A Bayesian approach to estimate skeletal age-at-death utilizing dental wear

In the forensic context, teeth are often recovered in mass disasters, armed conflicts, and mass graves associated with human rights violations. Therefore, for victim identification, techniques utilizing the dentition to estimate the first parameters of identity (e.g., age) can be critical. This analysis was undertaken to apply a Bayesian statistical method, transition analysis, based on the Gompertz-Makeham (GM) hazard model, to estimate individual ages-at-death for Balkan populations utilizing dental wear. Dental wear phases were scored following Smith's eight-phase ordinal scoring method and chart. To estimate age, probability density functions for the posterior distributions of age for each tooth phase are calculated. Transition analysis was utilized to generate a mean age-of-transition from one dental wear phase to the next. The age estimates are based on the calculated age distribution from the GM hazard analysis and the ages-of-transition. To estimate the age-at-death for an individual, the highest posterior density region for each phase is calculated. By using a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate age, the population's age distribution is taken into account. Therefore, the age estimates are reliable for the Balkan populations, regardless of population or sex differences. The results showed that a vast amount of interpersonal variation in dental wear exists within the current sample and that this method may be most useful for classifying unknown individuals into broad age cohorts rather than small age ranges.     

Assessing the (eco)macroeconomic performance index of India: A data envelopment analysis approach

The prime objective of this article is to construct a robust macroeconomic performance (MEP) index of the Indian economy using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. Seven major macro indicators, namely, economic growth, employment rate, terms of trade, inflation rate, fiscal deficit, pollution, and climate change are used to compute MEP and Eco‐MEP indices of the Indian economy from 1980–1981 to 2018–2019. Overall, both the MEP and Eco‐MEP index scores have quite similar best performing years worst performing years, and have also captured the major events that affected adversely the Indian economy during the past decades. The trend in the overall performance of the Indian economy was better in the 1980s and the 1990s but has deteriorated since 2000. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approaches to cointegration methods are used to test the robustness/utility of these indices. The estimated results show that MEP and Eco‐MEP have a positive impact on private investment, foreign investment inflows, foreign direct investment, and a negative effect on the current account deficit. Hence, the suggested composite MEP index is stable, robust and truly captures the economic performance of India. The constructed MEP composite index may be used by foreign investors, rating agencies, private investors, and policymakers for their planning and decision‐making processes.     

呼唤中国人文社会科学的原创性——“中国问题与理论原创”高层学术论坛综述

如何面对中国自己的问题走向理论原创,摆脱当前理论界依附西方问题和嫁接中西理论的所谓"创新泛化"现象,如何深化理论原创的一些难点和疑点、并将理论原创落实到实践层面,告别理论界空谈理论创新的现象,是本论坛讨论的热点话题。会议汇集文、哲、法各界著名学者讨论人文社会科学共同的基本观念和思维方式的"中国化改造"问题,在学术界尚属首次。会议提出的"中国人自己的理想生活图景"、"中国式的独立观、自由观等观念的建设"、"中国理论原创的前提需要做哪些工作"等命题,使本次论坛收效显著。     

A solid-phase microextraction method for the detection of ignitable liquids in fire debris

A solid-phase microextraction (SPME) procedure involving direct contact between the SPME fibers and the solid matrix and subsequent gas chromatography/mass spectrometric analysis for the detection of accelerants in fire debris is described. The extraction performances of six fibers (100 mum polydimethylsiloxane, 65 mum polydimethylsiloxane-divinylbenzene, 85 mum polyacrylate, 85 mum carboxen-polydimethylsiloxane, 70 mum Carbowax-divinylbenzene, and 50/30 mum divinylbenzene-Carboxen-polydimethylsiloxane) were investigated by directly immersing the fibers into gasoline, kerosene, and diesel fuel. For simulated fire debris, in the direct contact extraction method, the SPME fiber was kept in contact with the fire debris matrix during extraction by penetrating plastic bags wrapping the sample. This method gave comparable results to the headspace SPME method in the extraction of gasoline and kerosene, and gave an improved recovery of low-volatile components in the extraction of diesel fuel from fire debris. The results demonstrate that this procedure is suitable as a simple and rapid screening method for detecting ignitable liquids in fire debris packed in plastic bags.     

Hair analysis to document non-fatal pesticide intoxication cases

We reported two non-fatal cases of intoxication with pesticides namely alachlor and carbofuran. Hair stand samples were collected from two men approximately 1 year after alachlor intoxication for case 1, and 14 days after the last exposure for case 2. Hair analysis was performed using a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method. In case 1, alachlor was detected in the 5 analysed hair segments (concentrations between 12 and 136 pg/mg) and its metabolites were not detected. In case 2, carbofuran and its main metabolite (3-hydroxycarbofuran) were detected in the hair strand (global analysis) at the concentrations of 207 and 164 pg/mg, respectively. However, additional data are required in order to interpret such results.     

Application of discriminant analysis to differentiate between incorporation of cocaine and its congeners into hair and contamination

The requirement to differentiate between incorporation and external contamination of drugs into hair is undisputed, in particular when dealing with compounds which are administered by sniffing or inhalation (e.g. cocaine). With the aim of making this discrimination, hair samples from cocaine (COC) users (group IN) and seized cocaine samples (group OUT) were compared regarding the parameters benzoylecgonine (BZE), ecgonine methyl ester (EME), ecgonine (ECG), anhydroecgonine methyl ester (AEME), cocaethylene (CE) and norcocaine (NCOC). Since most of these compounds may be minor by-products of COC or be formed by biotransformation or chemical degradation, the stability of each substance was carefully examined. COC was found to be converted into significant amounts of BZE, EME and ECG even under mild extraction conditions, while traces of NCOC proved to be a ubiquitous by-product of COC. Cocaine positive hairs and seized cocaine samples (diluted to relevant concentrations) were equally preprocessed and analyzed by LC-MS-MS. Out of the metabolites listed above, NCOC, CE and AEME (each normalised to COC) were significantly increased in the incorporation group (i.e. hair samples from cocaine users). Based on this approach, a statistical discriminant analysis enabled us to make a prediction (and estimation of uncertainty) for each cocaine positive hair sample as to its likelihood of belonging to the group of cocaine users or of being contaminated.     

退休政策的经济学分析及调整

退休政策通过影响劳动力的投入和养老负担对社会产出和就业人口、退休人口的福利水平产生影响，因此要对退休政策进行调整须进行较为充分的经济论证。研究对单人经济的退休年龄分析显示：存在一个基于个人一生效用最大化的“最佳”退休年龄，可合理平衡一生总产出和退休后的休闲。同理，一个多人经济社会也存在一个平均的“最佳”退休年龄。研究的结论如下：现有的退休年龄政策背景下，中国将面临日益沉重的养老负担，说明中国的退休年龄政策亟须调整；延迟退休年龄至少在长期对就业无负面影响，且可增加GDP:将暂时多余的社保基金用于金融投资无助于社会养老负担的缓解，养老金空账运行并无问题。为完善中国的退休政策，研究提出适时延长退休年龄、提高养老金标准和降低养老保险费率、对职工上缴的养老保险实施记账等建议。     

模糊立法语言的语义学分析

法律以语言文字为载体。尽管法律人竭力为法律概念设定边界,但是大部分法律概念的内涵或外延依然是模糊的。在法律的创制过程中,合理使用模糊语言不但不会损害法律的明确性,相反倒可能有助于在不确定中寻求到确定性。     

工会理论政策研究的地位与作用论纲--兼论全国总工会理论政策研究的方向与方法

工会理论政策研究性质,首先是政治理论政策研究,又是经济理论政策研究,同时也是社会理论政策研究.改革开放以来,尽管中国工会理论政策研究已有相当成就,但就不断深化的改革事业以及工会运动的客观需求而言,其作用还是相当的不足或滞后.加强和改善工会理论政策研究,是实现工会工作市场化的基础和前提.全总的理论政策研究应该具有实践的前导性和理论政策的敏锐性,还应该实现学科化和社会化.