The Limits to Evidence‐Based Policy: Evidence,Emotion and Criminal Justice1

While ‘evidence‐based’ or ‘rationalist’ approaches to criminal policy may appeal to technocrats, bureaucrats and a number of academics, they often fail to compete successfully with the affective approaches to law and order policies which resonate with the public and which appear to meet deep‐seated psychological needs. They also often fail to recognise that ‘policy’ and ‘politics’ are related concepts and that debates about criminal justice are played out in broader arenas than the academy, the bureau or the agency. To be successful, penal reform must take account of the emotions people feel in the face of wrongdoing. Further, successful reform must take into account changes in public ‘mood’ or emotions over time and be sensitive to different political and social cultures. This article argues that criminal justice policies are more likely to be adopted if, in addition to the gathering and presentation of evidence, they recognise and deal with the roles of emotions, symbols, faith, belief and religion in the criminal justice system. It also recognises that evidence alone is unlikely to be the major determinant of policy outcomes and that the creation and successful implementation of policy also requires extensive engagement and evidence‐based dialogue with interested and affected parties. This necessitates a different kind of modelling for evidence‐based policy processes.     

Quantitative Analysis of the Morphological Changes of the Pubic Symphyseal Face and the Auricular Surface and Implications for Age at Death Estimation

Age estimation methods are often based on the age‐related morphological changes of the auricular surface and the pubic bone. In this study, a mathematical approach to quantify these changes has been tested analyzing the curvature variation on 3D models from CT and laser scans. The sample consisted of the 24 Suchey–Brooks (SB) pubic bone casts, 19 auricular surfaces from the Buckberry and Chamberlain (BC) “recording kit” and 98 pelvic bones from the Terry Collection (Smithsonian Institution). Strong and moderate correlations between phases and curvature were found in SB casts (ρ 0.60–0.93) and BC “recording kit” (ρ 0.47–0.75), moderate and weak correlations in the Terry Collection bones (pubic bones: ρ 0.29–0.51, auricular surfaces: ρ 0.33–0.50) but associated with large individual variability and overlap of curvature values between adjacent decades. The new procedure, requiring no expert judgment from the operator, achieved similar correlations that can be found in the classic methods.     

Legislative Committees as Uncertainty Reduction Devices in Multiparty Parliamentary Democracies

Most research on committees in multiparty legislatures in parliamentary democracies focuses on their role in solving intra-cabinet delegation problems. Using a straightforward spatial model, this article discusses how committees can also solve uncertainty problems that arise in settings characterised by unstable coalitions, weak governmental agenda control and a lack of government change. In order to explore empirically how committees solve these problems, the article focuses on the success (and later decline) over the last 30 years of the sede legislativa, a law-making procedure that formalises ‘universalism’ in Italian legislative committees. The statistical results largely confirm the theoretical expectations.     

Deterrence and delinquency: An analysis of individual data

Is commission of crime deterred by fear of arrest? Individual self-reported data on the commission of three crimes are analyzed in relation to perceived probabilities of arrest for more than 3000 French-speaking teenagers of the Montreal school population in 1974. The crimes are shoplifting, drug use, and stealing an item worth more than $50.00. In addition to the effect of the individuals' perceptions of the probability of arrest for the three crimes, age, sex, and previous arrest record are also taken into account. The data are all categorical. A multivariate log-linear probability model is estimated in order to test hypotheses concerning the direction and magnitude of bivariate associations among the variables. We conclude that there is clear evidence of a negative association between the subjective probability of arrest for each crime and the frequency of commission of that crime. We also find some negative cross-effects of the perceptions of the probability of arrest for one type of crime on the commission of another, holding constant the direct effects.     

Recidivism among drug offenders: A survival analysis of the effects of offender characteristics,type of offense,and two types of intervention

The determinants of recidivism are increasingly becoming the focus of public concern. This study explores the relative effect of type of intervention, offender characteristics, and type of incident offense on time to a petition to revoke probation and time to a probation revocation. Our analysis of intervention effects includes both parametric and nonparametric estimation procedures. Estimating five distributional forms of survival and a proportional hazard model for each measure of recidivism, the analysis indicates no difference in the effect of a program of drug monitoring and treatment, compared to drug monitoring only, for either of the two measures of recidivism. In addition, findings indicate that younger offenders and African American offenders have a shorter time to a petition to revoke probation. We also found a reduced time to failure for a probation revocation for African American offenders and offenders with a prior arrest record. Our findings offer empirical support for a reconsideration of the type of intervention effective in deterring offenders while on probation.     

Micro-models of criminal careers: A synthesis of the criminal careers and life course approaches via semiparametric mixed poisson regression models,with empirical applications

Much recent research and debate in criminology have centered around how to conceptualize and model longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal acts committed by individuals. Two approaches dominate this controversy. One originates in thecriminal careers paradigm, which emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offending groups in the general population—thus leading to a distinction between incidence and prevalence of criminal offending, a focus on the onset, persistence, and desistence of criminal careers, and the possibility that criminals are a distinctive group with constant high rates of offending. Another approach places criminal events within a broader context ofstudies of the life course by explicitly substituting the conceptualization of “social events” for that of “criminal careers”. With respect to analytical models, this approach emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offenders with respect to order of criminal events from first to second to higher orders and thus suggests an analysis of the “risks” or “hazards” of offending by order of offense. Some extant commentaries on the criminal careers and life course approaches to conceptualizing and modeling longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal events committed by individuals have emphasized their differences and incompatibilities. In contrast, we apply recently developed semiparametric mixed Poisson regression techniques to develop conditions under which the two conceptual/modeling approaches are formally equivalent. We also modify the semiparametric mixed Poisson regression model of criminal careers to incorporate information on order of the delinquent/criminal event and develop an empirical application. This modification demonstrates the complementarity of the criminal careers and life course approaches, even though they have somewhat different foci.     

论道德主体及主体性

道德主体及主体性的深入探讨对我国社会主义精神文明和现代化建设具有重大的现实意义,是构建社会主义道德规范和体系的重要途径。当前,为了实现中华民族的伟大复兴,必须高扬社会主义道德的主体性,完善、发展社会主义道德新风尚,净化党风,净化社会风气,提高全民族的道德意识。在民族优秀道德基础上,融合社会主义市场经济的客观要求,确立具有时代特色的邓小平道德范式。     

建构主义学习理论大学英语教学设计和教学模式范式研究

建构主义学习理论既强调学习者的认知主体作用,又不忽视教师的指导作用。建构主义学习理论教学设计是与学生的学习环境相适应的全新的教学设计;与建构主义学习理论教学设计范式相适应的目前已开发出的、比较成熟的教学范式为：支架式教学、抛锚式教学和随机进入教学。     

Evaluating the Cultural Fit of an Approach for Practice Model Development for Tribal Child Welfare

Three American Indian tribes utilized Business Process Mapping (BPM) as a tool to develop culturally-based tribal child welfare practice models. This study employed a multi-methods design to evaluate the cultural fit of BPM when used in tribal settings. Findings indicated that although programs considered BPM a “mainstream” intervention, each still found the process to be an effective means of creating models reflecting child welfare practice within tribal cultural contexts. Findings further suggested that BPM can, however, benefit from examination of how it might better articulate cultural values and norms, as well as differences between tribal and mainstream child welfare approaches.     

Multicultural Pedagogy Development in Modern Education

Although there is a growing interest in the influence of multicultural issues in education, there is still a lack of theoretically well-grounded comparative analyses of educational systems. Topics such as problems and prospects involved in the development of multicultural pedagogy are broadly discussed, but often suffer from an insufficient number of empirical and comparative studies. The lack of systemic or unified research in the field of multicultural education has reduced multicultural pedagogy within education to the simple implementation of individual training courses. As a result, multicultural pedagogy is generally oriented only toward the needs of a single country, rather than toward a system of multicultural interests that takes into account the interests of multiple countries. As a result, we must develop methods that will enable the realization of true multicultural pedagogy. The leading objective should be, firstly, the consideration of the individual as a subject of culture in a multicultural environment with a goal to determine the significance of the formation of an individual＇s multicultural qualities; secondly, the development of an integrative approach. Comparative studies are taking the lead in addressing this goal and recommending specific steps to incorporate multicultural pedagogy more systematically into an existing education system in every country. This paper addresses these problems by discussing theoretical questions behind the development of the ideological basis of multicultural pedagogy.