大数据视阈下公职人员廉政风险动态监测及预警

廉政风险防控具有前瞻性和高效益,属治本之策。大数据为公职人员廉政风险防控提供了新的研究视角和方法,可通过协同联动的廉政风险防控平台深度挖掘规模剧增的海量数据进行动态监测及预警。基于目前理论研究和实践现状,以公职人员为无差别微观研究主体,将公职人员廉政风险预警流程设计为廉政风险信息采集、廉政风险信息分析、廉政风险信息评估、廉政风险信息处理四部分,利用大数据量化研判,实现公职人员个体相关数据的分析评估和实时监测,可及时防控和遏制腐败行为的发生。     

The Programme de recherche en démographie historique: past,present and future developments in family reconstitution

The Programme de recherche en démographie historique (Historical Demography Research Programme) (PRDH), founded in 1966 and based at the Département de Démographie of the Université de Montréal, has since its inception featured a central project, a family reconstitution database of Quebec’s Catholic population from 1621 to 1799 named the Registre de la population du Québec ancien (Population Register of Historic Quebec) (RPQA). This article, which marks the fiftieth anniversary of the project, explores the development of the RPQA over the five decades in the context of similar international databases, explains the current state of the database as well as our record linkage methodology, describes an important collaboration now underway to build a larger Quebec historical data infrastructure, outlines new and renewed international collaborations, and summarizes research conducted using these data as well as future research possibilities. The particular geographic context, historical development and manageable colonial population size of Quebec favoured family reconstitution of the whole colony from the beginning of the project. Today, the RPQA comprises 438,193 individual biographies and 74,000 family files encompassing up to nine generations. To reconstitute families, we must identify and incorporate into the database all demographic events, including those whose existence can only be inferred through other sources. Future efforts to link nineteenth-century parish acts will need to deal with large case counts, mixed Catholic–Protestant marriages, and increased geographic and social mobility. The integration of complementary data will provide information on household co-residence, occupations, help track the destinies of mixed-religion persons and persons outside nuclear families and provide additional points of observation.     

司法的科技应用：两个维度的观察与分析

司法智能化,诸如数字技术的司法应用,具有两面性。在我国,相关问题的研究主要着眼于网络犯罪领域如何利用科技手段打击犯罪,对于政府权力的限制及其相关的法律的正当程序问题,研究与讨论尚不够充分。可以从两个方面探讨司法的科技应用,特别是大数据司法应用涉及的两个维度问题,一是犯罪控制维度,二是正当程序维度,它们在各自含义中体现了实体正义和程序正义的观念。通过对司法技术性问题进行分析,发现我国法院和检察院作为司法机关,对于侦查权的司法控制还有很大的拓展空间,大数据应用为司法机关加强对侦查权的控制提供了新的契机。     

守定与融合：大数据时代的刑事诉讼方法论省思

大数据分析方法在呈现科学性、有效性的同时,也具有实证主义与功利主义的特质。当前,亟需对刑事诉讼领域的方法误读与失范进行匡正,守定教义学的价值前提,赋予大数据分析方法以程序正义属性,发掘程序正义的数字特性。增添数据真实性、可知性要求,进而保障当事人有权对数据加以更正,有权针对算法的合理性、有效性进行辩护;同时,为大数据分析方法的运用确立非歧视性、有利于被告人的价值导向;此外,应确立“权利而非权力”“辅助而非替代”“定量而非定性”“证伪而非证实”四个立场。     

Regional autocratic linkage and regime survival

In this article, the effects of regional autocratic linkage on the survival of autocratic regimes are analysed. Scholars have suggested that regional factors shape regime survival through processes of diffusion. However, in most accounts, diffusion is simply derived from characteristics of the region, such as the number or proportion of regional autocracies. In contrast, it is argued here that it is the actual linkages between countries that must be examined. Regional political, economic and social ties between autocratic regimes create domestic and external stakes in the regime, counterweigh democratisation pressure and facilitate autocratic learning. The study employs the average volume of trade, migration and diplomatic exchanges between autocratic regimes within a region as proxies for regional autocratic linkage, and asserts that regional autocratic linkage is on the rise. Applying Cox survival models on a dataset of regional autocratic linkage and regime survival between 1946 and 2009, it is found that regional autocratic linkage significantly reduces the likelihood of autocratic regime breakdown. These effects hold when the proportion of autocratic regimes within a region is controlled for, suggesting that one must look beyond the characteristics of the countries within a region and focus on the ties and linkages between them.     

超大社会视角的中央与地方关系

超大社会是中国最大国情。以超大社会的视角研究中央与地方关系,具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。中国历朝各代的兴衰,当今世界其他主要大型社会的集权与分权的权衡,为构建适合超大社会发展要求的中央与地方关系提供了足以借鉴的智慧。随着各项改革的不断深入,中央与地方关系需要进行相应的调整,以实现中央与地方权限的集分平衡。     

从联锁社群到社会网络：走向民间交流的两岸关系理论

民间交流日渐成为两岸交流的重心,与此相应,两岸关系理论需要从＂国家中心＂走向＂社会中心＂。但是既有的＂联锁社群＂理论在解释两岸民间交流时仍存在诸多缺陷,特别是对＂关系＂本身的忽视;而＂关系网＂恰恰是两岸民间交流的主要媒介,是＂两岸社会＂的基本组织模式。其中,强关系传递了情感、信任和影响力,弱关系传递了信息。社会网络比身份认同对两岸民间行动者具有更大的影响力。     

山东省职工队伍素质的调查、分析以及相关对策

在＂十二五＂期间,山东省要实现和巩固经济强省的发展目标,就必须高度重视全省职工队伍素质的继续提升。要进一步健全职工教育和培训机制,建立和完善人才考核和评价机制,充分发挥工会这个＂大学校＂的积极作用,倾力打造一支宏大的高素质的职工队伍,从而为山东的经济社会发展提供雄厚的智力和技术支持。     

论大部制下政府业务流程优化与再造

各级政府如何适应中央大部制改革？一个可行的办法是运用网络技术,根据公众的需求,打破传统的部门分工制管理模式,按照业务流程规律,进行优化与再造,形成面向公众的扁平式管理体制,以实现政府管理体制与社会主义市场经济同步发展。     

Trade‐Offs,Limitations, and Promises of Big Data in Social Science Research

The promise of “big data” is a grand one. The collection and aggregation of massive datasets and the development of analytical tools by which to study these data is part of cutting‐edge efforts across scientific disciplines, with social, behavioral, and economic sciences leading the way in many of these efforts. There has been a recent rise in National Science Foundation funding for “big data” research across directorates that coincides with scholarly, public, and governmental attention to the topic. Nonetheless, there are limitations and trade‐offs to “big data” research, particularly as it corresponds to scientific modes of inquiry and the limited range of topics that fall under its umbrella, that must be recognized and incorporated into the general understanding of its long‐term promise.