The influence of police interventions and alternative income sources on the dynamic process of choosing crime as a career

This paper demonstrates how a rational process of choice may be influenced by both deterrence forces and economic opportunities. This choice is modeled by a dynamic (Markov) process which captures self-sorting by youth among the categories of innocents, desisters, and persisters. in crime. A key to the results is the introduction of the perceived probability of punishment and its influence on the sorting process. The analysis shows how this force and the availability, or lack of, economic opportunities or income sources modify transition probabilities. The long-run consequences will be a larger subpopulation of individuals who have experimented with crime but subsequently revert to crime-free behavior and a smaller subpopulation of individuals who commit a greater share of crime. Empirical evidence is based on data from the New Youth Cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys.     

伪装语音的自动话者识别研究

本文以语音自动话者识别系统为平台,对实际案件中出现频率较高的10种伪装语音类型进行自动话者识别测试。通过对20位发音人的正常语音和10种类型伪装语音的话者辨认和话者确认测试,分析不同语音伪装类型对自动话者识别的影响。该结果对于深入认识伪装语音的特性及其话者识别研究具有重要意义,也为自动话者识别技术的改进提供了参考。     

布坎南宪政规则理论研究

立宪民主是宪法性规则约束下的一种有限民主,立宪规则理论是布坎南宪政民主理论的核心内容.布坎南相信一套政治和经济活动的宪法性规则可以有效约束政府行为.但是由于布坎南的规则理论太过理想化而招致很多批评,使得布坎南不得不对其规则理论进行不断修正,其规则理论经过了一致同意规则、超多数裁定规则、普遍性原则等几种形式流变.通过对布坎南的规则内容及规则形式流变的研究,有利于我们进一步看清布坎南规则理论的困境和乌托邦色彩,有助于我们深入地把握其立宪民主理论的内容实质.     

“Voluntary PR Voting” in the Election of Swiss Regional Governments

This paper analyses citizens' voting behaviour in the April 2011 elections of the regional governments in the cantons of Zurich and Lucerne. These elections were conducted with a majoritarian electoral system in a multi‐member district. In both cantons, the number of candidates in competition is relatively limited due to “voluntary PR”, that is, a coordination effort among parties that aims to achieve a proportional distribution of government seats. If citizens cast all of their votes, they must support candidates from various ideological camps. Alternatively, they can limit the number of votes used to cast a more concentrated vote. This paper examines what factors lead citizens to cast an ideologically concentrated or dispersed vote. The results show that the degree of ideological concentration of citizens' votes is related to partisan preferences, strategic considerations, political knowledge, and the level of satisfaction with the government performance.     

马克思主义科学方法论“合主体性”、“合规律性”原生态

把握历史发展的“合主体性”“与合规律性”选择,是马克思主义科学方法论实践理性主题,而这个“双合”性的积淀与趋势是历史不同于自然史的本质特点,也是马克思主义科学方法论实践能动选择的根本法则。     

International Public Goods and Agency Problems in Treaty Organizations

This paper analyzes the extent to which international public goods and agency problems are present in international organizations. A noncooperative model of the funding choices of donor countries and the subsequent policy choices of an international agency is used to develop hypotheses about the behavior of ideal and problematic international agencies. The analysis suggests that international agencies are likely to be underfunded and undermonitored relative to that which maximizes the joint interest of signatory countries. The funding and policy implications of the model are tested using data from the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The statistical results suggest that (i) treaty obligations affect behavior of Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 countries, (ii) GEF’s allocation of grants generally advances the international environmental agenda, and (iii) significant free-riding and agency problems exist in GEF as it is presently organized. Overall, the empirical results suggest that treaty organizations may be relatively effective, if not perfect, instruments of international public policy.      

新公共管理时代的理性官僚制

我国虽然处在西方公共管理的改革时代,但并不完全具备实行新公共管理改革的各种社会条件,应该谨慎借鉴,而且与西方发达国家成熟的官僚制相比,我国并没有建立起严格的、韦伯意义上的理性官僚制。理性官僚制更适合我国建设新型工业化国家的需要。     

政府危机治理中公民有序参与之路径选择

在政府危机治理中,应运用治理观念改造政府、制定专门的危机治理法律法规、建立政府与社会组织的合作治理机制、提高政府官员引入公民参与的积极性等途径,实现公民有序参与危机治理。     

刑事侦查模式及其诉讼理念分析

刑事侦查模式不仅仅指刑事侦查结构,还应当包括结构下侦查权的运作方式。不同侦查模式的形成是由不同的刑事诉讼理念作用的结果。而探析这些理念,不仅可以为客观评价我国现行侦查模式提供价值标准,也可以为我国刑事侦查模式的重构与完善提供必要的价值选择。     

党的执政能力建设面临的新挑战及其应对——以网络政治为视角

网络技术的迅猛发展引发了一系列新的网络政治现象并改变着传统的政治生态。网络政治对党的执政能力建设提出了新的挑战和要求,因此,如何顺应网络政治发展的要求,积极应对挑战,加强党的执政能力建设,就成为亟待研究和解决的新课题。