Women’s age at last childbearing and its determinants: a case study of Antwerp (Flanders,Belgium) on the basis of the multi-source COR* historical sample

Declines in the age at last childbearing in the first demographic transition reflected conscious changes in fertility behaviour during that period, in particular efforts to limit the total number of children. Such fertility limitation behaviour was the net result of ‘cultural causal factors’ on the one hand and ‘structural and economic causal factors’ on the other hand. This paper analyses the evolution of women’s age at last childbearing by reconstructing women’s life histories based on data from the multi-source COR* historical sample for Antwerp in the period 1846–1920. The paper also assesses the causes of this evolution through a number of theoretically grounded structural/economic, cultural and life course determinants, placing these concepts in a macro-micro framework of methodological individualism. For this purpose, in the first place a Kaplan-Meier analysis is applied to 10-year birth cohorts; a proportional hazard model is also applied to three different birth cohorts (mothers born before 1840; born in the period 1840–1859; and born after 1860); and a range of cultural and life course determinants are analysed, including women’s literacy status, marriage witness characteristics, the seasonality of marriages and births, and birth histories. The analysis confirms the decline in the age at last childbearing especially in the late cohort, and also highlights inter-cohort differences caused by cultural and life course determinants.     

人口老年化进程中的老年犯罪问题初探——以浙江省老年人犯罪为例

老年(龄)化是生产力不断进步,人类社会不断发展的必然趋势。我国自1999年进入老年(龄)化社会后,老年(龄)化速度大大高于世界其他国家。在快速老年(龄)化过程中产生了包括老年犯罪在内的诸多社会问题,解决这些问题才能更好地构建社会主义和谐社会。结合浙江省老年(龄)化实际及老年(龄)化过程中老年人犯罪发展变化实际,阐述两者间关系,提出遏制老年(龄)化进程中老年犯罪的对策。     

论当代大学生思想政治教育的时代特征

当代大学生的成长正处于我国经济转型、社会转轨的特殊时期,社会转型因素增加了思想政治教育工作的不确定性,使高校的思想政治教育工作面临着许多新的挑战。加强和改进大学生思想政治教育要充分体现与市场经济、改革开放、网络化社会相适应的时代特点。作为思想政治教育工作者,只有紧密地结合时代特征、促进我国和谐社会的构建、以人为本、不断地探寻思想政治教育的新方法新手段,才能使思想政治教育工作取得成效。     

Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases

The completion of the third molar roots has played an important role in ascertaining whether individuals may be at or over a legal threshold of age, often taken as 18 years. This study demonstrates that root apex completion in the third molar is relatively uninformative regarding the threshold of age 18 years in a sample of 1184 males, where mean age‐of‐attainment of root apex completion for third mandibular molars is about 19.4 years. This paper also considers the legal age threshold problem for cases where the third mandibular molar is not completely formed, and outlines the use of parametric models and Bayes’ factors to evaluate dental evidence in statistically appropriate ways. It attempts to resolve confusion over age‐within‐stage versus age‐of‐attainment, likelihood ratios versus other diagnostic tests, and prior odds for a case versus the prior density for an age distribution.     

Bone Area Histomorphometry

Quantifying the amount of cortical bone loss is one variable used in histological methods of adult age estimation. Measurements of cortical area tend to be subjective and additional information regarding bone loss is not captured considering cancellous bone is disregarded. We describe whether measuring bone area (cancellous + cortical area) rather than cortical area may improve histological age estimation for the sixth rib. Mid‐shaft rib cross‐sections (n = 114) with a skewed sex distribution were analyzed. Ages range from 16 to 87 years. Variables included: total cross‐sectional area, cortical area, bone area, relative bone area, relative cortical area, and endosteal area. Males have larger mean total cross‐sectional area, bone area, and cortical area than females. Females display a larger mean endosteal area and greater mean relative measure values. Relative bone area significantly correlates with age. The relative bone area variable will provide researchers with a less subjective and more accurate measure than cortical area.     

A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction

Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0–12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation.     

A Computational Framework for Age‐at‐Death Estimation from the Skeleton: Surface and Outline Analysis of 3D Laser Scans of the Adult Pubic Symphysis

In forensic anthropology, age‐at‐death estimation typically requires the macroscopic assessment of the skeletal indicator and its association with a phase or score. High subjectivity and error are the recognized disadvantages of this approach, creating a need for alternative tools that enable the objective and mathematically robust assessment of true chronological age. We describe, here, three fully computational, quantitative shape analysis methods and a combinatory approach that make use of three‐dimensional laser scans of the pubic symphysis. We report a novel age‐related shape measure, focusing on the changes observed in the ventral margin curvature, and refine two former methods, whose measures capture the flatness of the symphyseal surface. We show how we can decrease age‐estimation error and improve prior results by combining these outline and surface measures in two multivariate regression models. The presented models produce objective age‐estimates that are comparable to current practices with root‐mean‐square‐errors between 13.7 and 16.5 years.     

大鼠局灶性脑挫伤后Cdk5的表达变化

目的研究大鼠受到一定钝力打击造成中度脑损伤后,3h至10d脑组织Cdk5的表达规律及法医学意义。方法建立大鼠钝力性局灶性脑挫伤模型,应用免疫组织化学技术和免疫蛋白印迹技术观察脑损伤后不同时间脑组织中Cdk5表达变化。结果正常组、假手术组脑组织有少量Cdk5表达;实验组损伤后3h组、6h组Cdk5表达增高,12h组表达明显升高(P0.05);在24h达到峰值,3d组、5d组、7d组、10d组逐渐下降,并在7d组、10d组基本降至正常,与正常组、假手术组比较基本无差异性(P0.05)。结论大鼠钝力性脑挫伤后Cdk5在挫伤脑组织周边区表达量增多,并呈现单峰变化,随时间延长基本降至正常。Cdk5表达变化可为早期脑挫伤时间推断奠定基础,提供新的参考指标。     

上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径与年龄的关系

目的探讨汉族人上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径与年龄的关系。方法 2014年11月~2015年11月间,在一家三甲医院数据库中选择420例汉族人的口腔锥形束CT资料,根据年龄将所有研究对象分为6个组别(8~12岁、13~17岁、18~22岁、23~27岁、28~32岁、33~37岁,每组70例,男女各15例。对所有研究对象上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径进行测量,取釉牙骨质界距根尖3/4处,分析上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径与年龄的关系,比较男女上颌中切牙牙根直径。结果男性与女性上颌中切牙牙根直径比较具有差异显著性(P0.05);男性与女性上颌中切牙牙根管径比较具有差异显著性(P0.05);男性与女性上颌中切牙牙根直径与牙根管径之比比较具有差异显著性(P0.05);不同性别间上颌中切牙牙根直径与牙根管径之比与年龄具有一定的相关性(R~2=0.623,P0.05)。结论汉族人上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径与年龄的变化具有相关性,且男性根管管径减小趋势比女性更高。     

应用膝关节MRI T_2加权脂肪抑制像推断活体年龄

目的探索膝关节MRI T2加权脂肪抑制像(T2-FS)在法医年龄推断中的应用价值,建立安全可靠的四川汉族年龄推断方法。方法收集膝关节MRI 324例(男性170例,女性154例),年龄范围为10~30岁。采用西门子1.5T磁共振仪摄片,MRI参数:T2-FS TSE序列,矢状位。将股骨远端、胫骨近端骨骺发育分为6个等级并赋分,分析各指标性别差异及年龄相关性,建立年龄推断回归模型。结果男女性股骨远端、胫骨近端MRI等级与年龄呈正相关性,股骨远端与年龄的相关性男性0.687,女性0.661;胫骨近端与年龄的相关性男性0.684,女性0.488。股骨远端骨骺完全闭合,骺线消失的最小年龄男性18.42岁,女性19.36岁;胫骨近端男性骺线消失的最小年龄为16.93岁,女性为14.68岁。股骨远端等级1~3、5、6和胫骨近端等级1~3、5年龄分布性别差异不显著。分别建立男女年龄推断模型,男性年龄推断平均绝对误差(MAD)=2.90岁;女性年龄推断MAD=3.30岁。结论膝关节MRI T2-FS影像可作为活体年龄推断的指标之一,股骨远端等级6可作为判断18岁的指标之一。