比较刑事诉讼法的研究进路：从划分模式到探求共性

目前在世界范围内刑事诉讼法比较研究的主流进路是划分刑事诉讼程序模式。达马斯卡的审问/对抗模式和阶层/同位模式是这种进路的代表。唯模式论者往往关注刑事诉讼程序的差异而忽视它们的相似之处。本文参考英格拉姆对于不同法域刑事诉讼程序共性的探讨,提出比较刑事诉讼法还应采用探求共性的进路,寻求相互理解的比较。内容提要：目前在世界范围内刑事诉讼法比较研究的主流进路是划分刑事诉讼程序模式。达马斯卡的审问/对抗模式和阶层/同位模式是这种进路的代表。唯模式论者往往关注刑事诉讼程序的差异而忽视它们的相似之处。本文参考英格拉姆对于不同法域刑事诉讼程序共性的探讨,提出比较刑事诉讼法还应采用探求共性的进路,寻求相互理解的比较。     

Methodologies of election forecasting: Calling the 2010 UK “hung parliament”

Election forecasting has experienced considerable growth as a subfield within political science. Research work on United Kingdom elections has been cutting edge here. The recent 2010 general election afforded the opportunity for a trial of different forecasting methodologies. These efforts are showcased in this volume, and include standard, and not-so-standard, statistical models. Overall, these models perform well, foreseeing the unprecedented outcome of a “hung parliament”, as most pollsters and pundits did not. Moreover, they achieved this accuracy with forecasts well in advance of the election itself.     

维护和发展广西“四个模范”的光荣

广西之所以堪称民族团结的模范、维护统一的模范、维护稳定的模范,是我国民族关系‘三个离不开’的模范,主要是应归功于党和国家正确的民族政策;广西壮族自治区各级党委、政府认真贯彻落实党的民族政策,脚踏实地地带领全区共同团结奋斗、共同繁荣发展;兄弟省区、兄弟民族的无私、大力的支援;广西各族人民对中华民族的坚定不移的认同。要维护和发展广西"四个模范",必须坚持和完善民族区域自治制度,深入贯彻落实科学发展观,推进广西经济社会又好又快发展,正确处理各类社会矛盾,加强宣传教育,推动民族交流,巩固和发展平等、团结、互助、和谐的社会主义民族关系。     

The determinants of value of incoming cross-border mergers & acquisitions in European transition countries

This research aims to determine variables that affect the aggregate value of incoming cross-border M&As in European transitional countries. Dynamic panel models have been estimated using Arellano and Bond GMM estimator for period between year 1994 and 2008. The ratio of the total value of cross-border M&A to GDP of the country is the dependent variable. Independent variables include following indicators: lagged value of cross-border M&A to GDP, lagged GDP per capita, lagged GDP growth, inflation, interest rate spread, lagged private credit to GDP ratio, market capitalization to GDP ratio, lagged rule of law and lagged control of corruption.     

PARTICIPATION AND FREQUENCY DURING CRIMINAL CAREERS ACROSS THE LIFE SPAN*

Recent advances and debates surrounding general and developmental as well as static and dynamic theories of crime can be traced to the 1986 National Academy of Science's Report on criminal careers and the discussion it generated. A key point of contention has been regarding the interpretation of the age–crime curve. According to Gottfredson and Hirschi (1986), the decline in the age–crime curve in early adulthood reflects decreasing individual offending frequency (λ) after the peak. Blumstein et al. (1986) claimed that the decline in the aggregate age–crime curve also could be attributable to the termination of criminal careers, and the average value of l could stay constant (or increase with age) for those offenders who remain active after that peak. Using data from the Criminal Career and Life Course Study—including information on criminal convictions across 60 years of almost 5,000 persons convicted in the Netherlands—and applying a two-part growth model that explicitly distinguishes between participation and frequency, the study outlined in this article assessed the participation–frequency debate. Results suggest that the decline in the age–crime curve in early adulthood reflects both decreasing individual offending participation and frequency after the peak, that the probabilities of participation and frequency are significantly related at the individual level, and that sex and marriage influence both participation and frequency.     

Market structures,political surroundings,and merger remedies: an empirical investigation of the EC’s decisions

This paper aims to build and empirically evaluate a discrete choice model of merger remedies as a basis for policy analysis. The database consists of 229 merger cases accepted in Phase I or Phase II of the European merger process between 1990 and 2005. We focus on the following question: Which merging firms’ characteristics lead the European Commission to decide whether to require conditional acceptance? Although a lot of empirical studies have been carried out these last years, ours is distinguished by at least two original features. First, we explore determinant factors of the Commission’s decisions with a neural network model differentiating cases accepted with or without remedies (either structural or behavioral). Secondly, we implement three multinomial logit models. We find that variables related to high market power lead more frequently to a remedy outcome, no matter the phase. Innovative industries such as energy, transportation and communications positively affect the probability of a behavioral remedy. Lastly, former Competition Commissioner Mario Monti’s policy appears to be pro-remedy, i.e. seeking concessions from merging parties.     

Impunity or Punishment? An Analysis of Criminal Investigation into Kidnapping,Terrorism and Embezzlement in Colombia

This paper aims to identify the variables that contribute to explain the current ability of the Colombian criminal system to resolve cases of kidnapping, terrorism and embezzlement. In order to achieve this goal a sample of cold cases and sentenced files were analysed in three main cities of the country. The success of a criminal investigation was divided into three stages: a) the identification of at least one suspect per case; b) the accusation and putting on trial of the suspect; and c) his/her conviction. Econometric techniques were used to identify the criminal investigation variables associated to each of the three successes. Variables such as the evidence and investigative practices used by the judicial police, the attorneys and the courts were taken into account. The results of this study have important implications for criminal investigation and crime policy in Colombia and in the region.     

甲基苯丙胺染毒动物模型的建立与评价

苯丙胺类中枢兴奋剂是21世纪最广泛滥用的毒品.甲基苯丙胺(methamphetamine,MA)的中毒机理、精神依赖性、耐药性以及治疗药物的研发是当前研究的热点.MA中毒动物模型的建立是研究MA相关问题的基础.MA动物模型建立的规范化和标准化对以后MA的进一步研究奠定了实验基础.本文结合国内外关于MA中毒动物的文献资料,通过对MA急性、亚急性以及慢性中毒动物模型研究的论述.对造模原理、造模方法 和评价标准进行了探讨,并指出建立以动物为主体的MA中毒模型来进行相关实验研究的必要性以及重要性.     

Temporal Linkages in Violent and Nonviolent Criminal Activity

Research on the temporal distribution of criminal behavior has highlighted two distinct mechanisms—population heterogeneity and state dependence. Most of this work indicates that long-term patterns of criminal offending reflect a mixture of stable individual differences and the causal effect of life events and experiences. Yet several ambiguities remain. Among the most important of these problems is whether both population heterogeneity and state dependence processes operate for different types of offending. We use longitudinal official record and self-report data for violent and non-violent offending activity from the Rochester Youth Development Study to address these ambiguities.