Surface Curvature of Pelvic Joints from Three Laser Scanners: Separating Anatomy from Measurement Error

Recent studies have reported that quantifying symphyseal and auricular surface curvature changes on 3D models acquired by laser scanners has a potential for age estimation. However, no tests have been carried out to evaluate the repeatability of the results between different laser scanners. 3D models of the two pelvic joints were generated using three laser scanners (Custom, Faro, and Minolta). The surface curvature, the surface area, and the distance between co‐registered meshes were investigated. Close results were found for surface areas (differences between 0.3% and 2.4%) and for distance deviations (average <20 μm, SD <200 μm). The curvature values were found to be systematically biased between different laser scanners, but still showing similar trends with increasing phases/scores. Applying a smoothing factor to the 3D models, it was possible to separate anatomy from the measurement error of each instrument, so that similar curvature values could be obtained (p < 0.05) independent of the specific laser scanner.     

Gender Determination of Adult Individuals by Three‐Dimensional Modeling of Canines

Gender determination is a fundamental issue in forensic anthropology. Many techniques based on bone and dental remains have been proposed. It is not always possible to implement the techniques using bones, but teeth are often perfectly preserved. It has been demonstrated that the canine has the greatest sexual dimorphism, and the aim of this work was to provide an easy and accurate dental technique for determining the gender in the absence of other skeletal elements. The sample was composed of 210 CT scans with four healthy canines. The 840 canines were modeled using MIMICS^® 10.01 software. The total volume of each tooth was determined. Seven mathematical models were determined by binary logistic regressions and ranked in order of relative performance. The seven proposed predictive models thus performed (0.910 ≤ AUC ≤ 0.938), with overall rates of correct predictions between 82.38 and 85.24%. The 4‐canine model is the most powerful for predicting the gender.     

CRIME DIVERSITY*

Large geographic areas should host a greater diversity of crime compared with small geographic areas. This proposition is reasonable given that larger geographic areas should not only support more crime but also contain a greater diversity of criminogenic settings. This article uses a neutral model to characterize crime richness as a function of area. The model starts with two neutral assumptions: 1) that all environments are statistically equivalent and exert no influence on what types of crimes occur there; and 2) that different crime types occur independently of one another. The model produces rigorous predictions for the mean and variance in crime richness with increasing area. Tests of the model against a sample of 172,055 crimes occurring in Los Angeles during the year 2013 are qualitatively consistent with neutral expectations. The model is made quantitatively consistent by constant scaling. Resampling experiments show that at most 20 percent of the mean crime richness is attributable to nonrandom clustering and assortment of crime types. A modified neutral model allowing for variation crime concentration is consistent with observed variance in crime richness. The results suggest that very general and largely neutral laws may be driving crime diversity in space.     

Economic and Sociological Correlates of Suicides: Multilevel Analysis of the Time Series Data in the United Kingdom

For the effects of social integration on suicides, there have been different and even contradictive conclusions. In this study, the selected economic and social risks of suicide for different age groups and genders in the United Kingdom were identified and the effects were estimated by the multilevel time series analyses. To our knowledge, there exist no previous studies that estimated a dynamic model of suicides on the time series data together with multilevel analysis and autoregressive distributed lags. The investigation indicated that unemployment rate, inflation rate, and divorce rate are all significantly and positively related to the national suicide rates in the United Kingdom from 1981 to 2011. Furthermore, the suicide rates of almost all groups above 40 years are significantly associated with the risk factors of unemployment and inflation rate, in comparison with the younger groups.     

Auricular Surface Aging: Comparing Two Methods that Assess Morphological Change in the Ilium with Bayesian Analyses

Modern standards in forensic anthropology require rigorous testing and evaluation of methods used for aging skeletal remains. Age estimation has been criticized for bias, inaccuracy, and population specificity; issues which are minimized by the application of Bayesian methodology. Using Bayesian statistics, we compare the Lovejoy et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol, 68, 1985, 15) (original) and Buckberry and Chamberlain (Am J Phys Anthropol, 119, 2002, 231) (revised) auricular surface aging methods. Transition analysis parameters derived from American males (n = 372), in combination with a Thai male (N = 37) informative prior, statistically model age in Portuguese males (n = 221). Cumulative binomial tests assess the accuracy of the generated age ranges. Overall, the application of transition analysis and Bayesian statistics significantly improved age estimation with both methods (also outperforming Suchey‐Brooks pubic symphysis aging). Moreover, the accuracy of the original method was low without statistical modeling, whereas the revised method can be applied accurately without further statistical analysis. Additionally, reference tables for aging Portuguese males are provided.     

Traits and states at work: lure,risk and personality as predictors of occupational crime

This study linked individual characteristics to proximate factors operating in the moment of decision-making to predict occupational crime. We distinguished between people’s task-related conscience, as embodied by the Conscientiousness personality trait, and a more general moral conscience as embodied by the Honesty-Humility trait, hypothesizing that both traits are differentially related to the way situational characteristics, such as costs and benefits, are perceived. We operationalized the concept of ‘felt lure’ emanating from the benefits of a crime, defining it as an affective state that tempts people to commit a criminal act, and examined it next to perceived risk of sanction as a proximate predictor of criminal choice. In line with our predictions, Conscientiousness and Honesty-Humility significantly predicted occupational criminal choice as did felt lure and perceived risk. Specifically, perceived risk and felt lure mediated the relations between Conscientiousness and Honesty-Humility on the one hand, and occupational criminal choice on the other.     

A Bonfire of the Regulations,or Business as Usual? The UK Labour Market and the Political Economy of Brexit

Employment and labour market regulation initially appeared as one of the solid red lines in the UK's renegotiation of the country's place in the EU. The basic argument is that the UK's more deregulated labour market would sit uneasily in the more organised models, based on statutory instruments or collective bargaining, found on the continent. While there is a legitimate problem here, EU employment regulations appear manageable from the point of view of business, while unions see them as important tools for socially responsible economic restructuring. Most of UK employment case law is now deeply entangled with EU law; labour market regulations have, on the whole, become part of the way of doing business in the Single Market; and a simple cost–benefit analysis appears impossible because some costs are not quantifiable and the costs of others are reduced when taken as a bundle. Labour unions agree that transposition of European law needs to be done taking into account local sensitivities, while internationally oriented companies do not see EU regulations on the whole as detrimental to business. Importantly, though, the costs and benefits of EU employment regulations are not symmetrically distributed across different companies: large companies are better able to reap the rewards and accommodate the costs of operating in the Single Market than smaller companies.     

Consenting to Exclude? Empirical Patterns of Democracy and Immigrant Integration Policy

Studies explaining immigrant integration policies commonly focus on single aspects such as right-populist party politics or the immigration legacy of a country. This neglects the overall character of the democratic system within which policy-making unfolds. Research on empirical patterns of democracy, in turn, suggests that consensus democracies pursue ‘kinder and gentler’ policies and outperform majoritarian democracies in terms of minority representation. The article tests whether this conclusion holds for the specific group of immigrant minorities and analyses the relationship between patterns of democracy and immigrant integration policy using a new dataset on empirical democracies in 30 European and North American countries. Simultaneously estimating the character of democratic systems in terms of power dispersion and its effect on integration policies, the analysis reveals a distinct ‘Janus-faced’ pattern: while proportional power dispersion tends to coincide with more inclusive immigrant integration policies, pronounced veto structures tend to foster exclusion.     

Governments,decentralisation, and the risk of electoral defeat

In the last three decades several countries around the world have transferred authority from their national to their regional governments. However, not all their regions have been empowered to the same degree and important differences can be observed between and within countries. Why do some regions obtain more power than others? Current literature argues that variation in the redistribution of power and resources between regions is introduced by demand. Yet these explanations are conditional on the presence of strong regionalist parties or territorial cleavages. This article proposes instead a theory that links the government’s risk of future electoral defeat with heterogeneous decentralisation, and tests its effects using data from 15 European countries and 141 regions. The results provide evidence that parties in government protect themselves against the risk of electoral defeat by selectively targeting decentralisation towards regions in which they are politically strong. The findings challenge previous research that overestimates the importance of regionalist parties while overlooking differences between regions.     

Investment sensitivity to interest rates in an uncertain context: is a positive relationship possible?

This paper shows a non-linear relationship between investment and interest rates under uncertainty. Since the interest rate’s variance is positively related to the investment’s value (through the discount factor) and, generally, is also positively related to the interest rate’s level, then, at the same time, a negative (classical) and a positive (through the interest rate’s variance) relationship links interest rates to investment. Hence, an ultimate and even positive relationship between investment and interest rates’ (expected) level may occur. A specific model is proposed and the conditions upon which the positive effect occurs are derived. Some estimates are also proposed.