Perceived Sanction Threats and Projective Risk Sensitivity: Auto Theft,Carjacking, and the Channeling Effect

Although sanction threats promote fear, among committed offenders, that fear can become a resource with which to sculpt emerging crime preferences. In such cases, criminality is not deterred but channeled. We explore the channeling process here as it relates to auto theft and carjacking. Our qualitative findings reveal that auto thieves are reluctant to embrace the violence of carjacking due to concerns over sanction threat severity they attributed to carjacking—both formal (higher sentences) and informal (victim resistance and retaliation). Meanwhile, the carjackers are reticent to enact auto theft because of the more uncertain and putatively greater risk of being surprised by victims, a fear that appears to overcome the enhanced long-term formal penalty of taking a vehicle by force. We examine the implications of offenders’ decision-making for the analytic intersection of rational choice and deterrence, offering the notion of projective risk sensitivity to encapsulate the process.     

Make and Buy—An Alternative to Make or Buy? An Investigation of Four Theoretical Explanations in Danish Municipalities

The question of whether public organizations should provide services themselves or buy them from external suppliers has become increasingly relevant due to public-sector modernization. The literature has focused on it as a question of either make or buy. Contrarily, we focus on the reasons for public organizations to simultaneously produce and contract out similar services. The article investigates different theoretical explanations for concurrent make and buy. A survey of Danish municipalities shows that make and buy seems to be a steady choice. However, the results show little support for the theoretical explanations indicating the need for more public-oriented explanations.     

文化传承创新视域下的高校思想政治教育

高校开展思想政治教育工作的重要目的是为了实现文化的传承创新,两者之间是辩证统一的关系。从高等教育的基本职能、大学生思想现状等来看,高校在开展思想政治教育工作时,需要通过以下三个方面加强文化传承创新：一是要增强思想政治教育的人文内涵和底蕴,不断加强校园文化建设;二是要坚持思想政治教育课程改革创新,以文化教育为载体,做到政治性与文化性兼具;三是要坚持以人为本,培养大学生文化自觉和自信,以实现思想政治教育、自我教育双赢。     

Beyond Rational Choice: the Hot/Cool Perspective of Criminal Decision Making

This paper proposes a general framework of criminal decision making that assumes both ‘cool’ cognition and ‘hot’ affect, i.e. feelings, to influence criminal choice. Drawing from judgment and decision making research and social psychology, the hot/cool perspective extends rational choice and deterrence theories by explaining how affect is likely to influence criminal decisions alongside cognitive considerations, such as the perceived costs and benefits of crime. It is shown how the hot/cool perspective offers a more realistic account of criminal decision making processes than existing decision models and approaches and also allows for the explanation of criminal behaviors that are difficult to explain in terms of rational choice.     

论声纹鉴定意见的表述形式

本文针对目前国内外讨论比较热烈的声纹鉴定意见表述问题进行了评述.首先介绍了实践中正在使用的听觉分析法、声谱比对分析法、声学分析法、听觉-声学分析法和说话人自动识别五种鉴定方法,指出了各种方法的优缺点;然后对现存的二元判决、可能性等级、似然比和英国立场声明四种鉴定意见表述形式进行了介绍和评析,通过分析发现,上述四种意见表述形式都存在一定的问题,实践中选择何种形式表述鉴定意见要综合考虑其科学性、逻辑性、现实性和可行性等多种价值选项;最后认为解决该问题的根本方法是各相关领域的专家应加强在鉴定方法上的合作性的基础研究.     

服务型政府视域中的价值取向和路径选择

服务型政府的建设是深化行政管理体制改革的重中之重。"以人为本"是服务型政府的价值追求,"以人为本"、以公民权利为本位以及公众利益最大化是服务型政府的首要目标。如何才能建设好服务型政府是摆在我国行政体制改革面前的重大课题和任务。在对服务型政府科学内涵分析的基础上,探讨了服务型政府价值取向及路径选择问题,以期在理论和实践中为新疆更好地推动服务型政府的建设提供政策建议。     

TARGET CHOICE DURING EXTREME EVENTS: A DISCRETE SPATIAL CHOICE MODEL OF THE 2011 LONDON RIOTS

Riots are extreme events, and much of the early research on rioting suggested that the decision making of rioters was far from rational and could only be understood from the perspective of a collective mind. In the current study, we derive and test a set of expectations regarding rioter spatial decision making developed from theories originally intended to explain patterns of urban crime when law and order prevail—crime pattern and social disorganization theory—and consider theories of collective behavior and contagion. To do this, we use data for all riot‐related incidents that occurred in London in August 2011 that were detected by the police. Unlike most studies of victimization, we use a random utility model to examine simultaneously how the features of the destinations selected by rioters, the origins of their journeys, and the characteristics of the offenders influence offender spatial decision making. The results demonstrate that rioter target choices were far from random and provide support for all three types of theory, but for crime pattern theory in particular. For example, rioters were more likely to engage in the disorder close to their home location and to select areas that contained routine activity nodes and transport hubs, and they were less likely to cross the Thames River. In terms of contagion, rioters were found to be more likely to target areas that had experienced rioting in the previous 24 hours. From a policy perspective, the findings provide insight into the types of areas that may be most vulnerable during riots and why this is the case, and when particular areas are likely to be at an elevated risk of this type of disorder.     

探究民营银行发展之路

民营银行之争由来已久。中国的银行业不缺数量,缺的是结构,缺草根金融。该文回顾了民营银行艰难的探索历程,指出应科学界定民营银行经营范围和服务对象,消除制度障碍和现实阻碍,秉承先试点,后推广,循序渐进的发展思路,不断完善顶层设计,提升自身实力,让民营银行逐渐成长为金融体系中一支审要的力量。     

The normalizing role of rationalist assumptions in the institutional embedding of neoliberalism

The political economy of Britain over the past three decades provides an interesting example of the consolidation, normalization and institutionalization of a new economic paradigm – neoliberalism. As such, it serves as a potentially instructive focus for debate both about the conditions under which economic paradigms are replaced and consolidated and the evolution of such paradigms through the process of institutionalization. In this paper I suggest that the institutionalization of this new economic paradigm has been associated with the shift from a normative to a normalized and necessitarian neoliberalism. I examine the role played by rationalist assumptions in this extended process of normalization-institutionalization. After presenting a stylized account of the evolution of British neoliberalism, I show how New Labour's monetary policy regime is the heir to the legacy of monetarism and its agenda of labour-market reform is the heir to Thatcherism's supply-side economics. I suggest that the time-inconsistency thesis and the business school globalization thesis have played an equivalent role, for New Labour, to that played for the new right by monetarism and supply-side economics in legitimating neoliberalism. In this way neoliberalism has been normalized. In the final sections of the paper I reflect on the implications of the normalized and necessitarian character of neoliberalism in Britain for its contestability and for democratic economic governance more broadly.     

Not all election winners are equal: Satisfaction with democracy and the nature of the vote

It is well known that individuals who voted for the winning party in an election tend to be more satisfied with democracy than those who did not. However, many winners deviate from their first choice when voting. It is argued in this article that the mechanisms that engender satisfaction operate less forcefully among such winners, thereby lessening the impact of victory on satisfaction. Results show that the gap in satisfaction over electoral losers among these ‘non‐optimal winners’ is, in fact, much smaller than that of ‘optimal winners’, who voted in line with their expressed preferences. A win matters more for those who have a bigger stake in victory. The article further explores how the effect of optimal victory on satisfaction varies across electoral systems.