大数据，认知与计划经济——与何大安教授商榷

数据是明晰的,客观的,而信息本质上是主观的,隐含的和实践的,数据被个体理解之后才会转化成“他的”信息。人们在使用数据之前先会判断该数据的重要性,这种判断因人因时因地而异,而大数据本身并不能替个人做出这样的判断。信息分散在无数人的头脑中,不能被某个头脑或超级计算机集中掌握。个体确定目标后,才能决定把什么样的数据作为手段来实现自己的目标,否则他会在海量的数据面前不知所措。数据是人们行动的产物。作为“历史”,数据本身不能告诉人们未来他们应该做什么。另外,没有市场的运行,甚至数据本身都不可能产生。正确的进路应该是“让个体的知识得以充分利用”,而不是何大安教授提出的“改善个体的认知”。何大安教授预设的“智慧大脑”类似于计划经济中的“中央计划委员会”,他对“普通大脑”的认知和“智慧大脑”的认知趋同的欲求,也正如中央计划委员会试图让普通大众服从于它的指令。正是市场对分散信息的分散利用使个体在固有的认知局限的情况下也有可能实现自己的目标,而大数据不能扮演同样的角色。何大安教授有关认知与大数据的讨论仍属于新古典经济学的“最大化”范式,他没意识到市场是一个互动（交换）过程,最大化范式并不适用。     

大数据时代的智慧辩护

以大数据、人工智能等为代表的智能科技正在我国刑事司法空间内主导着全面而深远的变革。相较于法检系统面对这场时代潮流所进行的主动、全面的自我革新,智能科技虽在刑事辩护领域得到了一定程度的应用,但技术与业务的交融协同有限,故总体上仍停留在初级发展阶段。实际上,刑事辩护可在大数据驱动下实现向智慧辩护的转型,包括改变律师工作方式,使之从办公自动化跨越为业务智能化;在卷宗审阅、证据审查判断、类案/关联法条推送、司法规律挖掘等工作中强化科技支撑成分,辅助律师作出辩护决策;以及重塑业务导向定位,积极开拓风险防控型业务领域。但在转型过程中,应注意在数据来源上另辟蹊径,在借鉴法院、检察院经验时因地制宜地作出调整,尤其是在法律与技术的融合中坚持住法律的主导地位,把握好智慧的根源所在。     

Global international relations and the Arab Spring: the Maghreb’s challenge to the EU

Abstract

This article contributes to the Global International Relations project by critically evaluating the roles ascribed to Europe and the EU by Levitsky and Way in their model for explaining regime transitions. Focusing primarily on their international dimensions of linkage and leverage, it assesses both the normative geopolitical underpinnings and explanatory power of their thesis, drawing on the North African cases of Tunisia and Mauritania at the start of the Arab Spring to illustrate and substantiate its observations and arguments. It concludes that the EU’s failure to discipline either country’s competitive authoritarian regime raises important questions about the validity of the privileged role in which they cast Europe.     

‘Look into my eyes’: can an instruction to maintain eye contact facilitate lie detection?

Abstract

Traditionally, research on offender profiling has investigated the relationships between offender behaviour and offender characteristics. However, evidence about offender behaviour is not the only evidence available at a crime scene. This study extends previous collaborative research between forensic scientists and psychologists (e.g. Bond & Sheridan, Journal of Forensic Science, 52, 1122–1128, 2007) to investigate how forensic science can assist in the psychological process of offender profiling. Specifically, the potential utility of footwear impression evidence in the task of offender profiling is investigated. Using 155 domestic burglaries, the consistency and homology assumptions underlying offender profiling were tested. Evidence supportive of both assumptions is reported. A multiple regression analysis identified significant relationships between cost of footwear and employment status, age of offender, and the relative deprivation of his/her residence.     

Japan's military research and development: A high technology deterrent

Abstract

This article examines the increased linkage between domestic and foreign policy that has been a consequence of democratization and globalization in Korea. It argues that while prior to 1987 foreign policy-making saw very little public input, and while democratization did not lead to a weakening of domestic political institutions nor a rise in nationalism, it did open up domestic political space where foreign policy-making increasingly became part of the contentious electoral competition. The globalization policy, initiated with the purpose of raising Korea's international status, which has remained a goal of succeeding administrations, created a complex interdependency which led to a breakdown in the separation between the domestic and international, and that often brought with it a domestic backlash. As a consequence foreign policy-making, in the absence of a tradition of political compromise, increasingly runs the risk of either inconsistency, or even deadlock.     

How Large‐Scale Research Facilities Connect to Global Research

Policies for large‐scale research facilities (LSRFs) often highlight their spillovers to industrial innovation and their contribution to the external connectivity of the regional innovation system hosting them. Arguably, the particular institutional features of LSRFs are conducive for collaborative research. However, based on data on publications produced in 2006–2009 at the Neutron Science Directorate of Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee (United States), we find that internationalization of its collaborative research is restrained by coordination costs similar to those characterizing other institutional settings. Policies mandating LSRFs should consider that research prioritized on the basis of technological relevance limits the international reach of collaborations. Additionally, the propensity for international collaboration is lower for resident scientists than for those affiliated with domestic universities or government laboratories. Policies conceiving LSRFs as “knowledge attractors” therefore should consider the complementarities between research at a LSRF and in its academic context at a regional or national level.     

中国工会的五大优势

与西方国家工会相较,中国工会具有以下五大优势：一是社会主义制度的优势;二是企业民主管理制度的优势;三是工会性质和基本职能的优势;四是维权观念和维权机制的优势;五是组织体系和联系群众的优势。     

我国区域警务合作机制构建

现在我国的区域警务合作机制不论是在实施的效率、增加合作机会和层次以及警务资源的共享等方面还存在着很多的问题,这就要求我们要从建立新型的合作模式、更新现有的合作手段、转变原有的合作观念等方面努力完善我国的区域警务合作机制,只有这样才能进一步提高我国区域警务合作的工作效率、放大其实际效果,从而实现区域警务合作有效促进系统内部交流合作,控制社会面的目标。     

Farm to Non-Farm Employment Linkages and Pattern： An Analysis of Village Level Survey in Bangladesh

The widening of rural-urban continuum has accelerated the transformation of Bangladesh agriculture from subsistence toward commercialization. This has accompanied significant employment linkages and patterns in farm and non-farm sector. Modern rice production contributed to employment generation through backward and forward linkages. The field study of three villages measures farm to non-farm employment linkages for two major rice crops. The estimated backward, forward, and total linkages were 0.18, 0.43, and 0.61 for Boro rice and 0.14, 0.39, and 0.53 for Aman rice. For two crops as a whole, farm to non-farm total employment linkage coefficient was 0.58, which meant that total 100 man days of farm employment per hectare in farm production activities generated 58 man days of non-farm employment in various support services, processing, and marketing activities. Employment pattern in different months was more flexible for the farm workers than for non-farm workers. The availability of farm employment in a month varied from five to 25 days for farm workers, and from 22 to 27 days for non-farm workers. The findings imply that more investrnent in rice-based production system significantly increases non-farm employment opportunities. From national policy perspective, more research and development efforts should go into accelerating potential rural growth and non-farm sector development.     

新世纪新阶段的国防建设

本文从树立大国防观念、贯彻积极防御的国防战略方针、国防建设要以提高军队现代化为中心、走独立自主、自力更生的“跨越式”发展道路四个方面论述了新世纪新阶段加强我国国防建设的有关问题。