Fingerprint error rate on close non‐matches

The accuracy of fingerprint identifications is critically important to the administration of criminal justice. Accuracy is challenging when two prints from different sources have many common features and few dissimilar features. Such print pairs, known as close non‐matches (CNMs), are increasingly likely to arise as ever‐growing databases are searched with greater frequency. In this study, 125 fingerprint agencies completed a mandatory proficiency test that included two pairs of CNMs. The false‐positive error rates on the two CNMs were 15.9% (17 out of 107, 95% C.I.: 9.5%, 24.2%) and 28.1% (27 out of 96, 95% C.I.: 19.4%, 38.2%), respectively. These CNM error rates are (a) inconsistent with the popular notion that fingerprint evidence is nearly infallible, and (b) larger than error rates reported in leading fingerprint studies. We conclude that, when the risk of CNMs is high, the probative value of a reported fingerprint identification may be severely diminished due to an elevated false‐positive error risk. We call for additional CNM research, including a replication and expansion of the present study using a representative selection of CNMs from database searches.     

刺激犬体表感受器对心脏表面神经元和心脏功能的影响

为了给“抑制死”提供实验根据和理论依据,模拟“抑制死”的体表刺激,用3.0kg触压麻醉开胸犬的心前区、剑突下,同步记录大右心房神经节丛神经元内单位放电的频数及心脏变时。变力性反应。静脉给入普来洛尔（1mg／kg）或阿托品（1mg／kg）及心脏急性会神经支配后,重复上述刺激。结果显示：触压犬心前区可直接引起心脏表面神经节丛内的副交感神经元兴奋,窦房结自律性降低,引起负性频率作用;在此基础上刺激兴奋心脏表面交感神经元可诱发室性心律失常。提示刺激心前区、剑突下引起的“抑制死”,不仅与迷走神经对心脏的抑制有关,可能还与交感神经元对心室的兴奋有关。     

The Reliability of Pattern Classification in Bloodstain Pattern Analysis,Part 1: Bloodstain Patterns on Rigid Non‐absorbent Surfaces

This study was designed to produce the first baseline measure of reliability in bloodstain pattern classification. A panel of experienced bloodstain pattern analysts examined over 400 spatter patterns on three rigid non‐absorbent surfaces. The patterns varied in spatter type and extent. A case summary accompanied each pattern that either contained neutral information, information to suggest the correct pattern (i.e., was positively biasing), or information to suggest an incorrect pattern (i.e., was negatively biasing). Across the variables under examination, 13% of classifications were erroneous. Generally speaking, where the pattern was more difficult to recognize (e.g., limited staining extent or a patterned substrate), analysts became more conservative in their judgment, opting to be inconclusive. Incorrect classifications increased as a function of the negatively biasing contextual information. The implications of the findings for practice are discussed.     

The Contribution of the “Dutch School” in Public Finance to the Theory of Personal Income Taxation (1870–1920)

Hansen's dissertation (1996) is an impressive, highly valuable, and thorough study on the problems of income taxation in Germany. These problems were also extensively discussed in Dutch economic literature around 1900. Several authors took part in the discussion, and some were also involved as politicians. They are referred to as the Dutch School in public finance. The discussions in the Netherlands were of a distinctive character as far as the tax rate (progression) is concerned. With regard to the tax base (the concept of income) there is in the case of the reform of the income tax in 1915, via in particular Treub, close affinity to that thinking in Germany, that is so eminently analyzed by Hansen.     

老龄化是新世纪我国面临的严峻挑战

本首先展望了21世纪我国人口老龄化的发展前景,指出在未来50年中,我国将处于高速度、高水平的老龄化发展进程之中,65岁及以上老年人口将从8000多万增至3亿以上,这对尚处于社会主义初级阶段的国家来说,无疑是个巨大冲击和严峻挑战;分析了老龄化的特殊性及其对社会经济发展所带来的深刻影响和至关重要的制久作用;提出了迎接老龄化挑战是个关系全局性、战略性的重大问题,必须采取有中国特色的正确战略选择。     

Effect of financial sector development and FDI inflow on employment rate in South Asia: New empirical evidence from ARDL approach

The current analysis aims to explore the empirical nexus between financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, and employment rate. To attain this aim, we collect 30 years of annual data over the period 1990 to 2019 from South Asian economies and employ the autoregressive dynamic least square (ARDL) model for regression analysis. The implication of the ARDL model was subject to the mixed stationarity status of the series as assessed by unit root testing. The robustness of the analysis was checked by employing the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models. The statistical analysis infers that both financial development and FDI inflow enhance the employment rate in the South Asia region. In addition, the empirical analysis infers that the gross capital formation, economic growth, and export volume have a positive while the population growth rate has a negative effect on the employment rate. The impact of underlying explanatory variables was found significant only in long run. The estimated coefficient values in the case of FMOLS and DOLS models support the direction of the relationship between explanatory variables and employment rate, implying the robustness of the analysis. The findings of the current analysis can be used to devise efficient economic policies to cope with the encroaching issue of unemployment in the South Asia region. This study offers the robustness to existing literature and complements the literature by exploring the underlying arrangement of study to the whole South Asia group.     

对日本少子化问题的新思考

人口少子化是日本政府面临的一个重大课题。首先分析了日本少子化的现状、成因及其对经济社会的影响,然后重点探讨了日本政府的少子化对策并阐述了日本政府在少子化对策上存在的问题。最后在上述分析的基础上为日本政府解决少子化问题在政策方面提出了几点建议。     

我国高投资率、低消费率现象研究

从20世纪90年代以来,高投资率、低消费率现象一直伴随着我国的经济增长。该现象和我国转轨经济的特殊性有密切的关系。公共品较低的供给效率、劳动要素的弱势地位、企业投资的预算软约束等是形成该现象的重要原因。因此,该现象具有长期性。我们应该致力于改变这些制约因素。     

血液样品中乙醇稳定性的实验研究

目的考察在不同存放条件下含乙醇的血液样品中乙醇浓度的变化情况。方法采用顶空-气相色谱法,以异丙醇为内标,对存放条件不同的血液样品中乙醇进行检测。结果冷冻(-10℃)条件存放1至30天,血液样品中乙醇含量无显著变化;冷藏(4℃)条件存放1至30天,血液样品中乙醇含量变化不显著;室温(28℃~33℃)条件存放1至30天,血液样品中乙醇含量显著改变。结论含有乙醇的血液样品,在冷冻、冷藏条件下可较稳定的存放30天;在室温条件下存放30天血液样品中乙醇浓度发生显著变化,不可在此条件下存放。     

新加四妙汤治疗痛风性关节炎36例临床观察

目的:观察新加四妙汤治疗痛风性关节炎的疗效。方法:将痛风性关节炎患者64例分为两组,中药组36例予新加四妙汤治疗,西药组28例予立加利仙(苯溴马隆)及芬必得治疗,观察两组治疗前后临床疗效、血尿酸及血沉的变化。结果:治疗组在改善临床症状,降低血尿酸、血沉等方面优于对照组(P<0.05)。结论:新加四妙汤对痛风性关节炎有较好的疗效,能够降低痛风性关节炎患者的血尿酸和血沉。