Does survey mode matter for studying electoral behaviour? Evidence from the 2009 German Longitudinal Election Study

Online surveys are becoming increasingly popular in the social sciences, particularly in electoral research. However, several studies have shown that participants who take part in online surveys differ significantly from those in other surveys. Still, since electoral research aims primarily at explaining voting behaviour (i.e., looks at slopes and intercepts in statistical model output), online surveys are deemed to be useful tools if models based on this data source arrive at similar conclusions than models based e.g. on random-sample face-to-face or telephone surveys. This paper analyses these relationships by comparing models of voting behaviour based on data from various survey modes with different sample selections conducted by the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) 2009. The results indicate that the data quality of the different survey types is comparable; online surveys are thus useful for electoral research.     

汇率制度选择理论综述

传统汇率制度选择理论的关注点为固定汇率制和浮动汇率制的优劣之争,而新兴汇率制度选择理论的关注点则为中间汇率制度和两极汇率制度的优劣之争,由此派生出了各种汇率制度选择理论。近年来,经济学家开始从可维持性和危机预防的角度出发来研究汇率制度的选择和安排,汇率制度选择理论的研究也从静态视角转向动态视角。     

计算机笔迹鉴定技术的文检视角分析

科学技术的发展使计算机笔迹鉴定技术日渐成熟并且逐步走入了文件检验实务领域。从文件检验尤其是笔迹鉴定业务的视角出发,业内人士需要对计算机笔迹鉴定系统的设计原理、算法思想、发展方向有整体的了解。伪装书写等因素使“能全面、准确识别特征字符的最优算法”难以开发出来,这与综合评断的复杂性共同决定了此类系统应为鉴定人员快速、准确地作出结论而提供辅助作用。构建笔迹鉴定的客观标准,在人工检验中充分发挥计算机高效、客观的自动初筛功能,应成为笔迹鉴定的发展方向。     

加强社会建设和管理的路径选择

在建设社会主义和谐社会的大背景下,如何加强社会建设和管理,保持社会安定有序,是摆在我们面前的一项重要而紧迫的任务。加强社会建设和管理必须推动政府职能转变、建立完善的社会管理格局、整体推进社会管理体制改革、建立健全各种应急机制、妥善处理社会矛盾。     

基于操作系统补丁管理技术的研究

对于计算机系统及Internet来说,最大的安全威胁来自于系统的安全漏洞。如能从弥补操作系统本身的漏洞着手,致力于建立安全强壮的系统平台,扼杀病毒和黑客攻击的客观条件,则会收到良好的效果。     

地方政府绩效评估体系的路径选择——福建的分析

本文分析了地方政府绩效评估体系的内涵及其路径选择的实质,并从自上而下绩效评估与自"下"而上绩效评估两类活动的角度,勾勒了目前地方政府绩效评估体系的现状和发展趋势,提出通过调整评估系统的构成要素组合来发展与完善地方政府绩效评估体系。以福建省绩效评估体系的演进为例,指出发展地方政府绩效评估体系的可能路径在于,通过平衡参与评估各方的利益需求,充分发挥政府内外各个利益相关者的作用,运用综合评估标准,由各方协商确定评估指标的权重,谨慎使用评估结果,从而改善整个评估体系的绩效。     

Two types of economic voting: How economic conditions jointly affect vote choice and turnout

The economic voting literature mostly looks at vote choice, ignoring potential effects on turnout. Studies that do focus on the latter often ignore the former, and come to contradictory conclusions. I develop a model of economic voting that jointly incorporates vote choice and abstention due to alienation or indifference. Analyzing ten elections with validated turnout data and conducting empirically informed simulations, I make two contributions. First, I show that “turnout switching” accounts for up to one third of total economic voting. This second type of economic voting is more common when the number of parties is low and responsibility is dispersed. Second, I show that a bad economy moves some people to abstain while having the opposite effect on others. The aggregate effect is ambiguous and related to macro-conditions in a non-linear way. This explains contradictory findings in the literature.     

传统手工艺传承发展中的知识产权问题研究

随着非物质文化遗产保护工程的不断推进,与市场关系最为密切的传统手工艺的有关权利主体已愈来愈意识到知识产权在传统手工艺保护中的重要性,因此,运用著作权、专利权、地理标志权、商标权等知识产权权项来保护自己的传统手工艺的权利主体们逐渐增多,但实践中也暴露出诸如知识产权权项的选择、技术标准的制定、维权的艰难等一系列突出问题,必须采取恰当路径与模式为传统手工艺提供切实有效的知识产权保护。     

Democratic Governance: A Genealogy

This essay draws on my book, Democratic Governance (Princeton University Press, 2010), to provide a genealogy of governance and to explore its implications for democracy. My arguments can be quickly stated: governance rose and spread as a consequence of new modernist theories and the public sector reforms that were inspired by these theories; policy actors respond to the challenges of governance by supplementing representative institutions with yet more modernist expertise.