总公司,实现了组织机构上的政企分离,但经济上仍合在一起。以债务处理为契机,明晰产权安排和经营责任,进一步推进铁路改革。     

人口年龄结构如何影响住房财富效应？——基于家庭微观视角的分析

人口年龄结构变动与高房价均为我国当前经济社会的重要特征,研究人口年龄结构对住房财富效应的影响对于房价调控、释放居民消费潜力具有较大的现实意义。基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,实证检验人口年龄结构对住房财富效应的影响,结果发现：老年抚养比和幼年抚养比升高显著增强了住房财富效应,且幼年抚养比升高对住房财富效应的影响更大;进一步,老年抚养比和幼年抚养比对拥有大产权房产家庭和低房价收入比家庭的住房财富效应有显著正向影响,但对拥有小产权房产家庭和高房价收入比家庭的影响不显著;并且,幼年抚养比对家庭住房财富效应的正向影响在高房价地区更为显著,老年抚养比对其的正向影响则在低房价区域更显著。     

Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases

The completion of the third molar roots has played an important role in ascertaining whether individuals may be at or over a legal threshold of age, often taken as 18 years. This study demonstrates that root apex completion in the third molar is relatively uninformative regarding the threshold of age 18 years in a sample of 1184 males, where mean age‐of‐attainment of root apex completion for third mandibular molars is about 19.4 years. This paper also considers the legal age threshold problem for cases where the third mandibular molar is not completely formed, and outlines the use of parametric models and Bayes’ factors to evaluate dental evidence in statistically appropriate ways. It attempts to resolve confusion over age‐within‐stage versus age‐of‐attainment, likelihood ratios versus other diagnostic tests, and prior odds for a case versus the prior density for an age distribution.     

Bone Area Histomorphometry

Quantifying the amount of cortical bone loss is one variable used in histological methods of adult age estimation. Measurements of cortical area tend to be subjective and additional information regarding bone loss is not captured considering cancellous bone is disregarded. We describe whether measuring bone area (cancellous + cortical area) rather than cortical area may improve histological age estimation for the sixth rib. Mid‐shaft rib cross‐sections (n = 114) with a skewed sex distribution were analyzed. Ages range from 16 to 87 years. Variables included: total cross‐sectional area, cortical area, bone area, relative bone area, relative cortical area, and endosteal area. Males have larger mean total cross‐sectional area, bone area, and cortical area than females. Females display a larger mean endosteal area and greater mean relative measure values. Relative bone area significantly correlates with age. The relative bone area variable will provide researchers with a less subjective and more accurate measure than cortical area.     

A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction

Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0–12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation.     

Application of MALDI‐TOF MS for Estimating the Postmortem Interval in Rat Muscle Samples

Estimating the postmortem interval (PMI) is very important in the forensic sciences. Although many approaches have been used for estimating the PMI, accurate PMI calculations are still difficult. In this study, four Sprague Dawley (SD) rats were sacrificed by suffocation, and muscle samples were collected by dissection at various time intervals (0, 48, 96, and 144 h) after death. All samples were probed using matrix‐assisted laser desorption/ionization time‐of‐flight mass spectrometry (MALDI‐TOFMS) to obtain molecular images and data for principal component analysis (PCA). The results showed that the peaks at m/z 1511, 1543, 1564, 1586 clearly decreased in intensity from 0 to 144 h postmortem and that the time groups were separated from each other on the PCA score plot. The prediction model showed high recognition capability (95.93%) and cross‐validation (83.72%). Our work suggests that MALDI‐TOF MS can be used to determine the PMI.     

上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径与年龄的关系

目的探讨汉族人上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径与年龄的关系。方法 2014年11月~2015年11月间,在一家三甲医院数据库中选择420例汉族人的口腔锥形束CT资料,根据年龄将所有研究对象分为6个组别(8~12岁、13~17岁、18~22岁、23~27岁、28~32岁、33~37岁,每组70例,男女各15例。对所有研究对象上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径进行测量,取釉牙骨质界距根尖3/4处,分析上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径与年龄的关系,比较男女上颌中切牙牙根直径。结果男性与女性上颌中切牙牙根直径比较具有差异显著性(P0.05);男性与女性上颌中切牙牙根管径比较具有差异显著性(P0.05);男性与女性上颌中切牙牙根直径与牙根管径之比比较具有差异显著性(P0.05);不同性别间上颌中切牙牙根直径与牙根管径之比与年龄具有一定的相关性(R~2=0.623,P0.05)。结论汉族人上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径与年龄的变化具有相关性,且男性根管管径减小趋势比女性更高。